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Tonix Pharma
(NASDAQ:TNXP)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-63.40% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial quality (large losses and heavy cash burn despite improving revenue) and very bearish technicals (price below all major moving averages with deeply weak momentum). These are partially offset by encouraging earnings-call signals of accelerating TONMYA launch metrics and expanding coverage, while corporate events add both upside (access expansion) and notable downside risk (generic patent challenge).
Positive Factors
TONMYA Commercial Momentum
Rapid TONMYA sales, prescription, and refill growth indicates meaningful early product adoption and improving patient persistence. If these trends continue, the commercial franchise can become a more durable revenue base and support operating leverage as access expands.
Negative Factors
Heavy Cash Burn
Deeply negative operating and free cash flow show that current revenue is not yet sufficient to fund operations and development internally. Continued cash consumption increases reliance on external capital, constrains strategic flexibility, and makes durable profitability dependent on successful commercialization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
TONMYA Commercial Momentum
Rapid TONMYA sales, prescription, and refill growth indicates meaningful early product adoption and improving patient persistence. If these trends continue, the commercial franchise can become a more durable revenue base and support operating leverage as access expands.
Read all positive factors
Tonix Pharma (TNXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$93.13M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)796.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth196.02%
EPS Growth98.71%
CountryUS
Employees142
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-13.24
Shares Outstanding17,151,024
10 Day Avg. Volume1,167,736
30 Day Avg. Volume796,149
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.54
Price to Sales (P/S)10.14
P/FCF Ratio-1.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.67Price Target Upside175.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-9.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$53.75M
Tonix Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. is a biopharmaceutical firm primarily operating in the clinical development stage. Its overarching mission involves the discovery, acquisition, advancement, and commercialization of novel therapeutic agents and ...
Tonix Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful commercial momentum for TONMYA with strong near-term sales growth, improving prescription/refill metrics, expanding payer coverage, and concrete clinical progress on two mid-stage programs (TNX-102 SL for MDD and TNX-4800 for Lyme prevention). These operational positives are tempered by materially higher R&D and SG&A expenses, a limited cash runway into early Q2 2027 (requiring subsequent equity proceeds), ongoing gross-to-net and access variability, and event-driven risk for the TNX-4800 study that could delay readouts. Overall, the company demonstrates strong product and pipeline traction but faces near-term financial and trial-enrollment risks that warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong TONMYA Launch and Rapid Sales Growth
TONMYA net sales of approximately $11.0M in Q2 2026, representing ~197% quarter-over-quarter growth (nearly triple Q1 sales); contributed to total net product revenue of ~$13.5M in Q2 (TONMYA + migraine products) vs. $2.0M in Q2 2025 (~+575% YoY).
Negative Updates
Significant Increase in Operating Expenses
Research & development expenses rose to ~$19.4M in Q2 2026 from $10.8M in Q2 2025 (+~79.6%), driven by higher manufacturing, clinical costs, and headcount. Selling, general & administrative expenses increased to ~$36.0M from $16.2M (+~122.2%), driven by launch-related sales & marketing investments and higher employee/professional expenses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong TONMYA Launch and Rapid Sales Growth
TONMYA net sales of approximately $11.0M in Q2 2026, representing ~197% quarter-over-quarter growth (nearly triple Q1 sales); contributed to total net product revenue of ~$13.5M in Q2 (TONMYA + migraine products) vs. $2.0M in Q2 2025 (~+575% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that TONMYA’s launch is progressing with Q2’26 TONMYA net sales of ~$11.0M (second full quarter), driving total Q2 net product revenue of ~$13.5M (including ~$2.5M from migraine products); Q2 prescriptions were 12,592 (+100% QoQ), new patient scripts +36% QoQ and refills +207% QoQ. They said payer coverage now represents ~136M lives (≈43% of ~314M U.S. covered lives), rising to ~145M lives (≈46%) on Jan 1, 2027 after two GPO agreements (52M lives effective May/June) and a managed Medicare agreement (~9M lives), and plan to expand the field force by 50 reps to ~150 reps by September; gross‑to‑net and margins will continue to fluctuate in the range seen in Q1–Q2, wholesaler days‑on‑hand are stable, and cash was ~$176.2M at June 30, 2026 (expected to fund operations into early Q2’27 with subsequent equity proceeds). On the pipeline, TNX‑102 SL randomized the first patient in a ~360‑patient HORIZON study (MADRS at week 6 primary endpoint), and TNX‑4800 has FDA alignment for an adaptive Phase II field study targeting ~3,300 participants (1:1 randomization, 450 mg sub‑Q dosing, primary efficacy through 6 months) planned to start in Q1’27 with most enrollment expected in 2028 (may extend into 2029 if attack rates are lower).Tonix Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.10M | 13.11M | 10.09M | 7.77M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 23.35M | 4.54M | 2.33M | 3.03M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -157.54M | -122.01M | -74.32M | -112.37M | -108.97M | -92.24M |
