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KGHM Polska Miedz SA (PL:KGH)
:KGH
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KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) AI Stock Analysis

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PL:KGH

KGHM Polska Miedz SA

(KGH)

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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
zł149.00
▼(-59.11% Downside)
Action:N/A
Date:09/16/25
The stock's outlook is anchored by resilient financial performance and attractive valuation, but is constrained by weak free cash flow and lack of technical support. The most significant risks stem from operational cash pressures and declining net profits, while international asset strength and improved margins partially offset these concerns. The absence of technical momentum and income appeal moderate the score further.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Decline
A significant decline in net profit due to exchange rate impacts can affect financial performance, limiting reinvestment capacity and dividend potential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Read all positive factors

KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

KGHM Polska Miedz SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. operates in the mining, production, and international distribution of copper, precious metals, and various non-ferrous metals, catering to both Polish and global markets. The company's comprehensive product lineup includes c...
How the Company Makes Money
KGHM generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and silver, which are its core products. The company extracts copper from its mining operations and refines it into various forms, including cathodes and wire rods, which are sold to manu...

KGHM Polska Miedz SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially stronger financial results (revenues ~+40%, EBITDA ~+90%, tenfold net profit increase), improved margins (25% to 34%), solid operating cash flow and successful cost optimization progress, alongside accelerated project execution (CapEx, Line 4, shafts, smelter refurbishments). These positives were tempered by localized operational setbacks (Sierra Gorda copper -5%, KGHM International -34%, Robinson processing issues), temporary inventory build‑up tying cash, and market volatility/supply risks. On balance the positive financial and strategic developments outweigh the operational challenges, which management is addressing through repairs, exploration and optimization.
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenues increased by almost 40% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, driven by higher metal prices and increased sales volumes.
Negative Updates
Sierra Gorda Copper Production Decline
Sierra Gorda payable copper production was down ~5% year‑on‑year in H1 2026; management attributed the decline to heavy rains in Chile earlier in the year impacting processing and throughput.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenues increased by almost 40% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, driven by higher metal prices and increased sales volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided that KGHM delivered very strong H1 2026 results and will use the favorable market to build a financial base for growth while returning cash to shareholders: revenues were up ~40% y/y, EBITDA nearly +90% (operating margin rose from 25% to 34%) and net profit was about tenfold y/y, with paid copper production +20% y/y and silver +8% y/y; H1 operating cash flow exceeded PLN 2.5bn (free cash flow after investments ~PLN 774m) and inventory peaked at ~PLN 2.5bn (Q‑to‑Q change PLN +485m: ~PLN 135m volume / >PLN 350m price), while nearly 60,000 anodes are being processed; capex in H1 was PLN 1.439bn (including major smelter works such as Glogów II refurbishment, ~PLN 670m) and the cost‑optimization program targets PLN 1bn of savings by 2028 vs 2024 (c. PLN 300m saved so far); international cash flow was $290.3m (Sierra Gorda >$270m) with international assets contributing ~20% to adjusted EBITDA (~PLN 2.5bn), Robinson EBITDA >PLN 780m in H1, and Sierra Gorda Line 4 is budgeted at ~$725m CapEx to lift metal output ~20% (3‑year build, full operation H2 2030); energy costs were ~PLN 1.2bn in H1 with a net price effect of +PLN 32m, and management reiterated lower debt, continued dividend intent (to be detailed at the AGM) plus ongoing M&A and exploration upside (Catabela drilling, molybdenum +6% to ~1.8m lb at Sierra Gorda, Sierra Gorda H1 payable copper ~40,200 t, down ~5% y/y, silver 14.9 t +38% y/y).

KGHM Polska Miedz SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
KGHM exhibits strong revenue growth and solid profit margin recovery, along with a robust balance sheet featuring low leverage and healthy equity ratios. The weak free cash flow and below-peak profitability temper the financial outlook, making future cash conversion and margin expansion key improvement areas.
Income Statement
79
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue44.41B36.37B35.32B32.83B33.85B29.80B
Gross Profit11.16B6.24B5.97B2.66B6.31B6.27B
EBITDA13.98B7.97B6.87B-1.14B7.52B10.24B
Net Income8.69B3.69B2.87B-3.70B4.77B6.16B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets65.86B58.24B53.89B51.38B53.44B48.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.24B480.00M699.00M1.70B1.47B2.03B
Total Debt5.90B5.85B6.17B5.72B6.44B5.95B
Total Liabilities26.05B25.34B22.83B22.75B21.30B20.89B
Stockholders Equity39.74B32.83B30.99B28.57B32.09B27.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.31B-1.54B-1.24B1.12B-1.67B338.00M
Operating Cash Flow6.87B4.04B4.69B6.05B2.46B4.27B
Investing Cash Flow-4.78B-4.32B-5.51B-4.80B-2.69B-2.53B
Financing Cash Flow-1.36B-111.00M-217.00M-747.00M-446.00M-2.20B

KGHM Polska Miedz SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price364.35
Price Trends
50DMA
329.86
Positive
100DMA
331.91
Positive
200DMA
307.26
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
9.03
Negative
RSI
60.56
Neutral
STOCH
82.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KGH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 364.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 345.45, above the 50-day MA of 329.86, and above the 200-day MA of 307.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:KGH.

KGHM Polska Miedz SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
zł12.43B18.4030.49%4.18%6.04%23.34%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
zł72.87B8.3220.54%0.49%26.71%265.92%
49
Neutral
zł1.21B-19.790.60%2.59%-9.42%-217.46%
37
Underperform
zł1.49B-12.01-9.12%-1.01%-24.83%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PL:KGH
KGHM Polska Miedz SA
361.60
234.15
183.72%
PL:COG
Cognor Holding SA
6.42
-0.25
-3.75%
PL:KTY
Grupa KETY S.A.
1,241.00
356.22
40.26%
PL:STP
Stalprodukt S.A.
223.00
-24.00
-9.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2025