Persimmon (PSMMY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance reiterated that, assuming stable market conditions, Persimmon expects to deliver around 12,500 homes in FY26 (the top end of prior guidance) with underlying PBT broadly in line with consensus and year‑end net cash in line with previous guidance; adjusted gearing was 18% at 30 June (including land creditors) and could be around 20% at year‑end. Key H1 metrics underpinning that view include 5,189 completions (+13%), private completions 4,261 (+7%), average outlets 273, net private weekly sales 205 (+7%), a private sales rate (incl. bulk) of 0.75 (5‑week rate 0.72 incl. bulk, 0.59 excl.), a £1.9bn total forward order book (private book £1.3bn, up 5%, ~8% sold for the year; affordable order book £600m fully secured), underlying PBT £170m (+3%), underlying operating profit £189m (+10%) with a 12.8% operating margin, housing revenue ~£1.5bn, gross profit £267m (gross margin 18%), underlying EPS 38p (+3%), ROCE 11.3% (+10%), net debt £165m, PX stock £168m, £1bn committed bank facilities, owned/controlled land bank ~81,000 plots (strategic/promoter land ~93,000 plots), 6,123 detailed planning plots secured in H1 (118% of completions), and remediation items: closing provision £206m, H1 remediation spend £24m (total >£200m to date) with c.£100m planned this year; management also flags an embedded cost headwind of c.£40–50m over 18 months (half already identified to be mitigated) and reiterates medium‑term ambitions of a 20% operating margin and improved ROCE.