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P3 Health Partners
(NASDAQ:PIII)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▼(-24.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—persistent losses and substantial negative operating/free cash flow despite improving revenue and a cleaner balance sheet versus 2025. Technicals add further pressure with bearish trend signals. These are partially offset by a more positive earnings narrative (raised EBITDA guidance and underlying profitability progress) and liquidity support from new financing, though the financing terms are costly and nonrecurring settlement benefits reduce confidence in headline profitability.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Funding Growth
Growing revenue alongside materially higher per-member funding supports the economics of P3’s value-based care model. The improvement suggests better reimbursement and contract performance, giving the company a stronger base for funding care coordination and improving results over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Deeply negative operating and free cash flow show that reported operational progress has not yet translated into self-funded growth. Continued cash consumption increases dependence on external financing and leaves less flexibility to absorb medical-cost volatility or invest in expansion without additional capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Funding Growth
Growing revenue alongside materially higher per-member funding supports the economics of P3’s value-based care model. The improvement suggests better reimbursement and contract performance, giving the company a stronger base for funding care coordination and improving results over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
P3 Health Partners (PIII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$51.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)19.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue Growth2.81%
EPS Growth26.63%
CountryUS
Employees320
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-32.95
Shares Outstanding3,911,962
10 Day Avg. Volume13,082
30 Day Avg. Volume19,024
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-0.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00782
P/FCF Ratio-0.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside95.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-12.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.55B
P3 Health Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
P3 Health Partners Inc., a patient-centered and physician-led population health management company, provides superior care services in the United States. The company operates clinics and wellness centers. P3 Health Partners Inc. was founded in 202...
How the Company Makes Money
P3 Health Partners makes money primarily through value-based care arrangements tied to Medicare Advantage populations. Under these models, P3 partners with physician groups and health plans and is compensated based on managing the total cost and q...
P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents clear operational progress: revenue growth, improved per-member funding (+15% YoY), positive underlying adjusted EBITDA (≈$9M Q2, ≈$18M H1), a lowered MA medical cost trend (‑1.8% vs. 2025) and upgraded full-year guidance to $80M–$110M. However, a sizable portion of reported profitability in H1 (≈$62M) came from favorable payer settlements and prior-period development, introducing nonrecurring support to headline results. Management emphasizes that the core business is now generating positive EBITDA and is executing on clinical, technology and contractual initiatives to sustain performance, but back-half seasonality, membership concentration and a modest cash balance are risks to monitor. Overall, the positives and momentum outweigh the cautions, though sustainability will depend on continued execution and fewer one-time contributions.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $54.4M in Q2 2026 (vs. a loss of $17M in Q2 2025). First half adjusted EBITDA of $80M (vs. a loss of $39M in H1 2025), demonstrating a meaningful turnaround in profitability.
Negative Updates
Significant Contribution from One-Time Payer Settlements
Approximately $45M of Q2 adjusted EBITDA (and $62M in H1) was attributable to favorable prior-period development and payer settlements. Q2 included a $41M payer settlement that reduced medical claims expense but did not affect revenue, highlighting material nonrecurring contributions to reported EBITDA.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $54.4M in Q2 2026 (vs. a loss of $17M in Q2 2025). First half adjusted EBITDA of $80M (vs. a loss of $39M in H1 2025), demonstrating a meaningful turnaround in profitability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $80–$110 million (midpoint $95M) after reporting Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $54.4M (including ~$45M of favorable prior‑period development and payer settlements — $41M of which reduced medical claims expense but did not affect revenue), bringing H1 adjusted EBITDA to $80M (underlying H1 adjusted EBITDA excluding $62M of settlements was ~ $18M and underlying Q2 adjusted EBITDA was ~ $9M); at‑risk membership was ~105k (down from 116k in Q2‑2025) with ~28k lives in management services (total lives ~133k), Q2 revenue was $386M (vs. $356M LY) with per‑member funding up ~15% YoY, Q2 medical claims expense was $269M, medical margin was $98M or $311 PMPM, adjusted operating expense was $32M, cash and equivalents were $21M, MA medical cost trend YTD was ~1.8% below the 2025 baseline, and management indicated reaching the guidance midpoint implies roughly $15M of additional EBITDA in the back half while noting seasonal second‑half medical expense pressure and a tightened guidance range.P3 Health Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
26
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.46B | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | 637.36M |
| Gross Profit | 475.57M | -144.32M | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | -30.70M |
| EBITDA | -82.31M | -181.86M | -197.76M | -81.07M | -1.46B | -184.61M |
| Net Income | -98.44M | -147.95M | -135.85M | -57.77M | -270.13M | -156.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 654.39M | 656.64M | 783.42M | 860.97M | 876.74M | 2.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.27M | 25.01M | 38.82M | 36.32M | 18.46M | 140.48M |
| Total Debt | 130.27M | 284.88M | 166.16M | 124.64M | 107.54M | 92.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 581.20M | 796.88M | 633.89M | 427.31M | 354.08M | 299.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | 72.19M | -155.23M | 75.94M | 142.13M | 5.85M | 273.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -130.40M | -91.24M | -110.13M | -77.86M | -128.25M | -69.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -130.52M | -91.24M | -110.13M | -76.03M | -126.02M | -66.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -172.00K | 129.00K | 14.53M | -1.83M | -7.73M | -56.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 113.56M | 72.81M | 98.77M | 100.33M | 11.38M | 223.47M |
P3 Health Partners Technical Analysis
Negative
9.22
Price Trends
9.53
Negative
9.99
Negative
6.44
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.76
Positive
26.35
Positive
4.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PIII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.13, below the 50-day MA of 9.53, and above the 200-day MA of 6.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.35 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PIII.
P3 Health Partners Risk Analysis
P3 Health Partners disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. P3 Health Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
P3 Health Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.23B | -429.47 | -1.05% | ― | 15.93% | 91.65% | |
62 Neutral | $1.42B | 43.51 | 9.51% | ― | 37.90% | 15.84% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.36B | -5.17 | -119.35% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 23.86% | |
47 Neutral | $51.19M | -0.21 | 160.54% | ― | 2.81% | 26.63% | |
46 Neutral | $34.08M | -0.19 | -115.58% | ― | -32.40% | -969.05% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PIII
P3 Health Partners
6.94
-2.67
-27.78%
PNTG
Pennant Group
40.90
15.72
62.43%
DCGO
DocGo
0.37
-1.02
-73.55%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
8.89
3.99
81.43%
AGL
Agilon Health
79.53
51.78
186.59%
P3 Health Partners Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
P3 Health Partners Announces New Preferred Equity Financing
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
On September 8, 2026, P3 Health Partners entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with affiliates of Chicago Pacific Founders to issue up to $70 million of units in multiple tranches, each comprising Series D-1 19.5% Cumulative Preferred Stock...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
P3 Health Partners Amends Promissory Note, Extends Maturity
Negative
Jul 6, 2026
On June 30, 2026, P3 Health Group, LLC entered into a Second Amendment to its Repurchase Promissory Note with IHC Health Services, Inc., modifying a financing arrangement originally established in 2019 and previously amended in 2020. The amendment...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.