TripAdvisor (TRIP) AI Stock Analysis

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TripAdvisor

(NASDAQ:TRIP)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$15.50

▲(19.51%Upside)

TripAdvisor's stock is supported by strong financial performance and strategic growth in key segments, particularly Viator. However, high leverage and valuation concerns present risks. Positive corporate events and strategic initiatives like AI integration offer future growth potential, though macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on sentiment.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 1Q25 exceeded estimates, indicating a better-than-anticipated financial performance.

Revenue Growth

Viator noted double-digit revenue growth rates across its 400K experiences, while Brand Tripadvisor delivered improved engagement and conversion rates leading to favorable pricing at Hotel Meta.

Strategic Moves

Tripadvisor announced it will acquire Liberty Tripadvisor's shares, effectively buying back 27 million of its own shares, which is expected to positively impact the company's stock.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

Increasing competitive dynamics are putting pressure on Tripadvisor's revenue, especially with Google competing directly with Hotel Meta.

Macro Uncertainty

Analyst believes the risk/reward is balanced at current levels given more limited visibility due to macro uncertainty and investments at Brand Tripadvisor.

Revenue Decline

Brand Tripadvisor revenues still declined 9% YoY, and EBITDA is down 17%, with these trends expected to continue into Q2.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.71B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.68M

Price to Earnings (P/E)35.8

Beta (1Y)1.26

Revenue Growth1.43%

EPS Growth121.44%

CountryUS

Employees2,770

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength56

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.14

Shares Outstanding118,092,100

10 Day Avg. Volume2,475,800

30 Day Avg. Volume2,677,842

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.11

Price to Book (P/B)2.92

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio7.31

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.38

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.56

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.66

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.41

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.60

Price Target Upside20.28% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering12

TripAdvisor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTripAdvisor, Inc. is a leading online travel company that operates a global platform connecting travelers with various travel-related resources. The company provides a comprehensive platform for travel planning, offering user-generated reviews, price comparison tools, and booking capabilities for accommodations, restaurants, and attractions. TripAdvisor serves a diverse audience by providing insights and recommendations that help travelers make informed decisions about their trips.

How the Company Makes MoneyTripAdvisor generates revenue primarily through advertising and subscription-based models. The company's key revenue streams include hotel and restaurant advertising, which involves charging hotels, travel agencies, and restaurants for exposure on its platform. Additionally, TripAdvisor earns money from commission fees on bookings made through its platform, affiliate marketing partnerships, and offering premium subscription services like TripAdvisor Plus. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with other travel companies, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its user base.

TripAdvisor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Viator Gross Booking Value

Viator Gross Booking Value
Measures the total value of bookings made through Viator, indicating the platform's popularity and growth in the travel and experiences market.

Chart InsightsViator's gross booking value shows seasonal fluctuations but maintains a strong upward trajectory, reflecting strategic growth in direct and mobile app bookings. The latest earnings call highlights Viator's market leadership, with a remarkable 80% increase in mobile app bookings and a 30% rise in direct bookings for 2024. This growth aligns with Tripadvisor's focus on the experiences category, positioning Viator as a key revenue driver. Despite challenges in other segments, Viator's performance underscores its critical role in Tripadvisor's strategy to enhance customer experiences and expand market share.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

TripAdvisor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 1.65%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted several positive outcomes, including the completion of the merger with Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, growth in the Viator and TheFork segments, and the integration of AI technologies. However, these were balanced by declines in Brand Tripadvisor revenue and challenges in media and advertising, as well as risks associated with macroeconomic uncertainty.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Merger with Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings

Tripadvisor closed its merger transaction with Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, effectively purchasing all shares held by LTRIP and no longer having a controlling shareholder.

Positive Financial Performance

Consolidated revenue was $398 million, representing 1% growth, or approximately 3% growth in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA was $44 million or 11% of revenue, exceeding expectations.

Viator Segment Growth

Booked experiences grew 15% and revenue grew 10%, or approximately 12% in constant currency to $156 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss of $18 million represented an 8 point improvement in margin.

TheFork Revenue Growth

Revenue grew 12% or 16% in constant currency to $46 million. Q1 revenue growth from software subscriptions exceeded 90%.

AI Integration and Strategic Partnerships

Tripadvisor established new strategic partnerships with Amazon Alexa and Microsoft Azure, and is integrating AI to enhance customer service, engineering, content moderation, and business analytics.

Negative Updates

Brand Tripadvisor Revenue Decline

Brand Tripadvisor revenue was $219 million, a decline of 8% with Branded Hotels revenue declining by 7%.

Challenges in Media and Advertising

Media and Advertising revenue declined 6% to $31 million due to overall traffic volume dynamics.

Experiences and Dining Revenue Decline

Experiences and dining revenue was $30 million, a decline of 15% due to product transitions and headwinds in B2B restaurant revenue.

Potential Impact from Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Tripadvisor acknowledged the potential for negative impacts on business due to macroeconomic uncertainty and noted early signs of pressure in average booking value and cancellation rates.

