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Plains GP Holdings
(NASDAQ:PAGP)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
â–²(14.14% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:09/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow generation and an improving TTM profitability picture, tempered by historically high leverage and uncertainty around the sustainability of the recent balance-sheet improvement. Technicals add support with the price in an established uptrend, while valuation is favorable due to a low P/E and high dividend yield. Corporate events further strengthen the outlook via material debt reduction and enhanced liquidity.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Steady operating cash flow of about $2.0B–$2.9B and free cash flow of $1.7B–$2.5B, with TTM FCF growth of 16.3%, indicate the asset base is converting operations into substantial cash. That supports distributions, debt reduction, and reinvestment over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Historically High Leverage
Debt-to-equity of roughly 5x–8.5x across 2022–2025 shows that leverage has been a persistent structural constraint despite recent improvement. Elevated debt can reduce resilience during weaker volumes, restrict capital allocation, and leave less room to absorb operating or market stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Steady operating cash flow of about $2.0B–$2.9B and free cash flow of $1.7B–$2.5B, with TTM FCF growth of 16.3%, indicate the asset base is converting operations into substantial cash. That supports distributions, debt reduction, and reinvestment over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.25B
Dividend Yield5.85%
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth9.00%
EPS Growth307.04%
CountryUS
Employees3,900
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.80
Shares Outstanding197,904,130
10 Day Avg. Volume1,738,942
30 Day Avg. Volume1,725,668
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio1.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.50Price Target Upside-6.11% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$57.80B
Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream infrastructure systems in the United States and Canada. It operates through Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) segments. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
PAGP makes money primarily through its ownership interest in PAA, which generates cash flows from midstream operations and distributes cash to its owners (including PAGP). The underlying revenue model at PAA is largely fee-based: customers pay tar...
Plains GP Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive outlook driven by strong first-quarter results, an upwardly revised 2026 EBITDA guidance, significant expected NGL sale proceeds (~$3.3 billion) enabling meaningful deleveraging, solid free cash flow expectations (~$1.85 billion) and on‑track cost and synergy initiatives. Near‑term headwinds include one‑time weather and operational impacts (~$49 million), elevated pre‑sale leverage (4.1x), regulatory uncertainty around the Keyera transaction, natural gas takeaway constraints in the Permian that limit near‑term volume growth, and limited immediate benefit from higher commodity prices due to prior hedging. Overall, the positives (guidance raise, cash generation, deleveraging, cost savings and Cactus III benefits) outweigh the noted near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 EBITDA and Segment Performance
Reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains GP Holdings of $730 million; crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $582 million and NGL segment adjusted EBITDA of $145 million.
Negative Updates
Weather, Maintenance and MVC Timing Headwinds
One-off items in Q1 (winter weather impacts in the Permian, system maintenance, and timing of minimum volume commitments) produced a roughly $49 million negative impact; weather-related shut-ins are unrecoverable for the quarter, though some production flush may return later.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 EBITDA and Segment Performance
Reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains GP Holdings of $730 million; crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $582 million and NGL segment adjusted EBITDA of $145 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $130 million to a midpoint of $2.88 billion after reporting Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $730 million (crude segment $582 million; NGL $145 million), and now expects NGL EBITDA of $170 million (after a $45 million Q1 outperformance and an NGL divestiture targeted for May 2026). They left growth capital at $350 million, increased maintenance capital to $185 million (reflecting ownership of NGL assets into May), and reiterated pro forma Q1 leverage of 4.1x that would fall to ~3.5x post‑NGL sale and is expected to migrate toward the low end of the 3.25x–3.75x target range by year‑end. For 2026 they forecast roughly $1.85 billion of adjusted free cash flow (excluding working capital changes and NGL sale proceeds), anticipate net NGL sale proceeds of about $3.3 billion (≈$100 million above prior estimates) to be used to pay down just over $3 billion of debt (term loan, CP and a $750 million note), do not expect a special distribution due to Cactus III tax mitigation, and remain on track for $100 million of cost efficiencies ($50 million in 2026 and $50 million in 2027).Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 52.31B | 44.26B | 50.07B | 48.71B | 57.34B | 42.08B |
| Gross Profit | 2.66B | 2.67B | 3.49B | 3.13B | 3.20B | 2.80B |
| EBITDA | 2.65B | 2.81B | 2.68B | 3.05B | 2.78B | 1.91B |
| Net Income | 554.00M | 260.00M | 103.00M | 198.00M | 168.00M | 60.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.23B | 31.28B | 27.76B | 28.60B | 29.21B | 29.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 329.00M | 349.00M | 453.00M | 404.00M | 456.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.63B | 11.49B | 7.93B | 8.03B | 8.82B | 9.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.92B | 17.06B | 13.44B | 13.63B | 14.57B | 15.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.58B | 1.34B | 1.35B | 1.55B | 1.52B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.62B | 2.29B | 1.84B | 2.14B | 1.95B | 1.66B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.98B | 2.93B | 2.48B | 2.72B | 2.40B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 797.00M | -3.36B | -875.00M | -702.00M | -526.00M | 386.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.15B | 399.00M | -1.70B | -1.97B | -1.93B | -1.98B |
Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
27.16
Price Trends
25.77
Positive
24.67
Positive
22.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.74
Negative
63.58
Neutral
61.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.89, above the 50-day MA of 25.77, and above the 200-day MA of 22.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGP.
Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $60.50B | 12.80 | 33.42% | 7.22% | 4.79% | 10.20% | |
76 Outperform | $62.20B | 27.55 | 72.08% | 1.55% | -0.83% | 49.90% | |
75 Outperform | $84.09B | 13.52 | 21.21% | 5.66% | 7.38% | 7.45% | |
74 Outperform | $18.13B | 7.12 | 27.46% | 6.35% | 9.00% | 299.23% | |
73 Outperform | $21.25B | 9.96 | 39.97% | 5.85% | 9.00% | 307.04% | |
73 Outperform | $74.03B | 13.35 | 16.77% | 6.26% | 33.27% | 12.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings
27.89
10.81
63.29%
ET
Energy Transfer
21.50
5.55
34.75%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
38.94
9.38
31.75%
PAA
Plains All American
25.70
9.85
62.13%
TRGP
Targa Resources
290.05
132.91
84.58%
MPLX
MPLX
59.67
13.28
28.64%
Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Plains GP Highlights Q2 2026 Results and Debt Reduction
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Plains All American Pipeline and Plains GP Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 net income attributable to PAA of $1.83 billion, largely driven by a roughly $1.6 billion gain on the sale of the Canadian NGL business completed o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Plains GP Establishes New Credit Facility, Simplifies Financing
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., together with Plains Marketing, L.P. and Plains Canada Liquid Pipelines ULC, entered into a new senior unsecured revolving credit agreement providing $2.7 billion in committed borrowing capacit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.