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Sirius XM Holdings
(NASDAQ:SIRI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(4.42% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow generation and a positive earnings call with raised full-year guidance and ongoing cost savings, complemented by a supportive valuation (low P/E and ~4% yield). These positives are tempered by persistent revenue decline/mixed KPI trends and only moderately constructive technical signals.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide SiriusXM with internal funding for content, technology, capital investment, debt reduction, dividends, and repurchases. Sustained cash generation also gives the company flexibility to manage subscriber pressure while continuing to invest in longer-term platform growth.
Negative Factors
Persistent Revenue Contraction
Multi-period revenue contraction signals pressure on SiriusXM’s underlying growth engine rather than a single weak quarter. Slower top-line expansion can limit operating leverage, reduce resources available for content investment, and make margin recovery more dependent on continuing cost reductions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide SiriusXM with internal funding for content, technology, capital investment, debt reduction, dividends, and repurchases. Sustained cash generation also gives the company flexibility to manage subscriber pressure while continuing to invest in longer-term platform growth.
Read all positive factors
Sirius XM Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySirius XM Holdings (SIRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.21B
Dividend Yield3.95%
Average Volume (3M)4.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth0.44%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,119
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.67
Shares Outstanding337,066,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,170,068
30 Day Avg. Volume4,310,219
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio5.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.80Price Target Upside17.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.59B
Sirius XM Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sirius XM primarily makes money by charging subscription fees for access to SiriusXM audio programming. The core revenue stream is subscriber revenue from self-pay customers and promotional/paid trials that commonly originate through new and used ...
Sirius XM Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. Management reported improved subscriber stability, lower churn, stronger engagement, advertising growth in podcasting and programmatic, structural cost savings, higher profitability, robust free cash flow, and another increase to full-year guidance. The principal challenges were flat consolidated revenue, equipment and memory-cost pressure, weaker Sirius XM and streaming music advertising areas, declining conversion rates, podcast inventory constraints, and a more difficult expected fourth quarter for self-pay trends. The positive developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Raised Full-Year Financial Guidance
Sirius XM raised all three full-year 2026 guidance metrics by $25 million, now expecting approximately $8.55 billion in revenue, $2.65 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.4 billion in free cash flow.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue Was Essentially Flat
Third-quarter consolidated revenue was approximately $2.2 billion, essentially unchanged year-over-year. Stable subscription and advertising revenue offset a $7 million decline in equipment revenue.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Full-Year Financial Guidance
Sirius XM raised all three full-year 2026 guidance metrics by $25 million, now expecting approximately $8.55 billion in revenue, $2.65 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.4 billion in free cash flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Sirius XM raised all three full-year financial guidance metrics by $25 million and now expects approximately $8.55 billion in revenue, $2.65 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.4 billion of free cash flow; self-pay net additions are now expected to be approximately flat to 2025 and approximately in line with 2025. The company expects approximately $100 million in incremental gross cost savings in 2026, with $96 million realized through September, and non-satellite CapEx of approximately $400 million-$415 million this year. Fourth-quarter advertising trends are encouraging, with modest year-over-year growth expected, while YouTube Audio is expected to make a modest contribution in 2026 and have a more meaningful impact in the H2 of 2027; the company also has strong confidence in delivering $1.5 billion of free cash flow next year and expects leverage to remain within its long-term target range of low to mid three times.Sirius XM Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.60B | 8.56B | 8.70B | 8.95B | 9.00B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 4.03B | 4.03B | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.52B | 4.40B |
| EBITDA | 1.92B | 2.10B | -747.00M | 2.61B | 2.61B | 2.52B |
| Net Income | 900.00M | 805.00M | -1.67B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.19B | 27.24B | 27.52B | 30.06B | 10.02B | 10.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 210.00M | 94.00M | 162.00M | 306.00M | 57.00M | 191.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.25B | 9.71B | 10.42B | 11.49B | 9.82B | 9.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.04B | 15.67B | 16.45B | 16.95B | 13.37B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.15B | 11.56B | 11.07B | 10.08B | -3.35B | -2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 1.18B | 1.55B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.13B | 1.90B | 1.74B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -668.00M | -747.00M | -970.00M | -696.00M | -548.00M | -200.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.33B | -1.22B | -916.00M | -1.19B | -1.56B | -1.68B |
Sirius XM Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
28.73
Price Trends
27.51
Negative
28.37
Negative
25.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
53.12
Neutral
66.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.74, above the 50-day MA of 27.51, and above the 200-day MA of 25.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIRI.
Sirius XM Holdings Risk Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sirius XM Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sirius XM Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $9.21B | 10.47 | 7.53% | 3.83% | 0.44% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $153.69M | 12,950.00 | 0.06% | 12.74% | 24.86% | 98.15% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $564.80M | 153.00 | 6.98% | 3.27% | 71.38% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $871.39M | -6.24 | -9.15% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | $292.93M | -0.85 | 15.12% | ― | 3.06% | 24.95% | |
44 Neutral | $56.15M | -1.07 | 94.89% | 25.97% | -4.89% | -226.50% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings
27.32
7.17
35.60%
EVC
Entravision
6.12
4.18
215.14%
TSQ
Townsquare Media
3.08
-2.37
-43.50%
IHRT
iHeartMedia
1.56
-1.46
-48.34%
FUBO
fuboTV
7.98
-36.30
-81.98%
CURI
CuriosityStream
2.59
-1.67
-39.24%
Sirius XM Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q3 Results
Positive
Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.15 billion, slightly lower year-over-year due mainly to weaker equipment revenue tied to higher memory costs, while net income rose 7% to $317 million despite lower ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Lifts Outlook After Strong Second Quarter
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings reported solid second-quarter 2026 performance, with consolidated revenue up 1% year-over-year to $2.16 billion and net income rising 17% to $239 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $691 million and free c...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sirius XM COO Wayne Thorsen Departs Amid Restructuring
Negative
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. reported that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Wayne D. Thorsen would leave the company as an employee effective July 31, 2026. The company stated there were no disagreements with Thors...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.