Company Guidance

During Tripadvisor's first quarter 2025 conference call, several key metrics and strategic initiatives were highlighted. The company reported consolidated revenue of $398 million, marking a 1% growth or approximately 3% growth in constant currency. The Viator segment saw a 15% increase in booked experiences and a 10% revenue growth, which translates to 12% in constant currency, reaching $156 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss for Viator improved by 8 percentage points, indicating a positive shift in margins. TheFork, Tripadvisor's European dining offering, experienced a 12% revenue increase or 16% in constant currency, totaling $46 million. Brand Tripadvisor's revenue was $219 million, although it faced an 8% decline, but adjusted EBITDA was $65 million, or 30% of revenue, driven by favorable pricing in Hotel Meta. Overall, Tripadvisor's strategic focus on leveraging AI, optimizing its marketing channels, and enhancing customer engagement across its platforms are designed to drive long-term growth, margin improvements, and shareholder returns.

TripAdvisor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TripAdvisor demonstrates strong income statement performance with robust revenue growth and improved profitability margins. However, high leverage levels and reduced free cash flow compared to previous years indicate potential risks and areas needing improvement.

Income Statement

Very Positive

TripAdvisor shows strong income statement performance with a consistent revenue growth trajectory from $604M in 2020 to $1.838B in TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 83.3% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin has notably improved to 5.8% in TTM from negative in prior years, reflecting a turnaround in profitability. EBITDA margin of 10.4% in TTM suggests decent operating efficiency. However, EBIT margin at 6.1% points to room for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

Positive

TripAdvisor's balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.97 in TTM, indicating a high leverage level though slightly reduced from prior years. The equity ratio stands at 23.3%, denoting a solid equity base. Return on equity improved to 16.6% in TTM, showcasing enhanced shareholder returns. However, the high debt levels could pose potential risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a positive trajectory with free cash flow growth, reaching $81M in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.0 in TTM highlights adequate cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio at 0.76 indicates healthy cash flow management. Despite these strengths, reduced free cash flow compared to previous years suggests areas for improvement in cash generation.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.84B	1.83B	1.79B	1.49B	902.00M	604.00M
	Gross Profit
1.53B	1.70B	1.64B	1.38B	828.00M	549.00M
	EBIT
113.00M	92.00M	126.00M	101.00M	-131.00M	-285.00M
	EBITDA
191.00M	218.00M	256.00M	208.00M	-29.00M	-209.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
107.00M	5.00M	10.00M	20.00M	-148.00M	-289.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.15B	1.06B	1.07B	1.02B	723.00M	418.00M
	Total Assets
2.76B	2.56B	2.54B	2.57B	2.29B	1.97B
	Total Debt
1.27B	903.00M	912.00M	929.00M	927.00M	608.00M
	Net Debt
114.00M	-161.00M	-155.00M	-92.00M	204.00M	190.00M
	Total Liabilities
2.11B	1.62B	1.67B	1.71B	1.50B	1.08B
	Stockholders Equity
643.00M	943.00M	871.00M	861.00M	789.00M	886.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
81.00M	70.00M	172.00M	344.00M	54.00M	-249.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
107.00M	144.00M	235.00M	400.00M	108.00M	-194.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-76.00M	-73.00M	-63.00M	-52.00M	-54.00M	-56.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-54.00M	-63.00M	-127.00M	-27.00M	263.00M	341.00M

TripAdvisor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price12.97

Price Trends

50DMA

13.52

Negative

100DMA

14.40

Negative

200DMA

14.54

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.21

Positive

RSI

36.78

Neutral

STOCH

3.37

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRIP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.93, below the 50-day MA of 13.52, and below the 200-day MA of 14.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRIP.

TripAdvisor Risk Analysis

TripAdvisor disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TripAdvisor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TripAdvisor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKNG	76 Outperform	$172.02B	32.89	-146.32%	0.73%	9.47%	20.70%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$10.51B	111.88	8.45%	―	28.51%	367.34%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$20.65B	19.14	119.16%	0.98%	5.57%	61.19%
TRIP	73 Outperform	$1.71B	35.77	5.91%	―	1.43%	121.44%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$38.90B	16.53	12.49%	0.49%	16.23%	56.05%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.80B	11.08	2.79%	5.80%	2.68%	-24.86%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TRIP

TripAdvisor

12.97

-4.65

-26.39%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

55.85

7.35

15.15%

EXPE

Expedia

162.46

34.87

27.33%

MMYT

Makemytrip

94.43

13.12

16.14%

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,304.03

1,353.54

34.26%

TripAdvisor Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

TripAdvisor Enhances Financial Flexibility with New Loans

Positive

Mar 20, 2025

On March 20, 2025, TripAdvisor announced the establishment of Tack-On Incremental Term B Loans under an amended credit agreement. This financial move, involving multiple lenders and led by Goldman Sachs, aims to support general corporate purposes, including refinancing existing senior notes and covering associated costs. The initiative is expected to enhance TripAdvisor’s financial flexibility and operational capacity.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.