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TriNet Group
(NYSE:TNET)
Select Model
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
▼(-1.99% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
TNET scores as slightly above average primarily due to strong cash generation and a supportive (raised) earnings outlook, partially offset by materially higher balance-sheet risk (very high debt-to-equity) and ongoing top-line pressure from declining WSE volumes. Technicals and valuation are broadly neutral, providing neither a strong tailwind nor a major warning signal.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow support funding for technology, distribution and service investments while maintaining shareholder returns. Free cash flow closely tracks net income, indicating that reported earnings are converting into cash and providing useful internal financial capacity.
Negative Factors
Declining worksite employee volumes
The PEO model is tied closely to client employee and payroll volumes, so sustained WSE declines directly pressure revenue scale and weaken operating leverage. Pricing gains have not yet offset volume erosion, leaving the company dependent on a successful recovery in sales and client additions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow support funding for technology, distribution and service investments while maintaining shareholder returns. Free cash flow closely tracks net income, indicating that reported earnings are converting into cash and providing useful internal financial capacity.
Read all positive factors
TriNet Group (TNET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.00B
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)321.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-2.83%
EPS Growth26.75%
CountryUS
Employees302,955
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.74
Shares Outstanding45,904,740
10 Day Avg. Volume334,413
30 Day Avg. Volume321,760
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.38
Price to Book (P/B)52.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio9.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.20Price Target Upside-5.97% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.81B
TriNet Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TriNet Group, Inc. provides comprehensive human capital management services for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. The company offers multi-state payroll processing and tax administration; employee benefits programs, including...
How the Company Makes Money
TriNet makes money primarily by providing PEO and HR outsourcing services to client companies. Under its PEO model, TriNet typically co-employs a client’s worksite employees for administrative purposes and charges the client based on the employees...
TriNet Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: management highlighted meaningful operational improvements (notably insurance profitability, retention, margin expansion, AI-enabled service gains and raised earnings guidance) and strong cash generation, while acknowledging ongoing top-line pressure from significant WSE declines, flat sales in Q2 and reliance in part on one-time or prior-period items for some of the insurance favorability. Management laid out credible actions (ASCEND hiring, broker channel growth, pricing and product enhancements) to restore sustainable revenue growth, but execution risks and persistent high medical inflation remain near-term constraints.Positive Updates
Improved Insurance Profitability and ICR
Q2 insurance cost ratio (ICR) improved to 86%, a 4-point year-over-year improvement; insurance costs declined 8% YoY and insurance service revenues declined 4% YoY. Management cited stabilized health cost trends in the high single digits and raised full-year ICR guidance (updated range centered below prior guidance, reflecting first-half favorability).
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Revenue
Q2 total revenues were $1.2B, down 5% year-over-year, driven primarily by lower WSE volumes despite pricing gains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Insurance Profitability and ICR
Q2 insurance cost ratio (ICR) improved to 86%, a 4-point year-over-year improvement; insurance costs declined 8% YoY and insurance service revenues declined 4% YoY. Management cited stabilized health cost trends in the high single digits and raised full-year ICR guidance (updated range centered below prior guidance, reflecting first-half favorability).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TriNet raised its 2026 earnings outlook, guiding total revenues of $4.75–$4.90B, professional services revenue of $647–$663M, an insurance cost ratio (ICR) roughly in the high‑80s (about 88.5%–89.5%), an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.5%–9%, GAAP EPS of $2.85–$3.35 and adjusted EPS of $4.50–$5.10. The revision follows Q2 results of $1.2B revenue (‑5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $128M (10.9% margin), GAAP EPS $1.15 and adjusted EPS $1.55; insurance service revenues down 4% with insurance costs down 8% and a Q2 ICR of 86% (a 4‑point YoY improvement); professional services revenue of $159M (‑8%); interest revenue $12M (‑33%); total WSEs ~300k (‑12% YoY, flat sequential) and co‑employed WSEs ~274k (‑11%); plus $88M net cash from operations, $67M free cash flow (+18%), and $31M returned to shareholders (≈500k shares repurchased for $18M and a $0.29 dividend). Management noted second‑half ICR seasonality (higher H2 ICR), expects to target the high end of its long‑term ICR range, and will accelerate incremental 2026 investments in distribution, benefits and service (including AI).TriNet Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.88B | 5.01B | 5.05B | 4.92B | 4.88B | 4.54B |
| Gross Profit | 933.00M | 886.00M | 952.00M | 1.10B | 1.12B | 937.00M |
| EBITDA | 379.00M | 346.00M | 374.00M | 662.00M | 610.00M | 555.00M |
| Net Income | 175.00M | 155.00M | 173.00M | 375.00M | 355.00M | 338.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.35B | 3.80B | 4.12B | 3.69B | 3.44B | 3.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 358.00M | 287.00M | 360.00M | 352.00M | 430.00M | 747.00M |
| Total Debt | 950.00M | 942.00M | 1.02B | 1.14B | 552.00M | 547.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.22B | 3.74B | 4.05B | 3.62B | 2.67B | 2.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 125.00M | 54.00M | 69.00M | 78.00M | 775.00M | 881.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 344.00M | 306.00M | 201.00M | 470.00M | 506.00M | 178.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 370.00M | 303.00M | 279.00M | 545.00M | 562.00M | 218.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.00M | -43.00M | 153.00M | -70.00M | -226.00M | -135.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -378.00M | -49.00M | -207.00M | -546.00M | -536.00M | 12.00M |
TriNet Group Technical Analysis
Positive
70.40
Price Trends
66.98
Negative
59.43
Positive
52.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.50
Negative
48.80
Neutral
65.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.19, above the 50-day MA of 66.98, and above the 200-day MA of 52.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TNET.
TriNet Group Risk Analysis
TriNet Group disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TriNet Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We may incur losses related to Employee Retention Tax Credit claims filed on behalf of our clients. Q2, 2026
TriNet Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $768.74M | 22.82 | 15.76% | 1.01% | 5.59% | -33.45% | |
69 Neutral | $37.01B | 20.59 | 47.11% | 4.37% | 13.97% | 12.61% | |
64 Neutral | $918.37M | 24.19 | 29.32% | 3.10% | -1.26% | -11.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $3.00B | 17.50 | 188.17% | 1.75% | -2.83% | 26.75% | |
58 Neutral | $1.86B | -116.02 | -24.52% | 4.93% | 2.64% | -140.86% | |
55 Neutral | $2.45B | 23.56 | 5.06% | 2.73% | 6.72% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
TNET
TriNet Group
64.94
3.88
6.36%
BBSI
Barrett Business Services
31.56
-10.85
-25.58%
NSP
Insperity
48.52
5.23
12.09%
KFRC
Kforce
50.60
23.87
89.30%
MAN
ManpowerGroup
51.29
15.09
41.70%
PAYX
Paychex
104.64
-17.40
-14.26%
TriNet Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
TriNet Group Board Approves New Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, TriNet Group Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had approved a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock at a meeting held on September 11, 2026. The company set October 1, 2026 as both the record and ex-...
Dividends
TriNet Group Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, TriNet Group, Inc. announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on July 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 1, 2026, which i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.