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SpaceX
(NASDAQ:SPCX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$144.00
▲(4.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (sharp profitability setback and materially negative free cash flow) and loss-driven valuation (negative P/E). These are partially offset by a very strong earnings-call outlook with rapid scale targets, major commercial/government traction, and substantial post-IPO liquidity, while technicals are mixed with neutral momentum overall.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Rapid revenue expansion alongside sharply higher adjusted EBITDA indicates strong demand and operating leverage across the platform. If sustained, this scale can improve cost absorption and strengthen SpaceX’s ability to fund its long-term technology investments.
Negative Factors
Deepening Losses and Weak Free Cash Flow
The sharp swing to operating and net losses shows that growth has not yet translated into sustainable GAAP profitability. Persistently negative free cash flow increases dependence on capital allocation discipline and leaves results sensitive to execution delays or spending overruns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Rapid revenue expansion alongside sharply higher adjusted EBITDA indicates strong demand and operating leverage across the platform. If sustained, this scale can improve cost absorption and strengthen SpaceX’s ability to fund its long-term technology investments.
Read all positive factors
SpaceX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows how revenue is split across regions, highlighting concentration in particular markets, exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks, and where international expansion or demand could fuel future growth.
Shows how revenue is split across regions, highlighting concentration in particular markets, exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks, and where international expansion or demand could fuel future growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySpaceX (SPCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.08T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)97.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)5.71
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees22,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding8,085,583,000
10 Day Avg. Volume59,405,592
30 Day Avg. Volume97,527,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.40
Price to Sales (P/S)25.22
P/FCF Ratio-33.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$227.66Price Target Upside65.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering35
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.06B
SpaceX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, and launches rockets and spacecraft, and provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, and Canada. The company offers launch services for satellites, cargo, a...
How the Company Makes Money
SpaceX generates revenue primarily through (1) launch services, (2) spacecraft mission services, and (3) Starlink satellite internet subscriptions and enterprise connectivity.
1) Launch services (commercial and government)
- Commercial launches: ...
SpaceX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed very strong operational and commercial momentum across SpaceX's three core businesses: blockbuster revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, rapid Starlink subscriber additions and constellation expansion, meaningful AI/cloud contract wins and a fast-build compute strategy. These highlights were tempered by very large near-term capital expenditures, segment losses driven by accelerated R&D and infrastructure spending, and execution and regulatory timing risks around Starship, V3 satellite deployment and mobile rollouts. On balance, the positive growth, profitable adjusted EBITDA performance, massive liquidity from the IPO and clear pathways to sizeable future revenue materially outweigh the near-term challenges and investment intensity.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total company revenue of $7.8 billion in Q2 2026, up 92% year-over-year from $4.1 billion; adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year from $1.2 billion; quarterly net loss narrowed to $541 million, an improvement of $467 million versus prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Segment Losses
Company reported a quarterly net loss of $541 million despite improvement; Space segment adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $205 million for the quarter largely due to increased R&D for Starship; AI segment still had a net operating loss of $1.3 billion despite adjusted EBITDA positivity.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Total company revenue of $7.8 billion in Q2 2026, up 92% year-over-year from $4.1 billion; adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year from $1.2 billion; quarterly net loss narrowed to $541 million, an improvement of $467 million versus prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided toward rapid, measurable scale across compute, connectivity and launch: Q2 results were revenues $7.8B (up 92% YoY), net loss $541M (improved $467M) and adjusted EBITDA $3.5B (up 191%); SpaceX expects to end 2026 with >2 GW of nameplate compute (1.4 GW at quarter end, vs. 1.0 GW in Q1 and 0.4 GW a year ago), has line‑of‑sight to multi‑gigawatt expansion in 2027 (management cited a target closer to 10 GW of GPUs and 15–20 GW of power/cooling at the plant level by end‑2027), and has already contracted an incremental $6.7B of cloud