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KGHM Polska Miedz SA
(KGH)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
zł149.00
▼(-59.11% Downside)
Action:N/A
Date:09/16/25
The stock's outlook is anchored by resilient financial performance and attractive valuation, but is constrained by weak free cash flow and lack of technical support. The most significant risks stem from operational cash pressures and declining net profits, while international asset strength and improved margins partially offset these concerns. The absence of technical momentum and income appeal moderate the score further.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Decline
A significant decline in net profit due to exchange rate impacts can affect financial performance, limiting reinvestment capacity and dividend potential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a robust demand for KGHM's products, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Read all positive factors
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
zł72.87B
Dividend Yield0.41%
Average Volume (3M)860.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth26.71%
EPS Growth265.92%
CountryPL
Employees34,413
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)43.45
Shares Outstanding200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume893,222
30 Day Avg. Volume860,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio-36.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
zł342.50Price Target Upside-6.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)39.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)zł48.73B
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. operates in the mining, production, and international distribution of copper, precious metals, and various non-ferrous metals, catering to both Polish and global markets. The company's comprehensive product lineup includes c...
How the Company Makes Money
KGHM generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and silver, which are its core products. The company extracts copper from its mining operations and refines it into various forms, including cathodes and wire rods, which are sold to manu...
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially stronger financial results (revenues ~+40%, EBITDA ~+90%, tenfold net profit increase), improved margins (25% to 34%), solid operating cash flow and successful cost optimization progress, alongside accelerated project execution (CapEx, Line 4, shafts, smelter refurbishments). These positives were tempered by localized operational setbacks (Sierra Gorda copper -5%, KGHM International -34%, Robinson processing issues), temporary inventory build‑up tying cash, and market volatility/supply risks. On balance the positive financial and strategic developments outweigh the operational challenges, which management is addressing through repairs, exploration and optimization.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenues increased by almost 40% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, driven by higher metal prices and increased sales volumes.
Negative Updates
Sierra Gorda Copper Production Decline
Sierra Gorda payable copper production was down ~5% year‑on‑year in H1 2026; management attributed the decline to heavy rains in Chile earlier in the year impacting processing and throughput.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenues increased by almost 40% in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, driven by higher metal prices and increased sales volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided that KGHM delivered very strong H1 2026 results and will use the favorable market to build a financial base for growth while returning cash to shareholders: revenues were up ~40% y/y, EBITDA nearly +90% (operating margin rose from 25% to 34%) and net profit was about tenfold y/y, with paid copper production +20% y/y and silver +8% y/y; H1 operating cash flow exceeded PLN 2.5bn (free cash flow after investments ~PLN 774m) and inventory peaked at ~PLN 2.5bn (Q‑to‑Q change PLN +485m: ~PLN 135m volume / >PLN 350m price), while nearly 60,000 anodes are being processed; capex in H1 was PLN 1.439bn (including major smelter works such as Glogów II refurbishment, ~PLN 670m) and the cost‑optimization program targets PLN 1bn of savings by 2028 vs 2024 (c. PLN 300m saved so far); international cash flow was $290.3m (Sierra Gorda >$270m) with international assets contributing ~20% to adjusted EBITDA (~PLN 2.5bn), Robinson EBITDA >PLN 780m in H1, and Sierra Gorda Line 4 is budgeted at ~$725m CapEx to lift metal output ~20% (3‑year build, full operation H2 2030); energy costs were ~PLN 1.2bn in H1 with a net price effect of +PLN 32m, and management reiterated lower debt, continued dividend intent (to be detailed at the AGM) plus ongoing M&A and exploration upside (Catabela drilling, molybdenum +6% to ~1.8m lb at Sierra Gorda, Sierra Gorda H1 payable copper ~40,200 t, down ~5% y/y, silver 14.9 t +38% y/y).KGHM Polska Miedz SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
79
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 44.41B | 36.37B | 35.32B | 32.83B | 33.85B | 29.80B |
| Gross Profit | 11.16B | 6.24B | 5.97B | 2.66B | 6.31B | 6.27B |
| EBITDA | 13.98B | 7.97B | 6.87B | -1.14B | 7.52B | 10.24B |
| Net Income | 8.69B | 3.69B | 2.87B | -3.70B | 4.77B | 6.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 65.86B | 58.24B | 53.89B | 51.38B | 53.44B | 48.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 480.00M | 699.00M | 1.70B | 1.47B | 2.03B |
| Total Debt | 5.90B | 5.85B | 6.17B | 5.72B | 6.44B | 5.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.05B | 25.34B | 22.83B | 22.75B | 21.30B | 20.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.74B | 32.83B | 30.99B | 28.57B | 32.09B | 27.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | -1.54B | -1.24B | 1.12B | -1.67B | 338.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.87B | 4.04B | 4.69B | 6.05B | 2.46B | 4.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.78B | -4.32B | -5.51B | -4.80B | -2.69B | -2.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -111.00M | -217.00M | -747.00M | -446.00M | -2.20B |
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Technical Analysis
Positive
364.35
Price Trends
329.86
Positive
331.91
Positive
307.26
Positive
Market Momentum
9.03
Negative
60.56
Neutral
82.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KGH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 364.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 345.45, above the 50-day MA of 329.86, and above the 200-day MA of 307.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:KGH.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | zł12.43B | 18.40 | 30.49% | 4.18% | 6.04% | 23.34% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | zł72.87B | 8.32 | 20.54% | 0.49% | 26.71% | 265.92% | |
49 Neutral | zł1.21B | -19.79 | 0.60% | 2.59% | -9.42% | -217.46% | |
37 Underperform | zł1.49B | -12.01 | -9.12% | ― | -1.01% | -24.83% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
PL:KGH
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183.72%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.