Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] (OVLY) AI Stock Analysis

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Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca]

(NASDAQ:OVLY)

Select Model

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:$37.00▲(7.50% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/11/26

The bank's conservative, debt-free balance sheet and low valuation provide a strong foundation, but declining revenue, profitability, and cash flow trends are significant headwinds. Neutral technicals and a solid recent quarter with a widening margin offer some support, resulting in a slightly above-average score.

Positive Factors

Strong ProfitabilityHigh net and operating margins indicate that Oak Valley converts revenue into substantial earnings, providing internal capacity to support operations and growth. This profitability can help the bank absorb moderate cost pressure while preserving capital generation over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Cooling Revenue and Earnings GrowthThe recent decline in revenue and lower earnings versus the 2023 peak indicate that prior growth has moderated. If this normalization persists, slower operating expansion could limit earnings compounding and reduce the resources available for branch investment or balance-sheet growth.

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] (OVLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $289.57M
Dividend Yield: 2.18%
Average Volume (3M): 18.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
Beta (1Y): 0.51
Revenue Growth: 5.39%
EPS Growth: -1.97%
Country: US
Employees: 245
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oak Valley Bancorp, functioning as the parent entity for Oak Valley Community Bank, offers a comprehensive range of commercial banking services. These services are provided to both individual clients and small to mid-sized businesses, primarily opera...

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is mixed. A pristine, debt-free balance sheet and solid cash conversion are strengths, but revenue contraction, compressing margins, and declining return on equity and free cash flow indicate a clear negative trajectory that weighs on the overall score.

Income Statement

65Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	87.87M	81.73M	89.45M	87.30M	66.77M	55.23M
Gross Profit	82.93M	80.92M	78.21M	81.46M	67.00M	54.90M
EBITDA	33.79M	31.79M	33.29M	41.40M	30.84M	22.82M
Net Income	23.21M	23.91M	24.95M	30.85M	22.90M	16.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.98B	2.02B	1.90B	1.84B	1.97B	1.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	703.99M	412.95M	213.55M	698.15M	943.24M	998.22M
Total Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Liabilities	1.79B	1.82B	1.72B	1.68B	1.84B	1.82B
Stockholders Equity	191.10M	207.97M	183.44M	166.09M	126.63M	142.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.36M	24.56M	23.86M	31.16M	21.62M	10.21M
Operating Cash Flow	29.01M	28.67M	25.64M	33.06M	22.81M	11.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-77.51M	-57.20M	-114.70M	-79.50M	-376.18M	103.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.99M	91.97M	41.25M	-166.62M	4.74M	436.66M

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price34.42

Price Trends

50DMA34.23Positive

100DMA33.86Positive

200DMA33.34Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.14Negative

RSI52.89Neutral

STOCH40.52Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OVLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.27, above the 50-day MA of 34.23, and above the 200-day MA of 33.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OVLY.

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Risk Analysis

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.The failure to address the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner, downgrades of the U.S. credit rating and uncertain credit and financial market conditions may affect the stability of securities issued or guaranteed by the federal government, which may affect the valuation or liquidity of our investment securities portfolio and increase future borrowing costs.Q4, 2023

2.Climate change manifesting as physical or transition risks could adversely affect our operations, businesses and customers.Q4, 2023

3.Recent bank failures have created significant market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and decreased confidence in the U.S. banking system.Q3, 2023

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

OVLY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FUNC	82Outperform	$299.67M	11.96	12.11%	2.27%	5.24%	1.64%
NWFL	76Outperform	$392.84M	10.21	11.74%	3.56%	45.99%	372.22%
FVCB	69Neutral	$292.88M	10.84	10.27%	1.66%	4.48%	27.37%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OVLY	66Neutral	$291.08M	12.25	11.29%	2.18%	5.39%	-1.97%
WNEB	65Neutral	$268.11M	13.60	8.04%	2.06%	5.29%	52.20%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OVLY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
OVLY	Oak Valley Bancorp [ca]	34.42	6.86	24.89%
FUNC	First United	46.76	12.40	36.10%
NWFL	Norwood Financial	35.96	9.78	37.36%
WNEB	Western New England Bancorp	13.60	2.45	21.97%
FVCB	Fvcbankcorp	16.26	4.27	35.56%
FBLA	FB Bancorp, Inc.	16.80	4.63	38.04%

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Oak Valley Bancorp Reports Solid Third-Quarter 2026 Results

Positive

Oct 23, 2026

Oak Valley Bancorp reported unaudited third-quarter 2026 results showing consolidated net income of $6.45 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, up from $5.11 million in the prior quarter but slightly below the $6.69 million earned a year earlier. For...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] AI Stock Analysis