services in early Q3 with <1‑year payback on new compute deployments—putting the company on a trajectory to ~$100B ARR by December and an internal $1T revenue target moved from 2031 to 2030 (non‑zero chance of 2029); Connectivity added >1.7M net consumer Starlink subs in Q2 (ARPU $66/mo), has ~10,200 satellites in orbit (9,600 broadband delivering ~800 Tb/s downlink capacity), Connectivity revenue $4.3B (up 66% YoY) with enterprise & government revenue +108% YoY and >$6B of U.S. government awards in Q2, plans to begin operational V3 broadband and V2 mobile launches next year (≈1,000 V3s to materially boost service by ~Q2 next year) and will integrate 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum for mobile; Space operations delivered 78 launches and 1,041 tons to orbit in H1, completed 2 successful Starship V3 flights in 90 days, expects to attempt catches and reuse this year, targets ~1 flight/day within ~12 months and human‑rated safety by end of next year; Q2 CapEx was ~$18.4B (≈$15.8B for AI compute), the company ended the quarter with ~$100B cash and $47.5B backlog after an IPO that raised ≈$85.7B and a $25B senior note offering.SpaceX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 12.51B | 18.67B | 14.02B |
| Gross Profit | 6.63B | 9.22B | 6.02B |
| EBITDA | 2.49B | 4.29B | 3.31B |
| Net Income | -4.82B | -4.94B | 791.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 192.77B | 92.08B | 57.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.01B | 24.75B | 12.19B |
| Total Debt | 39.36B | 22.90B | 13.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.55B | 50.75B | 31.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 127.22B | 41.33B | 25.80B |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.01B | -13.95B | -5.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.47B | 6.79B | 5.78B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.49B | -19.57B | -10.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 100.29B | 26.35B | 11.83B |
SpaceX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $123.74B | 19.25 | 86.24% | 2.63% | 7.20% | 52.79% | |
66 Neutral | $73.67B | 16.35 | 26.58% | 1.85% | 5.90% | 16.00% | |
57 Neutral | $39.42B | -227.77 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
56 Neutral | $2.08T | -95.81 | -7.63% | ― | ― | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
51 Neutral | $3.83B | -9.13 | -32.55% | 7.52% | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
49 Neutral | $166.55B | 77.31 | 104.83% | 2.40% | 24.78% | ― |
* General Sector Average
SPCX
SpaceX
147.55
-13.40
-8.33%
BA
Boeing
206.42
-13.57
-6.17%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
524.46
65.59
14.29%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
515.57
-58.03
-10.12%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
63.07
14.64
30.23%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
21.81
-21.16
-49.24%
SpaceX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX finalizes Cursor acquisition via stock issuance
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, SpaceX completed its previously announced merger of wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. with Anysphere, Inc., known as Cursor, which now operates as a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX. The deal valued Cursor’s equity at $60...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Raises $25 Billion Through Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. began an offering of senior unsecured notes and, on June 26, 2026, issued a total of $25 billion across multiple tranches maturing between 2031 and 2056 with coupons ranging from 5.350% to 6.6...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Launches First Major Multitranch Bond Issuance
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, SpaceX announced the pricing of its inaugural $25 billion bond issuance, comprising multiple tranches of unsecured senior notes maturing between 2031 and 2056, following the commencement of the offering on June 22, 2026. The note...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Launches First Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, SpaceX disclosed to prospective note investors that, as of June 19, 2026, it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while cautioning that its balance as of June 30, 2026 could differ materially. This upda...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SpaceX Adds Roelof Botha to Board, Audit Committee
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SpaceX’s board elected venture capitalist Roelof Botha as an independent common stock director to fill an existing vacancy and appointed him to the audit committee, adding significant public company, audit, and financial ov...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
SpaceX to Acquire Cursor in All-Stock Merger Deal
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SpaceX entered into a merger agreement under which its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. will merge with Anysphere, Inc. (Cursor), leaving Cursor as a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX once the deal closes, subject to regulatory a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SpaceX Completes IPO and Overhauls Post-IPO Governance
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, in connection with the closing of its initial public offering, SpaceX converted approximately 103 million shares of preferred stock into Class A and Class B common stock and completed a global IPO of 638,888,888 Class A shares at...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.