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Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
NASDAQ:TMCI
US Market
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Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) AI Stock Analysis

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TMCI

Treace Medical Concepts

(NASDAQ:TMCI)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(106.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
TMCI scores as a balanced-risk setup: financial performance is the primary drag due to persistent losses and negative cash flow despite high gross margins, while technicals are supportive with the stock above key moving averages and positive momentum. The latest earnings call adds a mixed outlook—strong product adoption and cash-burn reduction targets, but near-term revenue declines and continued EBITDA losses. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained near-80% gross margins reflect strong product-level economics and pricing power for proprietary implants and disposables. High margins provide structural buffer to fund commercialization and tolerate investment while management narrows operating losses and scales recurring per-procedure revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Continued negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on existing cash balances and potentially external financing, limiting strategic flexibility. Even with reduced burn in 2025/TTM, ongoing outflows constrain investments and increase execution risk until the company achieves sustained internal cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained near-80% gross margins reflect strong product-level economics and pricing power for proprietary implants and disposables. High margins provide structural buffer to fund commercialization and tolerate investment while management narrows operating losses and scales recurring per-procedure revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors

Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., a medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States. The company offers Lapiplasty System, enables surgeons to correct all three dimensions of the bunion deformity, s...
How the Company Makes Money
TMCI makes money primarily by selling foot-and-ankle surgical products used in operating rooms to correct bunions and related deformities. Revenue is generated from (1) procedure-driven sales of proprietary implant systems and related disposable/s...

Treace Medical Concepts Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: commercial execution and product momentum are clear positives (rapid adoption of new systems, expanding TAM, high gross margins, improved cash balance and reduced cash burn expectations), but near-term financials remain challenged (Q1 revenue down 10%, larger net and EBITDA losses, and ASP/mix headwinds). Management is taking a conservative posture—reaffirming guidance while highlighting the path to lapping mix headwinds in the back half of 2026 and expecting revenue growth to return in Q4. Overall, operational improvements and promising adoption trends offset but do not yet fully overcome the near-term revenue and profitability headwinds, leaving the situation balanced between encouraging commercial traction and ongoing financial pressure.
Positive Updates
Product Portfolio Expansion and Commercial Progress
Launched multiple new systems (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) and announced upcoming Lapiplasty Lightning, SpeedTMT, SuperBite screws and SpeedXM. Company says these new offerings more than double accessible market relative to Lapiplasty alone and expand TAM by approximately $300M with SuperBite + SpeedXM commercialization planned in Q3 2026.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Q1
Revenue was $47.2M in Q1 2026, a decrease of ~10% year-over-year, driven by a shift toward lower-priced minimally invasive products and lower volume of higher-priced bunion procedure kits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Product Portfolio Expansion and Commercial Progress
Launched multiple new systems (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) and announced upcoming Lapiplasty Lightning, SpeedTMT, SuperBite screws and SpeedXM. Company says these new offerings more than double accessible market relative to Lapiplasty alone and expand TAM by approximately $300M with SuperBite + SpeedXM commercialization planned in Q3 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Treace reaffirmed FY‑2026 revenue guidance of $202.0M–$212.0M (a decline of ~5% to 0% vs. FY‑2025) and expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $4M–$6M for 2026 (vs. a $3.9M adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025), while targeting a ~50% reduction in cash usage vs. 2025; in Q1 they reported revenue of $47.2M (‑10% YoY), gross margin of 79.3% (vs. 79.7% a year ago), operating expenses of $54.6M (vs. $57.5M), net loss of $18.0M or $0.28/sh (vs. $15.9M, $0.25/sh), adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.5M (vs. $3.8M), cash and marketable securities of $51.9M as of 3/31/26 (up ≈$3.5M from $48.4M on 12/31/25), and mid‑single‑digit procedure volume growth in Q1; management expects revenue declines to improve through the year with growth returning in seasonally strong Q4 (helped by case volume acceleration, lapping of ASP/mix shifts starting around Q3, and contributions from 2026 product launches, including Q3 commercialization of SuperBite/SpeedXM which expands TAM by ≈$300M).

Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Despite strong gross margins (~80%) and multi-year revenue scaling, the latest trends show fading momentum (TTM revenue down vs prior year), persistent operating/net losses, and consistently negative operating and free cash flow. Leverage is modest, but equity has declined and returns remain significantly negative, keeping financial quality weak overall.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue207.32M212.69M209.36M187.12M141.84M94.42M
Gross Profit165.27M169.75M168.26M151.94M114.31M77.53M
EBITDA-46.33M-43.18M-42.07M-39.01M-36.28M-15.81M
Net Income-61.04M-59.00M-55.74M-49.53M-42.81M-20.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets184.10M190.58M217.09M251.91M159.02M140.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments51.85M48.37M75.68M123.20M81.25M105.83M
Total Debt13.55M13.98M69.65M70.30M68.59M29.36M
Total Liabilities106.91M103.25M104.20M113.97M98.50M47.75M
Stockholders Equity77.19M87.33M112.89M137.94M60.53M93.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-25.97M-29.49M-48.76M-46.03M-45.49M-19.90M
Operating Cash Flow-12.93M-15.97M-37.17M-34.58M-30.65M-17.19M
Investing Cash Flow7.33M13.25M35.38M-81.30M-76.52M-2.71M
Financing Cash Flow1.78M2.08M160.00K109.38M20.81M107.65M

Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.94
Price Trends
50DMA
3.00
Positive
100DMA
2.33
Positive
200DMA
3.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.42
Positive
RSI
65.57
Neutral
STOCH
59.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.98, below the 50-day MA of 3.00, and below the 200-day MA of 3.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMCI.

Treace Medical Concepts Risk Analysis

Treace Medical Concepts disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Treace Medical Concepts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$671.73M33.069.70%17.18%34.07%
67
Neutral
$788.57M22.5716.27%1.52%
62
Neutral
$723.78M-41.92-9.56%16.77%39.26%
57
Neutral
$491.35M-11.11-11.42%14.52%4.11%
54
Neutral
$258.19M-4.04-69.50%-1.66%-12.59%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
48
Neutral
$369.45M-6.10-13.44%2.59%59.39%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMCI
Treace Medical Concepts
3.98
-2.04
-33.89%
OFIX
Orthofix Medical
9.14
-2.04
-18.25%
TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology
29.78
19.55
191.10%
KIDS
OrthoPediatrics
19.13
-2.73
-12.49%
SIBN
SI-Bone
16.32
-1.99
-10.87%
BVS
Bioventus
9.44
2.47
35.44%

Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Treace Medical Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. shareholders elected Class II directors Lance A. Berry, Elizabeth S. Hanna and Jane E. Kiernan to three-year terms ending with the 2029 annual meeting. The v...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Treace Medical Concepts Announces Leadership Transition and Outlook
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Treace Medical Concepts said Chief Commercial Officer Gaetano M. Guglielmino would depart at the close of business on April 8, 2026, with his duties redistributed among existing staff and the senior vice president of sales now reporting directly t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2026