| Net Income | -159.67M | -124.02M | -130.04M | -116.66M | -110.22M | -92.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 254.09M | 277.17M | 162.89M | 154.46M | 225.69M | 240.90M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.23M | 207.64M | 98.78M | 24.95M | 120.23M | 178.66M |
| Total Debt | 1.27M | 1.31M | 5.30M | 9.81M | 760.00K | 956.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 31.81M | 32.02M | 23.33M | 48.93M | 18.51M | 22.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 222.28M | 245.15M | 139.56M | 105.53M | 207.18M | 218.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -159.89M | -103.21M | -61.05M | -109.90M | -146.20M | -110.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -154.72M | -99.84M | -60.92M | -102.00M | -98.05M | -75.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.33M | -4.53M | -120.00K | -29.07M | -48.15M | -35.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 213.05M | 214.53M | 134.87M | 36.52M | 87.84M | 212.49M |
Tonix Pharma Technical Analysis
Negative
13.66
Price Trends
10.41
Negative
11.02
Negative
12.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.45
Positive
13.18
Positive
5.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNXP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.44, above the 50-day MA of 10.41, and above the 200-day MA of 12.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 13.18 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNXP.
Tonix Pharma Risk Analysis
Tonix Pharma disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tonix Pharma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tonix Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $212.71M | 10.66 | 31.61% | ― | 30.14% | 181.54% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $169.37M | -2.64 | 152.56% | ― | -24.21% | 1.17% | |
49 Neutral | $246.83M | -1.97 | -65.08% | ― | -23.36% | 27.52% | |
48 Neutral | $93.13M | -0.41 | -68.99% | ― | 196.02% | 98.71% | |
43 Neutral | $662.87M | -2.59 | -58.03% | ― | -86.62% | 14.74% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TNXP
Tonix Pharma
5.13
-14.36
-73.68%
PLX
Protalix
2.57
0.21
8.90%
FATE
Fate Therapeutics
2.09
0.44
26.67%
AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics
7.45
-10.12
-57.60%
IPHA
Innate Pharma
1.50
-0.70
-31.82%
Tonix Pharma Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tonix Pharma Files Technical Regulatory Disclosure Update
Neutral
Oct 15, 2026
In a brief filing note, Tonix Pharma indicated that the information provided under Item 2.02 was incorporated by reference into another section, signaling a purely technical update to its disclosure structure. The release did not introduce new ope...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Tonix Pharma Faces Generic TONMYA Patent Challenge
Negative
Oct 2, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals disclosed that Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories filed an Abbreviated New Drug Application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a generic version of TONMYA sublingual tablets, accompanied by a Parag...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Tonix Pharma expands TONMYA Medicare Part D coverage
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals announced it had entered into an agreement with a pharmacy benefit manager that immediately extended coverage of its drug TONMYA to roughly 21 million Medicare Part D beneficiaries. With this deal, TONM...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tonix Pharma Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. announced the appointment of Thomas Englese as Chief Commercial Officer, effective immediately. The move signals a focus on expanding commercial capabilities and preparing for potential pro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tonix Pharma Names CEO Seth Lederman Interim CMO
Neutral
Aug 18, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. appointed its President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Dr. Seth Lederman, as Interim Chief Medical Officer. Lederman, who has led the company since October 2011, will retain his exist...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tonix Pharma Advances Phase 2 Lyme Disease Vaccine Study
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals reported it had received official minutes from a Type C meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, confirming alignment on the design of an adaptive Phase 2 field study of TNX-4800 for preventing L...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.