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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY)
OTHER OTC:TKGZY
US Market
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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY) AI Stock Analysis

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TKGZY

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A

(OTC:TKGZY)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
â–²(8.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow) despite strong profitability and ROE, along with bearish-to-soft technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is a key offset (low P/E and very high dividend yield), and the latest earnings call supports a cautiously positive fundamental outlook with guidance maintained, though margin and credit-cost pressures remain the main near-term risks.
Positive Factors
High profitability and ROE
Sustained high ROE and sizable H1 net income indicate strong core earnings power and efficient capital use. This supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and resilience to shocks, underpinning long-term return-on-equity durability even if growth moderates.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Negative trailing operating and free cash flow point to weaker cash conversion of earnings and higher reliance on external funding or working‑capital adjustments. Over months this raises liquidity sensitivity and constrains reinvestment, dividend reliability and buffer for credit shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and ROE
Sustained high ROE and sizable H1 net income indicate strong core earnings power and efficient capital use. This supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and resilience to shocks, underpinning long-term return-on-equity durability even if growth moderates.
Read all positive factors

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Established in Istanbul, Turkey, in 1946, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. delivers a full spectrum of banking and financial services. Its offerings include a diverse range of deposit accounts, from standard current and savings options to time, struct...
How the Company Makes Money
Garanti BBVA primarily makes money by earning a spread between interest income it receives on interest-bearing assets and the interest it pays on its funding sources. The largest component is typically net interest income: the bank extends loans (...

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a fundamentally positive operating and earnings story: strong H1 profitability (+20% YoY net income), very robust fee and core revenue growth (+43% core banking revenues, fees +39% YoY), healthy capital buffers and diversified funding. However, the bank faces tangible near-term headwinds — funding-cost-driven margin pressure, higher cost of risk concentrated in consumer segments, temporary NPL inflows due to regulatory migration, and higher operating expenses. Management emphasizes these are largely manageable or transitory and maintains guidance (loan growth, cost-of-risk range), while flagging that margin and real ROE outcomes are dependent on macro developments (inflation and funding rate trajectory). Overall, positive operating momentum is balanced with clear mid‑term risks, but highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.
Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and ROE
Generated TRY 64 billion in net income for H1 2026, up 20% year-on-year, with a reported return on equity of 28%.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Higher Funding Costs
Funding cost headwinds from higher funding rate led to NIM pressure; management limited NII decline to 5% QoQ but cautioned that NIM expansion pace will be more modest than earlier expected and a previously communicated 75 bps improvement is exposed to risk.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Profitability and ROE
Generated TRY 64 billion in net income for H1 2026, up 20% year-on-year, with a reported return on equity of 28%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained 2026 guidance built on a baseline of 3% full‑year GDP growth (Q1 2.5%), a year‑end CPI forecast of ~30% (management used 27% in H1 valuation; a 30% assumption would have raised H1 NII by ~TRY3bn and NIM by ~20bp), and funding costs expected to converge to policy rates by September with possible limited easing in Q4; loan growth guidance for both TL and FX loans was maintained, full‑year consolidated cost of risk is expected to finish within the guided 2.0–2.5% range but toward the upper end, and margin expansion is still expected albeit more modest than initially projected (the 75bp NIM improvement target is still viewed as achievable but at risk, with management flagging a 20–40bp possible improvement). Key operating and balance‑sheet metrics underpinning the guidance include H1 net income TRY64bn (+20% YoY) and 28% ROE, core banking revenues +43% YoY, customer deposits TRY3.5trn (66% of assets), total assets TRY5.2trn with loans ~55% of assets, CET1 ~12% with TRY149bn excess capital, total external debt $9.8bn (short‑term $4.5bn) and an FX liquidity buffer of $6.1bn; management also noted that the expected Romania sale (mid‑Q4) could contribute >€100m to net income and ~80bp to capital, supporting the nominal ROE outlook.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and returns are strong (TTM net margin ~10.7%, operating margin ~14.3%, and ROE ~28%), but recent cash generation is a major weakness (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative). Balance sheet scale and equity are improving, yet leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~1.22 vs ~0.97 in 2025) and revenue/margin trends have been volatile year-to-year.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.11T988.39B287.17B346.52B177.72B85.59B
Gross Profit465.42B410.34B287.17B199.32B133.01B61.46B
EBITDA171.98B160.63B0.00109.31B78.23B19.35B
Net Income119.19B109.82B91.24B86.37B58.29B13.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.79T4.55T3.00T2.20T1.30T850.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments567.44B31.82B591.84B474.34B200.82B182.89B
Total Debt553.49B431.79B223.97B150.11B104.47B97.20B
Total Liabilities4.34T4.10T2.67T1.96T1.15T770.17B
Stockholders Equity451.90B444.07B329.79B244.70B152.64B79.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-84.66B-5.40B-155.25B186.17B43.63B31.02B
Operating Cash Flow-78.91B4.98B-145.82B191.28B45.76B32.31B
Investing Cash Flow-486.32B-63.06B-46.85B-81.76B-55.25B-12.41B
Financing Cash Flow459.04B222.25B95.27B10.45B25.67B29.34B

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price2.77
Price Trends
50DMA
2.73
Positive
100DMA
2.82
Negative
200DMA
3.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
51.48
Neutral
STOCH
67.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGZY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.74, above the 50-day MA of 2.73, and below the 200-day MA of 3.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TKGZY.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$10.59B11.5512.17%1.28%28.55%37.78%
78
Outperform
$10.17B12.0512.33%1.41%5.62%17.55%
76
Outperform
$9.97B8.7416.14%2.66%3.90%43.25%
73
Outperform
$10.46B11.0515.44%1.92%3.80%43.71%
67
Neutral
$10.11B15.3615.04%2.49%1.94%13.72%
59
Neutral
$11.57B4.6826.86%23.34%6.83%0.14%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TKGZY
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A
2.76
-0.78
-22.09%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
162.92
39.10
31.58%
BPOP
Popular
163.71
42.58
35.15%
UMBF
UMB Financial
139.49
20.81
17.54%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
152.16
20.43
15.51%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
68.75
13.37
24.14%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026