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Seagate Tech
(NASDAQ:STX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$934.00
â–²(13.67% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/03/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong operational and cash-flow recovery and upbeat forward guidance (revenue, margin, and free-cash-flow expansion), partially offset by balance-sheet history (negative equity in recent years), mixed near-term technical setup, and a relatively expensive valuation with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cloud and AI-driven demand growth
Strong growth in data-center shipments and revenue shows Seagate is benefiting from expanding cloud and AI storage requirements. Management also expects multi-quarter exabyte growth, supporting a durable demand outlook and continued scale benefits over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cyclical revenue and margin exposure
Seagate’s recent recovery does not remove the underlying cyclicality of storage hardware demand. Prior revenue declines demonstrate that weaker customer spending can materially reduce volumes and profitability, making future earnings and cash generation vulnerable to another industry downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cloud and AI-driven demand growth
Strong growth in data-center shipments and revenue shows Seagate is benefiting from expanding cloud and AI storage requirements. Management also expects multi-quarter exabyte growth, supporting a durable demand outlook and continued scale benefits over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySeagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$176.19B
Dividend Yield0.38%
Average Volume (3M)4.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.8
Beta (1Y)2.22
Revenue Growth34.06%
EPS Growth108.45%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.54
Shares Outstanding227,393,020
10 Day Avg. Volume5,030,861
30 Day Avg. Volume4,088,809
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)82.89
Price to Sales (P/S)14.73
P/FCF Ratio57.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit34.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda45.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,086.38Price Target Upside32.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)36.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.87B
Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Seagate makes money primarily by selling data storage hardware, with its largest revenue driver historically being HDD shipments to cloud and enterprise customers. Revenue is recognized from product sales to (1) large cloud customers and data-cent...
Seagate Tech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: robust revenue and exabyte growth, sizable margin expansion, record free cash flow, meaningful debt reduction and clear progress on HAMR/Mozaic technology ramps. Management issued confident guidance for further sequential revenue and margin improvement. Offsetting risks are short‑term factory and yield inefficiencies during product transitions, upstream component and supply‑chain complexity as HAMR scales, customer concentration in cloud/data‑center demand, and the potential for quarter‑to‑quarter pricing variability tied to contract timing and renegotiations. On balance, the company’s achievements, guidance and execution momentum outweigh the execution and concentration risks noted.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Performance and Upbeat Guidance
June quarter revenue of $3.6B (+17% sequential, +48% year‑over‑year). Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34% year‑over‑year. September quarter revenue guide of $4.1B ± $100M (midpoint implies ~56% YoY growth). Management expects sequential revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027.
Negative Updates
Factory Complexity and Transitional Inefficiencies
Product transitions (3→4→5 TB per disk) require factory pauses, longer cycle times and can create yield issues and temporary inefficiencies. Management noted factories must pause for transitions and that ramp/yield dynamics can cause short‑term production constraints.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Performance and Upbeat Guidance
June quarter revenue of $3.6B (+17% sequential, +48% year‑over‑year). Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34% year‑over‑year. September quarter revenue guide of $4.1B ± $100M (midpoint implies ~56% YoY growth). Management expects sequential revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Seagate guided September-quarter revenue of $4.1 billion ± $100 million (midpoint ≈ +56% YoY), non‑GAAP EPS of $7.30 ± $0.20 (based on a ~16% tax rate and ~231M diluted shares, including ~2M from 2028 convertibles), and non‑GAAP operating expenses of roughly $300M, implying an operating margin near 50% at the midpoint; management expects OI&E of ~$45M in the September quarter, CapEx for fiscal 2027 to remain in its 4–6% of revenue target (FY26 CapEx was 4.7%, June quarter CapEx $187M), and continued sequential revenue, margin and free‑cash‑flow expansion through fiscal 2027. They reiterated a mid‑20% nearline exabyte growth target over the next few years, noted HAMR represented ~40% of nearline exabyte run rate exiting FY26 with a goal for 50% of HAMR exabytes on Mozaic 4 by end‑calendar‑2026 and Mozaic 5 qualification shipments in late‑2027, said the vast majority of nearline exabytes are allocated into calendar 2028, and highlighted balance‑sheet actions (gross debt ~$3.6B exiting FY26, about $1.2B of debt retirement planned in the September quarter) alongside strong cash generation (June quarter FCF > $1.1B; FY26 FCF $3.1B) and ongoing share repurchases.Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.20B | 9.10B | 6.55B | 7.38B | 11.66B |
| Gross Profit | 5.56B | 3.20B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 3.47B |
| EBITDA | 4.25B | 2.08B | 1.04B | 330.00M | 2.38B |
| Net Income | 3.18B | 1.47B | 335.00M | -529.00M | 1.65B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.97B | 8.02B | 7.74B | 7.56B | 8.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.70B | 891.00M | 1.36B | 786.00M | 617.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.86B | 5.00B | 5.67B | 5.83B | 5.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.80B | 8.48B | 9.23B | 8.76B | 8.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | -453.00M | -1.49B | -1.20B | 109.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.10B | 818.00M | 664.00M | 626.00M | 1.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.67B | 1.08B | 918.00M | 942.00M | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -525.00M | -276.00M | 126.00M | 217.00M | -352.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.34B | -1.27B | -473.00M | -988.00M | -1.90B |
Seagate Tech Technical Analysis
Negative
821.67
Price Trends
856.08
Negative
870.37
Negative
660.37
Positive
Market Momentum
-6.22
Positive
39.21
Neutral
9.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 821.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 860.86, below the 50-day MA of 856.08, and above the 200-day MA of 660.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STX.
Seagate Tech Risk Analysis
Seagate Tech disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Seagate Tech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $45.38B | 33.05 | 113.67% | 0.88% | 12.15% | 24.60% | |
73 Outperform | $141.80B | 14.50 | 118.65% | 0.14% | -2.71% | 407.72% | |
73 Outperform | $365.31B | 33.50 | -574.57% | 0.40% | 48.86% | 152.40% | |
70 Outperform | $176.19B | 53.83 | 348.17% | 0.38% | 34.06% | 108.45% | |
69 Neutral | $29.25B | 11.34 | -727.30% | 3.70% | 8.67% | -4.70% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STX
Seagate Tech
774.83
556.60
255.06%
HPQ
HP
32.44
6.42
24.66%
NTAP
NetApp
231.05
113.73
96.93%
WDC
Western Digital
393.31
274.67
231.52%
DELL
Dell Technologies
574.55
423.08
279.32%
Seagate Tech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Completes Exchange and Redemption of Notes
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings plc, completed the redemption and exchange of the remaining approximately $150.7 million principal amount of its 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The tr...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Seagate Tech Announces Planned Board Director Transition
Neutral
Sep 4, 2026
On September 2, 2026, Seagate Technology director Mr. Shankar Arumugavelu informed the Board that he would not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. He will continue to serve until the conclusion...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech Reports Strong Fiscal Q4 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Seagate Technology reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.6 billion with GAAP gross margin of 52.3% and diluted EPS of $5.58, while full-year 2026 revenue climbed to $12.2 billion, up 34% year over year, with GAAP EPS ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.