Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management maintained 2026 guidance built on a baseline of 3% full‑year GDP growth (Q1 2.5%), a year‑end CPI forecast of ~30% (management used 27% in H1 valuation; a 30% assumption would have raised H1 NII by ~TRY3bn and NIM by ~20bp), and funding costs expected to converge to policy rates by September with possible limited easing in Q4; loan growth guidance for both TL and FX loans was maintained, full‑year consolidated cost of risk is expected to finish within the guided 2.0–2.5% range but toward the upper end, and margin expansion is still expected albeit more modest than initially projected (the 75bp NIM improvement target is still viewed as achievable but at risk, with management flagging a 20–40bp possible improvement). Key operating and balance‑sheet metrics underpinning the guidance include H1 net income TRY64bn (+20% YoY) and 28% ROE, core banking revenues +43% YoY, customer deposits TRY3.5trn (66% of assets), total assets TRY5.2trn with loans ~55% of assets, CET1 ~12% with TRY149bn excess capital, total external debt $9.8bn (short‑term $4.5bn) and an FX liquidity buffer of $6.1bn; management also noted that the expected Romania sale (mid‑Q4) could contribute >€100m to net income and ~80bp to capital, supporting the nominal ROE outlook.