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TIM Group
(OTC:TIIAY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
â–²(2.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial stability and cash generation (turning profitable TTM, stronger free cash flow, and reduced leverage) and a supportive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed multi-year guidance. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and an unattractive valuation profile given the very high P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving Cash Generation and Leverage
Improving operating and free cash flow, alongside materially lower leverage, strengthens debt-servicing capacity and funding flexibility. This provides a more durable base for network investment and strategic actions, although consistency still needs monitoring.
Negative Factors
Thin Profitability and Modest Growth
The turnaround has not yet produced a robust earnings engine: thin margins, modest growth and low returns leave limited cushion against competition, cost inflation or execution setbacks. This constrains the durability of shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Cash Generation and Leverage
Improving operating and free cash flow, alongside materially lower leverage, strengthens debt-servicing capacity and funding flexibility. This provides a more durable base for network investment and strategic actions, although consistency still needs monitoring.
Read all positive factors
TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.45B
Dividend Yield2.28%
Average Volume (3M)7.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)66.9
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth7.17%
EPS Growth164.36%
CountryUS
Employees25,602
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding213,572,590
10 Day Avg. Volume7,634
30 Day Avg. Volume7,763
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio13.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.58B
TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its affiliated entities, is a prominent provider of fixed-line and mobile telecommunications services, operating both within Italy and across international markets. The company organizes its extensive operation...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
TIM Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone: management reported resilient underlying operational performance, confirmed full‑year guidance, showed improving profitability (notably after adjusting for a temporary MVNO headwind), strong Brazil and enterprise/cloud momentum, solid cash generation aided by a one‑off concession fee, and active capital‑structure actions and strategic transactions. Key near‑term challenges include temporary MVNO impacts, service quality issues with the wholesale fiber provider, legal/regulatory uncertainties (INWIT, FiberCop MSA, spectrum), OpEx pressure in Brazil, and energy/VAT timing risks. On balance, the highlights and forward‑looking confirmations materially outweigh the lowlights, which are either temporary, being managed, or disclosed as risks.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Reported group revenues of EUR 6.8 billion in H1 2026, up 2.0% year‑on‑year; excluding MVNO transition revenue headwind, growth would have been 3.3%.
Negative Updates
MVNO Transition Temporary Headwind
MVNO transition reduced H1 revenues by ~EUR 80 million and EBITDA after lease by ~EUR 84 million versus prior year; management treats this as a temporary phasing effect that depressed reported results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Reported group revenues of EUR 6.8 billion in H1 2026, up 2.0% year‑on‑year; excluding MVNO transition revenue headwind, growth would have been 3.3%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TIM reconfirmed stand‑alone guidance for 2026 and the medium term: for 2026 management targets group revenue growth of 2–3%, group EBITDA after lease growth of 5–6%, group CapEx intensity below 14% of revenues and roughly EUR 1.8bn of equity free cash flow after lease; the 2027 plan implies ~3% CAGR in group revenues (2024–27), 6–7% CAGR in group EBITDA after lease, CapEx intensity declining to ~13% of revenues, around EUR 1.1bn of equity free cash flow after lease for 2027 and leverage comfortably below the committed 1.7x ceiling (including I‑Systems and VAT split assumptions). Management said these targets are supported by H1 results—H1 revenues EUR 6.8bn (+2.0% YoY; excl. MVNO +3.3%), H1 EBITDA after lease EUR 1.8bn (+1.2%; excl. MVNO +6.3%), H1 CapEx EUR 0.9bn (12.6% of revenues), H1 equity free cash flow EUR 0.7bn and net debt after lease EUR 7.3bn (leverage 1.94x)—while noting a temporary MVNO headwind of ~EUR 80m revenue and ~EUR 84m EBITDA AL in H1.TIM Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.98B | 13.19B | 14.44B | 16.30B | 15.79B | 15.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 4.45B | 6.73B | 8.08B | 9.13B | 9.25B |
| EBITDA | 4.53B | 3.18B | 4.80B | 5.71B | 5.51B | 1.16B |
| Net Income | 220.15M | 297.00M | -610.00M | -1.44B | -2.92B | -8.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.88B | 36.72B | 37.66B | 62.16B | 62.03B | 69.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.23B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 5.00B | 9.15B |
| Total Debt | 13.52B | 13.76B | 14.72B | 32.64B | 31.19B | 32.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.95B | 23.24B | 24.30B | 44.65B | 43.30B | 47.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.52B | 12.21B | 11.96B | 13.65B | 15.06B | 17.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.34B | 827.98M | 402.00M | -25.00M | -1.41B | 323.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.49B | 2.44B | 3.25B | 3.94B | 4.89B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -1.44B | 4.94B | -4.15B | -5.33B | -5.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -1.83B | -7.41B | -456.00M | -2.87B | 3.16B |
TIM Group Technical Analysis
Positive
8.76
Price Trends
8.87
Positive
8.71
Positive
7.69
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
51.94
Neutral
66.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.91, below the 50-day MA of 8.87, and above the 200-day MA of 7.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TIIAY.
TIM Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $18.85B | 14.59 | 9.70% | 7.42% | 16.10% | 24.13% | |
71 Outperform | $14.69B | 15.07 | 13.16% | 8.27% | -3.37% | -27.49% | |
70 Outperform | $8.86B | 10.55 | 17.54% | 7.40% | 13.99% | 29.93% | |
63 Neutral | $39.38B | -74.19 | -0.79% | 3.18% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
61 Neutral | $18.45B | 66.87 | 1.98% | 2.28% | 7.17% | 164.36% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TIIAY
TIM Group
8.94
3.71
70.82%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
15.08
-2.64
-14.88%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
11.80
0.16
1.36%
TIMB
TIM
18.73
-1.03
-5.20%
VOD
Vodafone
17.31
5.90
51.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.