Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR (TCOM) AI Stock Analysis

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Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

(NASDAQ:TCOM)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$68.00

▲(18.04%Upside)

Trip.com Group Ltd. scores well overall due to strong earnings call results and solid financial performance, despite concerns over cash flow. Valuation and technical analysis indicate moderate potential, with the earnings call being the most significant positive contributor.

Positive Factors

International Expansion

TCOM's overseas expansion is on the right track, which should bring long-term value to TCOM.

Market Leadership

Trip.com maintains its leadership in China’s mid-high end, outbound, and inbound travel segments.

Shareholder Returns

TCOM has entered into a share repurchase agreement with MMYT, which is expected to optimize the investment portfolio and enhance shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

TCOM shares have seen recent volatility, driven by softer-than-expected Dragon Boat Festival travel data and speculative headlines around JD's potential push into the travel sector.

Travel Market Uncertainty

Cautious full-year guidance is maintained due to price uncertainty in the travel market.

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR (TCOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$37.49B

Dividend Yield0.5%

Average Volume (3M)2.92M

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3

Beta (1Y)0.75

Revenue Growth16.23%

EPS Growth56.05%

CountryUS

Employees41,073

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength56

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.83

Shares Outstanding689,450,260

10 Day Avg. Volume3,056,860

30 Day Avg. Volume2,915,440

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-28.17

Price to Book (P/B)1.81

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$76.00

Price Target Upside31.92% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrip.com Group Ltd. is a leading online travel agency that provides comprehensive travel services for customers around the globe. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company operates in the travel and tourism sector, offering a wide array of products and services such as hotel and accommodation booking, transportation ticketing including flights and trains, package tours, and corporate travel management. Through its platform, Trip.com Group connects travelers with travel suppliers, facilitating seamless travel experiences.

How the Company Makes MoneyTrip.com Group Ltd. generates revenue primarily through commissions and service fees collected from various travel service providers for bookings made via its platform. The company's key revenue streams include hotel reservation services, where it earns commissions on each booking, and transportation ticketing, which includes air and train ticket sales with associated service fees. Additionally, Trip.com Group offers packaged tours and corporate travel management services, contributing further to its revenue. The company leverages technology and data analytics to enhance user experience and optimize its offerings. Significant partnerships with airlines, hotels, and local travel service providers also play a crucial role in expanding its service portfolio and enhancing its revenue generation capabilities.

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -14.14%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 18, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call indicates a strong overall performance for Trip.com Group in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in inbound travel and international operations, as well as effective use of AI technology to enhance user engagement. Despite challenges in corporate travel revenue and fluctuating marketing expenses, the company's strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies have led to robust financial results and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Growth in Inbound Travel

Inbound travel bookings surged by approximately 100% year-over-year, with key source markets being South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. This growth is supported by the strategic push from China to attract international visitors.

AI-Driven User Engagement

The AI agent, TripGenie, saw around a 50% increase in average user session duration. AI chatbots and self-service tools handled over 80% of inquiries, improving response times and boosting customer satisfaction.

Revenue and EBITDA Growth

Net revenue increased by 16% year-over-year to RMB13.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 7% year-over-year, demonstrating continued operational efficiency improvement.

Strong International OTA Platform Performance

Overall travel bookings on the international OTA platform grew by over 60% year-over-year, with APAC remaining a major growth engine.

Robust Mobile Platform Contributions

The mobile platform now contributes 70% of international bookings, reflecting the growing user preference for app-based travel planning.

Resilient Domestic Travel Demand

Domestic hotel bookings in China continued to see double-digit growth year-over-year, underscoring a strong appetite for local exploration.

Expansion in Inbound Market Offerings

Trip.com Group has launched free city tours for transit travelers in Shanghai and Beijing, and is upgrading offline stores into multilingual service centers.

Successful Capital Return Program

The company repurchased approximately $84 million of its shares, demonstrating a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Corporate Travel Revenue

Corporate travel revenue for the first quarter was RMB573 million, representing a 12% increase year-over-year but an 18% decrease quarter-over-quarter, attributed to normal seasonality.

Muted Hotel ADR Performance

Hotel ADR in general decreased by high single digits in the first quarter compared with last year, due to price stabilization challenges.

Sales and Marketing Expense Fluctuations

Adjusted sales and marketing expenses increased by 30% from the same period last year, mainly driven by heightened marketing efforts aligned with business expansion.

