Holmen AB (HOLM.A) AI Stock Analysis

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Holmen AB

(Nasdaq OMX AB:HOLM.A)

Select Model

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:SEK 316.00▲(6.04% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/24/26

Overall score reflects strong financial resilience (low leverage and positive free cash flow) but meaningful near-term pressure from deteriorated income statement quality (compressed margins, negative gross margin). Technical indicators are notably weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), which materially drags the score, while valuation is only moderately supportive due to a mid-to-high P/E balanced by a ~3.16% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheetVery low leverage gives Holmen financial resilience and flexibility through weaker industry conditions. A substantial equity base reduces dependence on borrowing, limits interest-related pressure, and preserves capacity to fund forestry, industrial operations, or other long-term priorities.

Negative Factors

Severe margin deteriorationThe negative gross margin and materially weaker profitability indicate substantial pressure on operating economics or product mix. Even with positive operating and net margins, sustained compression could reduce reinvestment capacity and weaken earnings quality if conditions persist.

Holmen AB (HOLM.A) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Market Cap: SEK 45.08B
Dividend Yield: 3.19%
Average Volume (3M): 2,517
Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.7
Beta (1Y): 0.55
Revenue Growth: -5.15%
EPS Growth: -24.57%
Country: Sweden
Employees: 3,435
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products

Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holmen AB engages in the manufacture of paperboard, paper and wood products and runs forestry and energy production operations. It operates through the following segments: Forest, Paperboard, Paper, Wood Products, Renewable Energy, Group-wide and Oth...

How the Company Makes Money

Holmen makes money primarily by monetizing its forest assets through vertically integrated industrial operations and energy production. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of paper and paperboard: Holmen manufactures and sells paper and paperboard...

Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed. The balance sheet is a clear strength (low leverage at ~0.13x debt/equity; solid capitalization), and cash flow remains positive with improving free cash flow (TTM FCF ~2.3B, +23.8% growth). However, operating performance has weakened: revenue is slightly down (-1.77%) and margins have compressed sharply, including a negative gross margin (-25.0%), with only moderate cash-to-earnings conversion (FCF ~55% of net income).

Income Statement

55Neutral

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

70Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.23B	22.06B	22.76B	22.80B	23.95B	19.48B
Gross Profit	-5.51B	366.00M	10.24B	12.12B	13.75B	9.83B
EBITDA	3.45B	4.76B	5.15B	6.16B	8.85B	5.00B
Net Income	2.10B	2.88B	2.86B	3.70B	5.87B	3.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	81.35B	80.86B	81.55B	79.72B	81.44B	68.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.00M	390.00M	234.00M	1.20B	1.94B	507.00M
Total Debt	6.34B	5.10B	3.68B	3.17B	3.15B	4.34B
Total Liabilities	26.37B	25.46B	24.18B	22.80B	24.49B	21.11B
Stockholders Equity	54.98B	55.41B	57.37B	56.92B	56.95B	46.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.33B	1.71B	1.20B	4.10B	4.09B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	3.68B	3.85B	3.32B	5.80B	5.48B	3.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.33B	-2.12B	-2.07B	-1.65B	-1.35B	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.30B	-1.58B	-2.22B	-4.89B	-2.71B	-1.76B

Holmen AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price298.00

Price Trends

50DMA317.56Negative

100DMA313.57Negative

200DMA320.76Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-5.58Positive

RSI32.22Neutral

STOCH5.86Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 298.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 311.40, below the 50-day MA of 317.56, and below the 200-day MA of 320.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.A.

Holmen AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

SE:HOLM.A against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SE:SCA.B	62Neutral	SEK 84.54B	39.09	2.14%	2.49%	-3.07%	-38.98%
SE:HOLM.A	60Neutral	SEK 45.08B	21.68	3.83%	3.19%	-5.15%	-24.57%
SE:STE.A	58Neutral	SEK 82.74B	12.99	3.71%	1.42%	-3.86%	―
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
SE:BILL	51Neutral	SEK 21.59B	93.33	0.84%	2.30%	-9.00%	-80.79%
SE:RROS	43Neutral	SEK 650.15M	-2.35	-18.41%	―	-10.40%	38.81%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SE:HOLM.A and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
SE:HOLM.A	Holmen AB	298.00	-43.11	-12.64%
SE:BILL	BillerudKorsnas AB	86.80	1.58	1.86%
SE:STE.A	Stora Enso Oyj (0M32)	104.00	-5.76	-5.25%
SE:SCA.B	Svenska Cellulosa Sca Ab	120.40	-0.34	-0.28%
SE:RROS	Rottneros AB	2.44	-0.29	-10.81%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2026

Holmen AB AI Stock Analysis