Shore Bancshares (SHBI) Risk Analysis

The processes that we use to estimate our allowance for credit losses and to measure the fair value of financial instruments, as well as the processes used to estimate the effects of changing interest rates and other market measures on our financial condition and results of operations, depend upon the use of analytical and forecasting models. These models reflect assumptions that may not be accurate, particularly in times of market stress or other unforeseen circumstances. Even if these assumptions are adequate, the models may prove to be inadequate or inaccurate because of other flaws in their design or their implementation. If the models that we use for interest rate risk and asset-liability management are inadequate, we could incur increased or unexpected losses upon changes in market interest rates or other market measures. Inaccurate deposit assumptions could render model results unreliable and may mask our true interest rate risk and liquidity risk profiles. Inaccurate model projections and stresses may result in higher-than-forecast funding costs and potentially unexpected liquidity shortfalls. If the models that we use for determining our allowance for expected credit losses are inadequate, the allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to support future charge-offs. If the models that we use to measure the fair value of financial instruments are inadequate, the fair value of such financial instruments may fluctuate unexpectedly or may not accurately reflect what we could realize upon sale or settlement of such financial instruments. Any such failure in our analytical or forecasting models could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Accounting Standard Update ("ASU") No. 2016-13, Financial Instruments – Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, requires advanced modeling techniques, heavy reliance on assumptions, and dependence on historical data that may not accurately forecast losses. CECL can result in volatility in the level of the allowance for credit losses, depending on various factors and assumptions applied in the model, such as forecasted economic conditions and loan payment behaviors. Any increase in the allowance for credit losses, or expenses incurred to determine the appropriate level of the allowance for credit losses, can have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

From time to time the Financial Accounting Standards Board ("FASB") and the SEC change accounting regulations and reporting standards that govern the preparation of our financial statements. In addition, the FASB, SEC, bank regulators and our independent auditors may revise their previous interpretations regarding existing accounting regulations and the application of these accounting standards. These changes can be difficult to predict and can materially impact how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, there could be a requirement to apply a new or revised accounting standard retroactively, resulting in the restatement of prior period financial statements.

Nonperforming assets adversely affect net income in various ways. Interest income is not accrued on nonaccrual loans, other real estate owned or repossessed assets. We must record a reserve for expected credit losses, which is established through a current period charge in the form of a provision for expected credit losses, and from time to time we must write down the value of properties in our other real estate owned and repossessed assets portfolios to reflect changing market values. Additionally, there are legal fees associated with the resolution of problem assets as well as carrying costs such as taxes, insurance and maintenance related to other real estate owned and repossessed assets. Further, the resolution of nonperforming assets requires the active involvement of management, which can distract them from more profitable activities. Finally, if the estimate for the recorded allowance for credit losses proves to be incorrect and the allowance is inadequate, the allowance will have to be increased and, as a result, our earnings would be adversely affected.

At December 31, 2025, 33.60% of our total loan portfolio was secured by one-to-four family real estate, a significant majority of which is located in Maryland, Delaware and northern Virginia. One-to-four family residential mortgage lending is generally sensitive to regional and local economic conditions that significantly impact the ability of borrowers to meet their loan payment obligations, making loss levels difficult to predict. Declines in real estate values could cause some of our residential mortgages to be inadequately collateralized, which would expose us to a greater risk of loss if we seek to recover on defaulted loans by selling the real estate collateral.

Our net income depends to a great extent upon the level of net interest income, which is the difference between the interest income earned on loans, investments, and other interest-earning assets, and the interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. Net interest income is affected by changes in market interest rates because different types of assets and liabilities may react differently, and at different times, to market interest rate changes. When interest-bearing liabilities mature or re-price more quickly than interest-earning assets in a period, an increase in market rates of interest could reduce net interest income. Similarly, when interest-earning assets mature or re-price more quickly than interest-bearing liabilities, falling interest rates could reduce net interest income. Changes in market interest rates are affected by many factors beyond our control, including inflation, unemployment, money supply, fiscal policies of the U.S. government, domestic and international events, and events in U.S. and other financial markets. We attempt to manage our risk from changes in market interest rates by adjusting the rates, maturity, re-pricing, and balances of the different types of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, but interest rate risk management techniques are not exact. As a result, a rapid increase or decrease in interest rates could have an adverse effect on our results of operations. Changes in the market interest rates for types of products and services in various markets also may vary significantly from location to location and over time based upon competition and local or regional economic factors. For further discussion regarding the impact of interest rate movements on net interest income, see Item 7A of this report. The results of any interest rate sensitivity simulation model depend upon a number of assumptions regarding customer behavior, movement of interest rates and cash flows, any of which may prove to be inaccurate.

Under current accounting standards, declines in the fair value of our available for sale or held to maturity securities that are judged to be other-than-temporary would require us to write down the securities to fair value through charges to earnings. These charges could reduce our net income and equity, negatively affect our liquidity, and require us to raise additional capital or curtail growth initiatives. Future triggering events could include prolonged or severe credit deterioration, adverse changes in market conditions (e.g., interest-rate spikes or widening credit spreads), issuer-specific credit events, or unexpected downgrades by rating agencies.

