Simon Property (SPG) AI Stock Analysis

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Simon Property

(NYSE:SPG)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$178.00

▲(13.45%Upside)

Simon Property's overall score is bolstered by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights. However, high leverage and mixed technical indicators slightly dampen the outlook. The attractive dividend yield and positive corporate developments further support the score.

Positive Factors

Dividends

A dividend of $2.10 was declared, which is an increase of 5.0% year-over-year.

Occupancy Rates

Occupancy rate increased to 95.9%, showing a year-over-year improvement.

Valuation

Shares of Simon Property Group are considered undervalued, leading to an analyst upgrading the stock to a Buy rating.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

1Q headline FFO per share of $2.67 fell short of consensus estimates of $2.91.

Retail Sector Challenges

Mall REITs, including Simon Property Group, have underperformed the broader market indices, reflecting challenges in the sector.

Sales Performance

Reported tenant sales did decline to $733/sqf from $739/sqf.

Simon Property (SPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$59.17B

Dividend Yield5.35%

Average Volume (3M)1.63M

Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4

Beta (1Y)0.98

Revenue Growth4.25%

EPS Growth-14.90%

CountryUS

Employees2,600

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength69

IndustryREIT - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.27

Shares Outstanding326,417,050

10 Day Avg. Volume1,378,277

30 Day Avg. Volume1,629,428

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.44

Price to Book (P/B)12.27

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio12.36

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.95

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.08

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.52

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$176.22

Price Target Upside12.31% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Simon Property Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSimon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) is a leading global real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, development, and management of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations. The company operates in the retail real estate sector, managing a diverse portfolio of properties including regional malls, premium outlets, and community/lifestyle centers. As an S&P 100 company, Simon Property is recognized for its commitment to excellence in property management and customer experience, providing dynamic environments that attract a wide range of consumers and tenants.

How the Company Makes MoneySimon Property Group makes money primarily through the collection of rental income from its extensive portfolio of retail properties. The company's revenue model consists of various key streams, including base minimum rents, overage rents that are contingent on a tenant's sales performance, and common area maintenance charges. Additionally, Simon Property generates income from ancillary services, such as parking, advertising, and sponsorship deals within its centers. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its asset base and tenant mix. Furthermore, Simon Property capitalizes on its scale and expertise in property management to drive value through redevelopment and expansion projects, enhancing the appeal and profitability of its properties.

Simon Property Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, revealing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.

Chart InsightsSimon Property Group's lease income shows a steady recovery post-pandemic, with a notable 5% increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong leasing activity and increased occupancy rates. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties impacting retailer sales, the company's strategic focus on expanding its portfolio and maintaining high occupancy levels underscores its resilience. The recent earnings call highlights a robust financial position, with a 5% dividend increase and stable FFO guidance, suggesting confidence in navigating potential economic challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Simon Property Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -7.28%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments, such as increased occupancy, strong leasing activity, and a dividend hike, along with challenges including decreased funds from operation, economic uncertainties affecting sales, and non-cash losses. The highlights slightly outweigh the lowlights, with a strong emphasis on strategic growth and solid financial positioning.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Positive Start to Fiscal Year 2025

Simon Property Group started 2025 with results exceeding their plan, including the acquisition of The Mall Luxury Outlets in Italy and opening an outlet in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Strong Leasing Activity

Simon Property Group signed 1,500 leases for over 5.1 million square feet in the quarter, with new deals comprising 25% of this activity.

Increased Occupancy Rates

Malls and Premium outlet occupancy increased to 95.9%, up 40 basis points, while the mills occupancy increased to 98.4%, up 70 basis points compared to the prior year.

Rising Average Base Minimum Rents

Average base minimum rents for malls and outlets increased by 2.4% year-over-year, with the mills showing a 3.9% increase.

Dividend Increase

A dividend of $2.10 per share was announced for the second quarter, marking a 5% year-over-year increase.

Stable Guidance for 2025

Simon Property Group reaffirmed their full-year 2025 real estate FFO guidance range of $12.40 to $12.65 per share.

Positive Outlook on Debt Financing

Completed 12 secured loan transactions totaling approximately $2.6 billion with a strong fixed charge coverage ratio of 4.6 times.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Funds from Operation

First quarter funds from operation were $1.0 billion or $2.67 per share, down from $1.33 billion or $3.56 per share last year.

Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty

Tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty are affecting retailer sales and could impact inventory levels, with potential effects on sales.

Non-Cash Losses and Challenges

First quarter results included a $0.17 per share loss from non-cash unrealized mark-to-market adjustments on Klepierre bonds and a $0.05 per share loss related to Catalyst Brands restructuring.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, Simon Property Group provided key guidance and performance metrics for the fiscal year. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 real estate Funds from Operations (FFO) guidance range of $12.40 to $12.65 per share, expecting results to trend towards the middle of the range due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential impacts on retailer sales. In Q1, real estate FFO was reported at $2.95 per share, up from $2.91 the previous year, with domestic and international operations contributing $0.14 of growth driven by a 5% increase in lease income. The company signed 1,500 leases for over 5.1 million square feet, with 80% of leases expiring through 2025 already completed ahead of last year. Occupancy metrics showed positive trends, with malls and premium outlets at 95.9% and the mills at 98.4%, both showing increases compared to the prior year. Average base rents grew by 2.4% for malls and outlets, and 3.9% for mills. The quarter ended with a portfolio NOI growth of 3.6% year-over-year at constant currency. Simon Property Group's balance sheet remains robust with a net-debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.2 times and a fixed charge coverage ratio of 4.6 times. The company announced a second-quarter dividend of $2.10 per share, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year.

