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Super Micro Computer
(NASDAQ:SMCI)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(22.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
SMCI scores as moderately attractive overall: strong technical momentum and upbeat, backlog-driven FY27 outlook are the main positives. The biggest offset is financial quality—material margin compression and highly volatile cash conversion with large FY26 cash burn—plus added risk from customer concentration and governance/reputational disclosures. Valuation is supportive (P/E ~10.9) but does not fully negate the cash-flow and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue growth and AI-driven backlog
Exceptional revenue growth and a record order backlog indicate strong demand for SMCI’s AI and data-center infrastructure platforms. If execution remains effective, this demand can support sustained scale, deepen customer relationships, and provide substantial visibility into growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material margin compression
The sharp decline in gross and net margins shows that rapid growth has not translated proportionally into profitability. Continued pricing pressure, mix effects, or scaling costs could limit earnings conversion and reduce the financial benefit of strong revenue growth unless product mix and operating efficiency improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue growth and AI-driven backlog
Exceptional revenue growth and a record order backlog indicate strong demand for SMCI’s AI and data-center infrastructure platforms. If execution remains effective, this demand can support sustained scale, deepen customer relationships, and provide substantial visibility into growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (such as North America, Asia, and EMEA), highlighting where Super Micro Computer earns its revenue and where demand is strongest. Regional concentration can create exposure to trade tensions, regulatory changes, or local macro weakness, while diverse geographic sales support steadier growth.
Breaks down sales across regions (such as North America, Asia, and EMEA), highlighting where Super Micro Computer earns its revenue and where demand is strongest. Regional concentration can create exposure to trade tensions, regulatory changes, or local macro weakness, while diverse geographic sales support steadier growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySuper Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)35.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)2.91
Revenue Growth77.79%
EPS Growth104.60%
CountryUS
Employees7,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.65
Shares Outstanding656,965,400
10 Day Avg. Volume36,116,303
30 Day Avg. Volume35,970,684
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-2.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.92Price Target Upside1.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)4.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$67.13B
Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and ai...
How the Company Makes Money
SMCI primarily makes money by selling server and storage hardware systems and related subsystems to enterprise, cloud, and data-center customers, including through channel partners. The largest revenue stream is typically complete systems (e.g., r...
Super Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted very strong top-line and EPS growth, record backlog and aggressive FY27 revenue targets, alongside clear margin improvement in Q4 and significant investments in product, manufacturing and go-to-market capabilities. Offsetting risks include elevated inventory and working capital, FY cash burn, customer concentration and some quarter-to-quarter revenue timing volatility tied to customer readiness and infrastructure constraints. Management emphasized operational discipline and product mix improvements to sustain margins and cash conversion as they scale.Positive Updates
Record Fiscal Year Revenue
Fiscal 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, up 78% year-over-year from $22 billion in FY25; Q4 revenue of $11.1 billion, up 93% YoY and 9% QoQ.
Negative Updates
High Inventory Levels and Working Capital Intensity
Q4 closing inventory of $12.9 billion (up from $11.1 billion in Q3); cash conversion cycle increased to 149 days from 106 days QoQ; days inventory outstanding rose to 119 days.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fiscal Year Revenue
Fiscal 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion, up 78% year-over-year from $22 billion in FY25; Q4 revenue of $11.1 billion, up 93% YoY and 9% QoQ.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Super Micro guided Q1 FY‑2027 net sales of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.89–$0.98 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $1.01–$1.10, with expected gross margin of 10.4%–10.8%; GAAP operating expense is expected to be about $453 million (including ~$127 million of stock‑based compensation excluded from non‑GAAP), Q1 CapEx $50–$60 million, other income/expense a net expense of ~ $45 million, and assumed tax rates of 20.1% (GAAP) and 20.5% (non‑GAAP); guidance reflects a fully diluted share count of 745 million (GAAP) and 761 million (non‑GAAP) and the impact of the $4.2 billion mandatory convertible preferred issuance under the two‑class method, while management reiterated full‑year FY‑2027 revenue targeting $65 billion to $72 billion and noted a backlog north of $60 billion with management expecting >80% of future revenues to be AI‑related.Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 39.06B | 21.97B | 14.99B | 7.12B | 5.20B |
| Gross Profit | 4.23B | 2.43B | 2.06B | 1.28B | 800.00M |
| EBITDA | 3.04B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 799.69M | 375.72M |
| Net Income | 2.23B | 1.05B | 1.15B | 640.00M | 285.16M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.95B | 14.02B | 9.83B | 3.67B | 3.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.52B | 5.17B | 1.67B | 440.46M | 267.40M |
| Total Debt | 8.72B | 4.78B | 2.18B | 290.30M | 620.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.47B | 7.72B | 4.41B | 1.70B | 1.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.48B | 6.30B | 5.42B | 1.97B | 1.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -6.97B | 1.53B | -2.61B | 626.79M | -485.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -6.81B | 1.66B | -2.49B | 663.58M | -440.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -200.28M | -183.21M | -194.25M | -39.49M | -46.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.48B | 2.02B | 3.91B | -448.29M | 522.87M |
Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis
Positive
38.46
Price Trends
36.78
Positive
34.76
Positive
32.06
Positive
Market Momentum
1.69
Negative
61.06
Neutral
68.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.35, above the 50-day MA of 36.78, and above the 200-day MA of 32.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMCI.
Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis
Super Micro Computer disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $44.44B | 31.17 | 113.67% | 0.93% | 12.15% | 24.60% | |
74 Outperform | $92.03B | 34.02 | 10.87% | 0.83% | 26.63% | 130.65% | |
73 Outperform | $149.73B | 16.26 | 118.65% | 0.12% | -2.71% | 407.72% | |
73 Outperform | $357.66B | 31.56 | -574.57% | 0.42% | 48.86% | 152.40% | |
70 Outperform | $193.05B | 61.01 | 348.17% | 0.33% | 34.06% | 108.45% | |
68 Neutral | $28.70B | 11.83 | 25.08% | ― | 77.79% | 104.60% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
43.19
-11.88
-21.57%
NTAP
NetApp
223.77
107.31
92.14%
STX
Seagate Tech
887.09
663.40
296.57%
WDC
Western Digital
441.64
321.93
268.94%
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
68.36
43.89
179.36%
DELL
Dell Technologies
552.29
403.32
270.74%
Super Micro Computer Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Supermicro Announces Dividend on Series A Preferred Stock
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Supermicro announced that its Board of Directors has declared an initial cash dividend on the company’s 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, tied to depositary shares trading under the symbol SMCIP on the Nasdaq Global Selec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.