The origination of mortgage loans occurs with the expectation that, if the borrower defaults, the ultimate loss would be mitigated by the value of the collateral that secures the mortgage loan. The ability to mitigate the losses on defaulted loans depends upon the ability to promptly foreclose upon the collateral after an appropriate cure period. The length of the foreclosure process depends on state law and other factors, such as the volume of foreclosures and actions taken by the borrower to stop the foreclosure. Any delay in the foreclosure process will adversely affect us by increasing the expenses related to carrying such assets, such as taxes, insurance, and other carrying costs, and expose us to losses as a result of potential additional declines in the value of such collateral.

When making a loan secured by real property, we generally require an appraisal of the property. However, an appraisal is only an estimate of the value of the property at the time the appraisal is made and does not guarantee that the appraised value could be realized upon sale of the property. Real estate values can change significantly in relatively short periods of time, especially in periods of changing interest rates and economic uncertainty. If the amount realizable upon the sale of the collateral is less than the appraised value, we may not be able to recover the full contractual amount of principal and interest that we anticipated at the time we originated the loan. In addition, we rely on appraisals and other valuation techniques to establish the value of foreclosed real estate and to determine certain loan impairments. If any of these valuations are incorrect, our consolidated financial statements may reflect the incorrect value of our other real estate owned and our allowance for credit losses may not accurately reflect loan impairments.

At December 31, 2025, our commercial real estate loan portfolio totaled $2.64 billion, or 53.95% of our total loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans generally expose a lender to greater risk of non-payment and loss than one-to-four family residential mortgage loans because repayment of the loans often depends on the successful operation of the properties and the income stream of the borrowers. These loans involve larger loan balances to single borrowers or groups of related borrowers compared to one-to-four family residential mortgage loans. Some segments have shown some signs of weakness as rising expenses and debt costs and lower valuations have impacted credit quality metrics. Vacancy rates have risen in the office sector, which is experiencing significant structural shifts that could take several years to fully materialize as remote work practices normalize. To the extent that borrowers have more than one commercial real estate loan outstanding, an adverse development with respect to one loan or one credit relationship could expose us to a significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to a one-to-four family residential real estate loan. Moreover, if loans that are collateralized by commercial real estate become troubled and the value of the real estate has deteriorated significantly, then we may not be able to recover the full contractual amount of principal and interest that we anticipated at the time we originated the loan. A decline in the value of the collateral for a loan may require us to increase our allowance for credit losses, which would adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.

The business of lending is inherently risky, including risks that the principal of or interest on any loan will not be repaid timely, or at all, or that the value of any collateral supporting the loan will be insufficient to cover our outstanding exposure. These risks may be affected by the strength of the borrower's business sector and local, regional and national market and economic conditions. Many of our loans are made to small- to medium-sized businesses that may be less able to withstand competitive, economic and financial pressures than larger borrowers. Our risk management practices, such as monitoring the concentration of loans within specific industries and credit approval practices, may not adequately reduce credit risk, and credit administration personnel, policies and procedures may not adequately adapt to changes in economic or any other conditions affecting customers and the quality of the loan portfolio. A failure to effectively measure and limit the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio could lead to unexpected losses and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We maintain an allowance for credit losses in an amount that is believed to be appropriate to provide for expected losses inherent in the portfolio. We monitor credit quality and seek to identify loans that may become nonperforming; however, at any time there could be loans in the portfolio that may result in losses, but that have not been identified as nonperforming or potential problem credits. We may be unable to identify all deteriorating credits prior to them becoming nonperforming assets, or to limit losses on those loans that are identified. As a result, future additions to the allowance may be necessary. Additionally, future additions to the allowance may be required based on changes in forecasted economic conditions, changes in the loans comprising the portfolio and changes in the financial condition of borrowers, or as a result of assumptions used by management in determining the allowance. Additionally, banking regulators, as an integral part of their supervisory function, periodically review the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses. These regulatory agencies may require an increase in the provision for expected credit losses or to recognize further loan charge-offs based upon their judgments, which may be different from ours. Any increase in the allowance for credit losses could have a negative effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

We require sufficient liquidity to fund loan commitments, satisfy depositor withdrawal requests, make payments on our debt obligations as they become due, and meet other cash commitments. Liquidity risk is the potential that we will be unable to meet our obligations as they become due because of an inability to liquidate assets or obtain adequate funding at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner, and without adverse conditions or consequences. Our sources of liquidity consist primarily of cash, assets readily convertible to cash (such as investment securities), increases in deposits, advances, as needed, from the FHLB, borrowings, as needed, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and other borrowings. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities or on acceptable terms could be impaired by factors that affect our organization specifically or the financial services industry or economy generally. Core deposits and FHLB advances are our primary source of funding. A significant decrease in core deposits, an inability to renew FHLB advances, an inability to obtain alternative funding to core deposits or FHLB advances, or a substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could have a negative effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.