Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
Top Page
Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(8.49% Upside)
Shoe Carnival's overall score reflects strong earnings performance and valuation, offset by challenges in financial performance and technical indicators. The company's strategic focus on premium brands and disciplined pricing is promising, but operational efficiency and inventory management need improvement.
Positive Factors
Margin Expansion
The significant margin expansion indicates improved operational efficiency and pricing strategy, enhancing long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Rebanner Strategy
The successful rebanner strategy reflects a strategic shift towards higher-margin stores, potentially increasing market share and profitability over time.
Strong Financial Position
A strong financial position with substantial cash reserves and no debt provides flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against economic downturns.
Negative Factors
Decline in Shoe Carnival Sales
The decline in sales indicates challenges in maintaining customer engagement and market share, potentially impacting revenue and profitability if not addressed.
Excess Inventory Levels
High inventory levels can lead to increased holding costs and potential markdowns, affecting cash flow and profit margins if not effectively managed.
Impact of Rebanner Investments on EPS
While strategic, the rebanner investments are currently impacting earnings, which could pressure short-term financial performance until benefits materialize.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$604.39M
Dividend Yield2.58%
Average Volume (3M)476.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth-6.42%
EPS Growth-19.27%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding27,372,822
10 Day Avg. Volume424,981
30 Day Avg. Volume476,613
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio10.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.75Price Target Upside5.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionShoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyShoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company employs a value-driven pricing strategy, regularly offering promotions and discounts to stimulate sales and attract customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from physical locations, e-commerce transactions, and exclusive brand partnerships that may offer higher profit margins. Additionally, Shoe Carnival's loyalty program encourages repeat purchases, providing a consistent revenue flow. Seasonal promotions and back-to-school sales are particularly significant, as they contribute substantially to overall sales volume. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and trends in the footwear market also plays a crucial role in sustaining its earnings.
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong quarter with significant progress in the rebanner strategy and margin growth, especially during the back-to-school period. However, challenges remain with declining sales in Shoe Carnival and high inventory levels. The company's financial position remains strong, and strategic investments are expected to pay off in the long term.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Earnings Beat and Margin Expansion
Shoe Carnival beat earnings consensus by over 20% and expanded gross margins by 270 basis points to 38.8%, marking the strongest Q2 margin in years.
Successful Back-to-School Season
The company achieved positive comparable sales growth during the back-to-school period, a critical time that represents 25% of annual profits.
Growth in Shoe Station
Shoe Station grew sales by high single digits and expanded margins, outperforming Shoe Carnival by over 10% on merchandise sales during Q2 and back-to-school.
Rebanner Strategy Progress
The rebanner strategy is exceeding targets with Shoe Station stores doubling since acquisition, aiming to reach 51% of the fleet by back-to-school 2026.
Strong Financial Position
The balance sheet is robust with cash and securities up over 10% year-over-year at nearly $150 million and zero debt.
Negative Updates
Decline in Shoe Carnival Sales
Shoe Carnival saw a 10.1% decline in sales and high single-digit comps decline in Q2, primarily driven by pressures on the low-income consumer.
Excess Inventory Levels
Inventory at quarter-end was $449 million, up 5% versus last year, reflecting strategic investments but also indicating a potential risk if inventory levels remain high.
Impact of Rebanner Investments on EPS
Rebanner investments had a $0.21 EPS impact in Q2, with an expected $0.70 impact for the full fiscal year.
Sub-$30,000 Income Consumer Pressure
The sub-$30,000 income consumer continues to face pressure, affecting Shoe Carnival's performance, which is being managed as a cash generator during the transition.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Shoe Carnival reported a significant earnings beat, exceeding consensus by over 20% and achieving a gross margin expansion of 270 basis points to 38.8%. Despite a year-over-year EPS decline due to planned investments in the rebanner strategy, the company experienced strong comparable sales growth during the critical back-to-school period, which accounts for approximately 25% of their annual profits. Shoe Station led the performance with high single-digit sales growth and a 280 basis point increase in product margins, driven by a shift towards higher-income customers. This strategic focus on premium brands and disciplined pricing has allowed Shoe Carnival to raise its annual profit guidance, projecting net sales between $1.12 billion and $1.15 billion and an EPS range of $1.70 to $2.10. The company plans to expand the Shoe Station fleet to 145 stores by the end of the fiscal year, ultimately aiming for 51% of its fleet to be Shoe Station stores by back-to-school 2026, marking a pivotal shift in its business model.Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Shoe Carnival's financial statements indicate challenges in revenue growth and operational efficiency, with declining margins and cash flow metrics. However, the balance sheet remains relatively strong with moderate leverage and a solid equity position.Income Statement
Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 2.23%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin stands at 36.11%, which is healthy but has decreased from previous periods. Net profit margin is at 5.41%, showing profitability but also a decline from prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is 9.58%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns with a significant decline in free cash flow growth by 40.27% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, indicating that cash generation from operations is lower compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B | 976.76M |
| Gross Profit | 416.64M | 428.79M | 421.39M | 468.16M | 526.79M | 279.98M |
| EBITDA | 107.10M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 169.64M | 269.44M | 80.08M |
| Net Income | 62.48M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M | 15.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M | 642.75M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 91.92M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M | 106.53M |
| Total Debt | 361.58M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M | 231.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 494.56M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M | 332.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 670.69M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M | 310.18M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.67M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M | 51.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.52M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.47M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M | -12.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.96M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M | -6.67M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Negative
21.66
Price Trends
21.82
Negative
20.66
Positive
22.83
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
44.20
Neutral
11.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.87, below the 50-day MA of 21.82, and below the 200-day MA of 22.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | 3.01B | 14.75 | 46.12% | 6.64% | 1.62% | -2.57% | |
76 Outperform | 5.14B | 26.84 | 16.68% | ― | 16.70% | 27.76% | |
68 Neutral | $604.39M | 9.73 | 9.69% | 2.58% | -6.42% | -19.27% | |
66 Neutral | 3.03B | 17.23 | 12.76% | 2.81% | -2.73% | -16.71% | |
58 Neutral | 193.22M | -5.37 | -11.31% | 5.35% | -4.63% | -637.55% | |
57 Neutral | 344.70M | -12.54 | -4.37% | ― | 2.66% | -4772.54% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
21.48
-21.19
-49.66%
AEO
American Eagle
17.80
-3.34
-15.80%
BKE
Buckle
59.79
19.25
47.48%
DBI
Designer Brands
3.74
-2.86
-43.33%
GCO
Genesco
30.71
3.60
13.28%
BOOT
Boot Barn
169.18
4.06
2.46%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Shoe Carnival Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025
On June 25, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made. Directors were elected for three-year terms, executive compensation was approved in an advisory vote, and Deloitte & Touche LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm for fiscal 2025 was ratified, indicating continued stability and strategic direction for the company.
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Shoe Carnival Chair’s Spouse Donates Significant Shares
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025
On June 12, 2025, Delores B. Weaver, spouse of Shoe Carnival‘s Chairman, gifted 166,666 shares of the company’s common stock to a donor-advised charitable gift fund as part of her estate planning. This move, filed with the SEC on June 13, 2025, highlights Mrs. Weaver’s ongoing commitment to philanthropy, as she plans to continue donating shares over the coming years, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.