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Modivcare Inc. (MODVQ)
:MODVQ
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ModivCare
(OTC:MODVQ)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$0.00
▼(-100.00% Downside)
ModivCare's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by negative cash flow and high leverage. Technical analysis further indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics highlight significant financial distress. These factors collectively suggest a high-risk investment with limited upside potential.
Positive Factors
Diversified Revenue Streams
The company's expansion into home and community-based services and telehealth solutions provides a broader revenue base, reducing reliance on a single income source and potentially enhancing long-term financial stability.
Partnerships with Healthcare Payers
Strong partnerships with healthcare payers and state agencies bolster ModivCare's market position, ensuring a steady demand for its services and contributing to sustained revenue growth.
Market Position in Healthcare Services
As a leading provider in the healthcare services sector, ModivCare's established market position supports its ability to capitalize on industry trends and maintain competitive advantages over time.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative stockholders' equity indicate financial instability, posing risks to long-term solvency and limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Cash Flow
Negative operating and free cash flows highlight liquidity challenges, which can hinder ModivCare's ability to sustain operations and meet financial obligations over the long term.
Declining Revenue and Profitability
Declining revenue and persistent net losses suggest operational inefficiencies and challenges in maintaining profitability, which could impact the company's long-term financial health and growth prospects.
ModivCare (MODVQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.71K
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)83.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.21
Revenue Growth-0.70%
EPS Growth-2.38%
CountryUS
Employees23,675
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding14,353,820
10 Day Avg. Volume39,856
30 Day Avg. Volume83,134
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)-4.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio-4.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.00
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.65B
ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state governments and managed care organizations to provide non-emergency medical transportation and related healthcare services. The company earns money by billing for the transportation services it coordinates, which are reimbursed by Medicaid or Medicare programs. Additionally, ModivCare has diversified its revenue streams by expanding into home and community-based services, where it provides personal care and support services to patients in their homes. The company also capitalizes on telehealth services, which have gained importance due to increasing demand for remote healthcare solutions. Significant partnerships with healthcare payers and state agencies enhance its service offerings and contribute to its financial growth.
ModivCare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strategic contract wins, digital transformation progress, and cost reduction initiatives being positive aspects. However, revenue decline, increased net loss, and negative free cash flow are significant challenges. While there are promising strategic initiatives underway, financial performance in the short term remains challenging.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Contract Wins
Secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts in the Southwest and Pacific regions with a combined annual contract value of approximately $52 million. Additionally, submitted four state contract renewals totaling over $246 million in annual contract value.
Digital Transformation Progress
Self-service call-to-trip ratio increased to 36.1% from 31% a year ago, with digital reservations supported by API integration and channel enhancements. Automated intake and trip adjudication reduced unit costs by 1.2% year-over-year.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Launched a company-wide G&A reduction initiative targeting approximately $25 million in annualized savings. Structural realignment and cost-saving measures implemented in late 2024 and early 2025 are expected to drive additional savings.
Improved Operational Efficiency
Implemented a full operating restructure in the NEMT segment, integrating trip operations under unified regional leadership, enhancing decision speed and financial accountability.
Monitoring Segment Growth
Increased Medicaid LTSS referrals by 45% year-over-year in Indiana and launched additional programs in new states. Operating under three active condition-based monitoring contracts.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the quarter was $650.7 million, down 5% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. Decline attributed to known NEMT contract attrition, lower billed hours in PCS, and membership churn in monitoring.
Increased Net Loss
Net loss for the quarter was $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million a year ago, primarily due to higher interest expenses, which rose to $38.8 million.
Contract Losses
Experienced the loss of a regional contract totaling $15 million in annual revenue due to a national plan's decision to consolidate vendors.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative at $86.2 million, largely due to working capital build from timing of accounts payable, contract transitions, and higher interest expense.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter 2025 financial results conference call, ModivCare Inc. outlined several key metrics and strategic objectives guiding its operations. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $650.7 million, representing a 5% year-over-year decline, primarily due to known contract attrition in the NEMT segment. The company secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts worth approximately $52 million annually, with projected in-year contributions of around $38 million. Despite a net loss of $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million the previous year, ModivCare focused on cost-saving measures, including a $25 million reduction in G&A expenses and improvements in capital efficiency. The self-service call-to-trip ratio for NEMT increased to 36.1%, and digital trip volumes surpassed 1 million transactions. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.6 million, reflecting a sequential decline but aligning with expectations. ModivCare emphasized its commitment to five strategic objectives, including digitizing its care access platform and increasing capital efficiency, while not providing formal guidance for 2025 but focusing on executing measurable initiatives.ModivCare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ModivCare is facing significant financial challenges, including negative profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's inability to generate positive cash flow and its reliance on debt financing raise concerns about its financial health and sustainability.Income Statement
ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.42
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.75B | 2.79B | 2.75B | 2.50B | 2.00B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 417.15M | 420.37M | 446.95M | 472.32M | 412.59M | 289.88M |
| EBITDA | 250.00K | 4.88M | -23.33M | 169.14M | 146.77M | 148.22M |
| Net Income | -229.35M | -201.28M | -204.46M | -31.81M | -6.58M | 88.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.65B | 1.77B | 1.94B | 2.03B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 115.96M | 112.58M | 2.22M | 14.45M | 133.14M | 183.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.40B | 1.30B | 1.14B | 1.02B | 1.02B | 517.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.76B | 1.69B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | -87.63M | -38.47M | 156.19M | 354.56M | 373.27M | 411.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -121.14M | -34.04M | -125.26M | -43.45M | 165.52M | 336.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -97.30M | -6.41M | -82.97M | -10.44M | 186.84M | 348.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.84M | -27.63M | -42.29M | -111.81M | -685.63M | -635.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 231.05M | 144.37M | 113.07M | 3.81M | 448.85M | 408.26M |
ModivCare Technical Analysis
Negative
0.10
Price Trends
0.32
Negative
1.70
Negative
2.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
40.64
Neutral
62.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODVQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.32, and below the 200-day MA of 2.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODVQ.
ModivCare Risk Analysis
ModivCare disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ModivCare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ModivCare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.07B | 24.02 | 8.58% | ― | 14.29% | 7.85% | |
73 Outperform | $1.89B | 18.21 | 10.65% | 2.05% | 25.19% | 13.44% | |
72 Outperform | $1.27B | 33.36 | 8.07% | ― | 6.26% | -19.33% | |
69 Neutral | $873.73M | 32.33 | 11.44% | ― | 30.58% | 24.86% | |
57 Neutral | $1.94B | 123.80 | ― | ― | 11.53% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
44 Neutral | $28.71K | ― | ― | ― | -0.70% | -2.38% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.