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Persimmon (PSMMY)
OTHER OTC:PSMMY
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Persimmon (PSMMY) AI Stock Analysis

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PSMMY

Persimmon

(OTC:PSMMY)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(6.25% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/07/26
PSMMY scores in the upper-mid range primarily due to strong balance-sheet strength and supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). The score is constrained by weaker earnings quality signals (volatile cash flow and negative 2025 free cash flow) and ongoing margin pressure highlighted in the earnings call, while technicals are constructive but not fully confirmed given stretched momentum and the price still below the 200-day average.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Persistently low leverage and a large equity base give Persimmon durable financial flexibility in a cyclical industry. This supports land acquisition, development spending and remediation funding without undue refinancing risk, preserving ability to invest or return capital over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression & Build-Cost Inflation
Margins have materially compressed from prior years due to mix shift, incentives and embedded build-cost inflation. Persistent higher input costs and incentive needs will constrain operating margin recovery and ROCE, making medium-term margin targets challenging absent sustained cost mitigation or pricing power.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Persistently low leverage and a large equity base give Persimmon durable financial flexibility in a cyclical industry. This supports land acquisition, development spending and remediation funding without undue refinancing risk, preserving ability to invest or return capital over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors

Persimmon (PSMMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Persimmon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Persimmon Plc operates as a prominent residential property developer throughout the United Kingdom, inclusive of its subsidiary companies. The firm offers a varied portfolio of housing, encompassing family residences marketed under the Persimmon H...
How the Company Makes Money
Persimmon makes money primarily by developing and selling new-build residential properties. Its core revenue stream is the sale of completed homes to private buyers and other purchasers, with revenue typically recognized when legal completion occu...

Persimmon Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a decidedly positive operational story: clear volume-led growth (completions +13%), higher operating profit (+10%) and stronger order book and land/pipeline positions. These positives are tempered by meaningful near-term margin headwinds from embedded build-cost inflation, incentives, remediation liabilities (GBP 206m) and a short-term sales softening. Management retains a strong balance sheet, medium-term targets (20% operating margin and improved ROCE) and active mitigation plans (self-help cost savings, vertical integration, new house types), and reiterates guidance for c.12,500 homes in 2026. Overall the positives around growth, cash/land position and strategic progress outweigh the near-term cost and execution risks.
Positive Updates
Volume and Completions Growth
New home completions rose 13% to 5,189 in H1 (and are up 22% over three years), driven by higher outlets and improved sales rates; average outlets were 273 (versus 272 last year).
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure and Cost Inflation
Gross margin was lower (reported gross margin ~18%) and operating margin reduced from 13.1% to 12.8% due to product mix (more affordable/HA units), higher incentives and embedded build cost inflation; management expects continued margin pressure into H2 and 2027.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Volume and Completions Growth
New home completions rose 13% to 5,189 in H1 (and are up 22% over three years), driven by higher outlets and improved sales rates; average outlets were 273 (versus 272 last year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance reiterated that, assuming stable market conditions, Persimmon expects to deliver around 12,500 homes in FY26 (the top end of prior guidance) with underlying PBT broadly in line with consensus and year‑end net cash in line with previous guidance; adjusted gearing was 18% at 30 June (including land creditors) and could be around 20% at year‑end. Key H1 metrics underpinning that view include 5,189 completions (+13%), private completions 4,261 (+7%), average outlets 273, net private weekly sales 205 (+7%), a private sales rate (incl. bulk) of 0.75 (5‑week rate 0.72 incl. bulk, 0.59 excl.), a £1.9bn total forward order book (private book £1.3bn, up 5%, ~8% sold for the year; affordable order book £600m fully secured), underlying PBT £170m (+3%), underlying operating profit £189m (+10%) with a 12.8% operating margin, housing revenue ~£1.5bn, gross profit £267m (gross margin 18%), underlying EPS 38p (+3%), ROCE 11.3% (+10%), net debt £165m, PX stock £168m, £1bn committed bank facilities, owned/controlled land bank ~81,000 plots (strategic/promoter land ~93,000 plots), 6,123 detailed planning plots secured in H1 (118% of completions), and remediation items: closing provision £206m, H1 remediation spend £24m (total >£200m to date) with c.£100m planned this year; management also flags an embedded cost headwind of c.£40–50m over 18 months (half already identified to be mitigated) and reiterates medium‑term ambitions of a 20% operating margin and improved ROCE.

Persimmon Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong balance sheet (very low leverage and high financial flexibility) supports resilience in a cyclical industry, but the overall picture is held back by sharp margin compression versus 2020–2022 and notably weak/volatile cash generation, with 2025 free cash flow turning negative and poor cash conversion versus net income.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.97B3.75B3.20B2.77B3.82B3.61B
Gross Profit581.33M641.72M580.40M795.10M867.50M1.08B
EBITDA471.51M456.40M400.40M368.80M738.20M973.50M
Net Income305.24M279.44M267.10M255.40M561.00M787.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.48B5.31B4.83B4.79B5.03B4.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments109.34M116.79M258.60M420.10M861.60M1.25B
Total Debt275.00M16.77M14.50M188.40M498.00M436.90M
Total Liabilities1.86B1.70B1.33B1.37B1.59B1.17B
Stockholders Equity3.61B3.61B3.51B3.42B3.44B3.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-164.05M-11.74M52.60M-166.20M371.80M763.90M
Operating Cash Flow-136.85M27.97M84.90M-129.80M402.30M784.80M
Investing Cash Flow37.19M26.21M-45.00M-42.90M-29.80M-18.20M
Financing Cash Flow82.38M-192.68M-201.40M-268.80M-757.50M-754.10M

Persimmon Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$3.75B12.219.97%-4.94%-35.08%
74
Outperform
$4.35B24.3516.51%9.69%-0.39%
73
Outperform
$4.76B25.5112.11%3.74%4.52%-9.26%
68
Neutral
$4.97B12.058.45%5.19%21.76%23.36%
64
Neutral
$3.20B12.447.04%1.91%-17.52%-45.77%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
58
Neutral
$4.39B14.036.38%2.70%-13.27%-45.63%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PSMMY
Persimmon
30.95
2.58
9.09%
CVCO
Cavco Industries
566.19
20.00
3.66%
KBH
KB Home
52.25
-14.39
-21.60%
MHO
M/I Homes
148.26
-8.96
-5.70%
MTH
Meritage
67.33
-12.71
-15.88%
SKY
Champion Homes
87.76
10.71
13.90%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2026