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TIM Group (TIIAY) AI Stock Analysis
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TIM Group
(Other OTC:TIIAY)
The score is driven primarily by improving financial stability and cash generation (turning profitable TTM, stronger free cash flow, and reduced leverage) and a supportive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed multi-year guidance. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and an unattractive valuation profile given the very high P/E and no stated dividend yield.
TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.35B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 34.58K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 49.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.47
- Revenue Growth
- 7.17%
- EPS Growth
- 164.36%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 25,602
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Sector Strength
- 60
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its affiliated entities, is a prominent provider of fixed-line and mobile telecommunications services, operating both within Italy and across international markets. The company organizes its extensive operations i...
How the Company Makes Money
TIM generates revenue primarily by selling telecommunications services under recurring subscription and usage-based models. Key revenue streams include: (1) Consumer fixed-line services: monthly fees for broadband/ultrabroadband internet access over...
TIM Group Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a generally positive tone: management reported resilient underlying operational performance, confirmed full‑year guidance, showed improving profitability (notably after adjusting for a temporary MVNO headwind), strong Brazil and enterprise/cloud momentum, solid cash generation aided by a one‑off concession fee, and active capital‑structure actions and strategic transactions. Key near‑term challenges include temporary MVNO impacts, service quality issues with the wholesale fiber provider, legal/regulatory uncertainties (INWIT, FiberCop MSA, spectrum), OpEx pressure in Brazil, and energy/VAT timing risks. On balance, the highlights and forward‑looking confirmations materially outweigh the lowlights, which are either temporary, being managed, or disclosed as risks.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
TIM reconfirmed stand‑alone guidance for 2026 and the medium term: for 2026 management targets group revenue growth of 2–3%, group EBITDA after lease growth of 5–6%, group CapEx intensity below 14% of revenues and roughly EUR 1.8bn of equity free cash flow after lease; the 2027 plan implies ~3% CAGR in group revenues (2024–27), 6–7% CAGR in group EBITDA after lease, CapEx intensity declining to ~13% of revenues, around EUR 1.1bn of equity free cash flow after lease for 2027 and leverage comfortably below the committed 1.7x ceiling (including I‑Systems and VAT split assumptions). Management said these targets are supported by H1 results—H1 revenues EUR 6.8bn (+2.0% YoY; excl. MVNO +3.3%), H1 EBITDA after lease EUR 1.8bn (+1.2%; excl. MVNO +6.3%), H1 CapEx EUR 0.9bn (12.6% of revenues), H1 equity free cash flow EUR 0.7bn and net debt after lease EUR 7.3bn (leverage 1.94x)—while noting a temporary MVNO headwind of ~EUR 80m revenue and ~EUR 84m EBITDA AL in H1.
TIM Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are stabilizing with a multi-year recovery toward modest TTM profitability and improved leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~1.1–1.2x). Cash generation is a relative strength with robust operating cash flow (~3.5B) and improved free cash flow (~1.34B), but net margins remain thin (~1%) and revenue growth is modest (TTM ~1.4%) after prior declines, keeping overall quality and consistency only moderate.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
62PositiveCash Flow
65Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.98B | 13.19B | 14.44B | 16.30B | 15.79B | 15.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 4.45B | 6.73B | 8.08B | 9.13B | 9.25B |
| EBITDA | 4.53B | 3.18B | 4.80B | 5.71B | 5.51B | 1.16B |
| Net Income | 220.15M | 297.00M | -610.00M | -1.44B | -2.92B | -8.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.88B | 36.72B | 37.66B | 62.16B | 62.03B | 69.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.23B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 5.00B | 9.15B |
| Total Debt | 13.52B | 13.76B | 14.72B | 32.64B | 31.19B | 32.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.95B | 23.24B | 24.30B | 44.65B | 43.30B | 47.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.52B | 12.21B | 11.96B | 13.65B | 15.06B | 17.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.34B | 827.98M | 402.00M | -25.00M | -1.41B | 323.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.49B | 2.44B | 3.25B | 3.94B | 4.89B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -1.44B | 4.94B | -4.15B | -5.33B | -5.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -1.83B | -7.41B | -456.00M | -2.87B | 3.16B |
TIM Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.39, below the 50-day MA of 7.74, and below the 200-day MA of 7.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TIIAY.
TIM Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
VIV77Outperform
AMX76Outperform
VZ67Neutral
T63Neutral
VOD63Neutral- TIIAY61Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIV | 77Outperform | $18.14B | 14.90 | 9.70% | 7.84% | 16.10% | 24.13% |
| AMX | 76Outperform | $75.11B | 15.06 | 22.21% | 2.42% | 15.97% | 39.45% |
| VZ | 67Neutral | $185.39B | 11.41 | 15.73% | 6.29% | 1.38% | -16.44% |
| T | 63Neutral | $144.23B | 11.57 | 11.95% | 5.18% | 3.51% | -39.83% |
| VOD | 63Neutral | $36.97B | -72.26 | -0.79% | 3.38% | 16.69% | 87.12% |
| TIIAY | 61Neutral | $13.67B | 49.54 | 1.98% | ― | 7.17% | 164.36% |
| Sector * | 60Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIIAY | TIM Group | 6.41 | 0.66 | 11.40% | |
| AMX | America Movil S.a.b. De C.v. | 24.48 | 2.41 | 10.90% | |
| T | At&t Inc | 21.41 | -2.00 | -8.56% | |
| VIV | Telefonica Brasil SA | 11.28 | -0.05 | -0.42% | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 44.73 | 7.72 | 20.87% | |
| VOD | Vodafone Group Plc | 15.88 | 4.93 | 44.98% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026