Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)
NASDAQ:RCEL
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Avita Medical
(NASDAQ:RCEL)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-16.67% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality—large ongoing losses, persistent cash burn, and negative equity—despite strong revenue growth and high gross margins. Technicals also remain soft with the stock below major moving averages. The latest earnings call adds some support via reaffirmed guidance, cost discipline, and improving operating trends, but near-term liquidity and product-mix margin pressures remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Recurring consumables business model
The RECELL platform generates recurring procedure-level revenue via single-use consumables tied to each treatment. This razor/razor-blades model creates customer stickiness and predictable per-procedure economics, supporting durable top-line capture as adoption and utilization expand.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn & negative FCF
Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow (~-$31M TTM) forces reliance on external financing or material cash-burn reductions to sustain growth. With modest quarter-end cash (~$14.3M) and quarterly burn near ~$9.9M, liquidity constraints could limit commercialization investments or force dilutive financings absent sustained burn improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring consumables business model
The RECELL platform generates recurring procedure-level revenue via single-use consumables tied to each treatment. This razor/razor-blades model creates customer stickiness and predictable per-procedure economics, supporting durable top-line capture as adoption and utilization expand.
Read all positive factors
Avita Medical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Avita Medical (RCEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$134.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)250.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth0.96%
EPS Growth28.36%
CountryUS
Employees260
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-35.96
Shares Outstanding30,776,690
10 Day Avg. Volume233,593
30 Day Avg. Volume250,647
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)-5.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio-2.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.17Price Target Upside49.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$82.79M
Avita Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AVITA Medical Inc. operates as a commercial-stage regenerative tissue company in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. It offers regenerative products to address unmet medical needs in burn injuries, trauma injuries, chronic wounds...
How the Company Makes Money
Avita Medical primarily makes money by selling the RECELL System and associated single-use consumables used per procedure to hospitals and burn centers. Revenue is generated when healthcare providers purchase the device (capital equipment) and, mo...
Avita Medical Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple positive operational and commercial developments: sequential and year-over-year revenue growth, reduced operating expenses, improving net loss, RECELL reimbursement normalization, encouraging Cohealyx clinical data, BARDA partnership, and a credit facility structured with meaningful covenant headroom. Offsetting these positives are margin pressure from product mix and inventory reserves, a seasonal cash burn with a modest cash balance, and the early-stage commercialization risk of Cohealyx and PermeaDerm requiring further adoption and data to realize scale. Overall, the company appears to be transitioning from stabilization to execution with tangible early momentum but still faces near-term cash and margin headwinds as new products scale.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Momentum
Total revenue of ~$19.3M in Q1 2026, up ~4% year-over-year and ~10% sequentially (Q1 vs Q4 2025); highest quarterly revenue in the past year and momentum continuing into April.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure from Product Mix and Inventory Reserves
Gross profit margin declined to 81.7% from 84.7% YoY (≈3.0 percentage points) primarily due to inventory reserves and a higher mix of lower-margin early-stage products (Cohealyx and PermeaDerm).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Momentum
Total revenue of ~$19.3M in Q1 2026, up ~4% year-over-year and ~10% sequentially (Q1 vs Q4 2025); highest quarterly revenue in the past year and momentum continuing into April.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed full‑year 2026 net revenue guidance of $80–$85 million and said it expects continued sequential growth into Q2 driven by increasing utilization across core burn and Tier 1 trauma accounts; Q1 revenue was ~$19.3 million (up ~4% YoY and ~10% sequentially), gross margin was 81.7% (RECELL ~85%), operating expenses were $24.5 million (down 11% YoY), net loss was $10.6 million (‑$0.35/share), and net cash used in Q1 was ~$9.9 million with cash and marketable securities of ~$14.3 million at quarter end — management expects a significant decrease in cash burn in Q2. They noted capital headroom under the Perceptive credit facility (a trailing‑12‑month revenue covenant of $69 million implies a Q2 revenue requirement of ~$15 million), highlighted a BARDA agreement that guarantees ~$3.9 million over 10 years (~$100k/quarter, ~$30k/month) with up to ~$25.5 million contingent on a mass‑casualty event, and pointed to operational metrics supporting repeatable growth (e.g., Cohealyx median time to grafting ~11 days and an approximate 20‑day reduction in time to graft readiness versus benchmark).Avita Medical Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 72.35M | 71.61M | 64.25M | 50.14M | 34.42M | 33.02M |
| Gross Profit | 58.86M | 58.82M | 55.16M | 42.36M | 28.38M | 26.92M |
| EBITDA | -37.72M | -39.59M | -55.30M | -33.54M | -26.05M | -24.40M |
| Net Income | -45.34M | -48.59M | -61.84M | -35.38M | -26.66M | -25.14M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.54M | 56.39M | 79.71M | 111.64M | 98.26M | 116.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.26M | 18.18M | 35.88M | 89.06M | 79.34M | 85.16M |
| Total Debt | 1.98M | 46.05M | 45.98M | 42.41M | 918.00K | 1.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 74.71M | 73.04M | 75.21M | 62.58M | 13.52M | 11.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | -23.17M | -16.65M | 4.50M | 49.06M | 84.74M | 104.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.74M | -32.20M | -58.27M | -39.46M | -19.61M | -18.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -30.96M | -31.20M | -48.94M | -38.01M | -19.09M | -18.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.73M | 12.45M | 37.36M | 1.61M | -19.33M | -50.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.67M | 14.94M | 3.51M | 40.37M | 900.00K | 64.06M |
Avita Medical Technical Analysis
Negative
4.80
Price Trends
4.36
Negative
4.36
Negative
4.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
46.05
Neutral
29.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, above the 50-day MA of 4.36, and above the 200-day MA of 4.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RCEL.
Avita Medical Risk Analysis
Avita Medical disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avita Medical reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avita Medical Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $196.79M | -17.71 | -7.74% | ― | -15.41% | 79.57% | |
49 Neutral | $68.03M | 2.32 | -514.92% | ― | 1.12% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $207.13M | -2.19 | -370.21% | ― | 23.03% | 60.80% | |
45 Neutral | $134.19M | -28.16 | 305.45% | ― | 0.96% | 28.36% | |
44 Neutral | $148.20M | -0.37 | 1136.06% | ― | 26.87% | -85.65% | |
44 Neutral | $99.15M | -1.80 | -131.52% | ― | 15.99% | -8.91% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
RCEL
Avita Medical
4.18
-1.93
-31.59%
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25.69%
LNSR
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5.60
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-57.22%
OWLT
Owlet
4.67
-1.48
-24.07%
RPID
Rapid Micro Biosystems
1.99
-1.55
-43.79%
LUCD
Lucid Diagnostics
0.97
-0.33
-25.62%
Avita Medical Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Avita Medical Shareholders Approve 2026 Governance and Equity Plans
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
AVITA Medical, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders by live webcast on June 3, 2026, with a quorum of shareholders participating. Investors re-elected all seven directors, ratified Grant Thornton LLP as independent auditor for 2026, a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Avita Medical Names Cary Vance Permanent CEO, Reshapes Board
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, AVITA Medical named longtime director Cary Vance as its permanent President and Chief Executive Officer, following his interim leadership since October 2025 and a formal search process. Vance’s appointment, which includes ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.