Simon Property Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simon Property demonstrates strong profitability and cash flow with solid margins and efficient cash management. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio poses a potential risk to financial stability, warranting careful monitoring of leverage levels.

Income Statement

Positive

Simon Property shows strong profitability with a stable gross profit margin of 78.6% TTM and a net profit margin of 27.3% TTM. The revenue growth rate TTM is 0.5%, indicating modest growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 51.5% and 72.9% respectively, highlighting efficient operational management. However, the revenue growth is relatively low, which may limit future profitability expansion.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 8.24 TTM, suggesting significant leverage which could pose financial risks in adverse market conditions. The return on equity is strong at 54.5% TTM, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low at 9.2% TTM, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing. While profitability is solid, the high leverage could undermine financial stability.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Simon Property exhibits strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 20.6% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.29 TTM, showing efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.25 TTM, indicating strong cash profitability. Despite strong cash flow metrics, the reliance on debt financing remains a concern.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.99B	5.96B	5.66B	5.29B	5.12B	4.61B
	Gross Profit
4.96B	4.92B	4.73B	4.29B	4.15B	3.72B
	EBIT
3.09B	3.09B	2.81B	2.58B	2.41B	1.97B
	EBITDA
4.63B	5.02B	4.07B	4.59B	4.46B	3.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.05B	2.37B	2.28B	2.14B	2.25B	1.11B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.38B	1.40B	2.17B	621.63M	533.94M	1.01B
	Total Assets
32.50B	32.41B	34.28B	33.01B	33.78B	34.79B
	Total Debt
25.27B	24.78B	26.52B	25.46B	25.83B	27.24B
	Net Debt
23.89B	23.38B	25.35B	24.84B	25.29B	26.23B
	Total Liabilities
29.23B	28.81B	30.60B	29.19B	29.38B	31.13B
	Stockholders Equity
2.61B	2.94B	3.02B	3.14B	3.36B	3.04B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
3.05B	3.06B	3.14B	3.12B	3.11B	1.84B
	Operating Cash Flow
3.87B	3.81B	3.93B	3.77B	3.64B	2.33B
	Investing Cash Flow
337.08M	1.41B	-1.36B	-626.56M	-552.76M	-3.98B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.08B	-4.99B	-2.02B	-3.05B	-3.56B	1.99B

Simon Property Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price156.90

Price Trends

50DMA

155.59

Positive

100DMA

163.36

Negative

200DMA

165.23

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.23

Positive

RSI

44.75

Neutral

STOCH

15.55

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 156.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.38, above the 50-day MA of 155.59, and below the 200-day MA of 165.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPG.

Simon Property Risk Analysis

Simon Property disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simon Property reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Simon Property Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KIM	79 Outperform	$14.09B	27.23	5.19%	4.80%	12.55%	45.10%
SPG	74 Outperform	$59.17B	23.44	73.22%	5.35%	4.25%	-14.90%
BRX	74 Outperform	$7.83B	24.42	10.99%	4.49%	4.58%	12.65%
REG	70 Outperform	$12.83B	33.14	5.83%	4.01%	7.39%	3.41%
VNO	64 Neutral	$8.43B	77.56	3.06%	1.83%	0.63%	258.59%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.83B	10.72	0.40%	6.10%	5.80%	-21.26%
MAC	59 Neutral	$4.15B	―	-4.79%	4.32%	9.58%	-3.85%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SPG

Simon Property

156.90

16.35

11.63%

KIM

Kimco Realty

20.83

2.96

16.56%

MAC

Macerich

15.74

1.84

13.24%

REG

Regency Centers

70.25

11.10

18.77%

VNO

Vornado Realty

40.40

15.41

61.66%

BRX

Brixmor Property

25.59

4.25

19.92%

Simon Property Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Simon Property Approves Redomestication to Indiana

Neutral

May 15, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Simon Property Group, Inc. held its annual shareholders meeting where several key proposals were voted on, including the election of directors and the approval of redomestication to Indiana. The redomestication, effective May 15, 2025, transitioned the company and its operating partnership from Delaware to Indiana, aligning their legal governance with their headquarters’ state. This change did not impact the company’s operations, management, or stock trading on the NYSE.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Buy with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Simon Property Reports Strong Q1 2025 Performance

Positive

May 12, 2025

Simon Property Group reported its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting strong financial and operational performance despite a decrease in net income compared to the previous year. The company enhanced its portfolio with the acquisition of luxury outlets in Italy and the opening of Jakarta Premium Outlets in Indonesia. Simon’s net income for the quarter was impacted by an unrealized loss related to Klépierre exchangeable bonds, while its Real Estate Funds From Operations (FFO) saw a slight increase. The company also reported a rise in domestic property Net Operating Income and occupancy rates, and declared a higher quarterly dividend for its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPG) stock is a Buy with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simon Property stock, see the SPG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.