Provident Financial Services (PFS) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects full-year loan and deposit growth of 5%-6%, is pacing to achieve approximately 6% loan growth for the year, and projects 5%-6% loan growth for next year, while targeting a 97%-103% loan-to-deposit ratio. It is currently modeling one rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December of 2026 and expects core margin to expand 1-2 basis points in the fourth quarter; quarterly core operating expenses are projected at approximately $118 million to $120 million in the fourth quarter, with final core-conversion costs of approximately $1 million. Management expects non-interest income of approximately $29 million in the fourth quarter, a full-year effective tax rate of approximately 28%, core ROA of 1.2%-1.3%, and a mid-teens return on average tangible common equity. Purchase accounting for securities and loans is anticipated at between $60 million and $62 million for the next 12 months, or about $15 million a quarter, while core expenses are expected to finish the year right around $474 million in total and probably grow between 3.5% and 3.75% off of that into 2027; approximately $3.3 billion in loans are expected to reprice over the next 12 months, going from about 5.75% to, let's say, 6.5% or north of that, with about $350 million of securities repricing and a north of 100 basis points pickup on each one of those line items.