Company Guidance

During the Trip.com Group's first quarter 2025 earnings call, management provided a detailed guidance on their financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported a net revenue of RMB13.8 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 7% year-over-year to RMB4.2 billion. Trip.com experienced significant growth in inbound travel bookings, which surged by approximately 100% year-over-year, particularly from markets like South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Their international OTA platform bookings increased by over 60%, driven largely by mobile platform usage, which contributes 70% of international bookings. In terms of operational efficiency, the company maintained a strong focus on AI-driven enhancements, with AI tools now handling over 80% of customer inquiries. Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic about capturing further growth opportunities, supported by strong consumer confidence and favorable travel policies, including a 240-hour visa-free transit policy in China. Additionally, they are committed to shareholder value, having repurchased approximately $84 million worth of shares and distributed $200 million in cash dividends.

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Trip.com Group Ltd. shows strong financial health with significant revenue and profit growth, efficient cost management, and a robust balance sheet. However, the recent decline in cash flow metrics points to potential challenges in cash management or reinvestment strategies.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Trip.com Group Ltd. shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, seeing a notable increase in Total Revenue from 20,039 million in 2022 to 53,294 million in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin improved from 77.5% in 2023 to 81.2% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. Net Profit Margin stood at a healthy 32% in 2024, demonstrating robust profitability. The EBIT Margin increased to 26.6% in 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Trip.com Group Ltd. is stable with a healthy Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.28 as of 2024, showing conservative leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 11.97% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The company maintains a strong Equity Ratio of 58.8%, providing a solid financial foundation. There is a significant increase in Stockholders' Equity from 112,283 million in 2022 to 142,550 million in 2024, reflecting retained earnings and growth.

Cash Flow

Neutral

While the operating cash flow was notably strong at 22,004 million in 2023, it dropped to zero in 2024, suggesting potential cash management issues or significant reinvestment. The Free Cash Flow in 2023 was substantial at 21,398 million but also fell to zero in 2024. The lack of Free Cash Flow growth raises concerns about cash generation sustainability, offsetting previous strong cash flow performance.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
55.22B	53.29B	44.51B	20.04B	20.02B	18.32B
	Gross Profit
44.76B	43.30B	36.39B	15.53B	15.43B	14.29B
	EBIT
14.43B	14.18B	11.32B	2.86B	-319.00M	-1.07B
	EBITDA
19.24B	14.99B	12.14B	88.00M	1.09B	491.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
17.03B	17.07B	9.92B	1.95B	-741.00M	-1.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
78.10B	79.57B	59.34B	44.03B	50.76B	44.23B
	Total Assets
247.76B	242.58B	219.14B	191.69B	191.86B	187.25B
	Total Debt
42.76B	40.32B	45.57B	46.38B	51.36B	57.00B
	Net Debt
-13.61B	-10.96B	3.98B	27.90B	30.16B	37.59B
	Total Liabilities
100.78B	99.10B	96.13B	78.67B	81.40B	85.68B
	Stockholders Equity
145.99B	142.55B	122.18B	112.28B	109.68B	100.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	19.03B	21.40B	2.14B	1.90B	-4.36B
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	19.63B	22.00B	2.64B	2.48B	-3.82B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-6.05B	5.92B	1.14B	-4.15B	-3.82B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-6.71B	-2.55B	-6.72B	3.92B	6.03B

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price57.61

Price Trends

50DMA

60.54

Negative

100DMA

62.17

Negative

200DMA

62.49

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.14

Positive

RSI

40.00

Neutral

STOCH

11.02

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCOM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.15, below the 50-day MA of 60.54, and below the 200-day MA of 62.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCOM.

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Risk Analysis

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	79 Outperform	$82.52B	32.84	32.06%	―	9.68%	-47.83%
BKNG	76 Outperform	$172.59B	33.00	-146.32%	0.72%	9.47%	20.70%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$10.20B	108.42	8.45%	―	28.51%	367.34%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$20.96B	19.43	119.16%	0.97%	5.57%	61.19%
TRIP	73 Outperform	$1.70B	35.82	5.91%	―	1.43%	121.44%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$37.49B	16.32	12.49%	0.50%	16.23%	56.05%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$23.98B	3.98	-1.57%	11.25%	0.06%	-64.90%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

57.61

9.11

18.78%

EXPE

Expedia

165.82

38.23

29.96%

MMYT

Makemytrip

91.51

10.20

12.54%

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,333.42

1,382.93

35.01%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

13.06

-4.56

-25.88%

ABNB

Airbnb

130.53

-17.86

-12.04%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.