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Ontrak (OTRKQ) AI Stock Analysis
Ontrak
(Other OTC:OTRKQ)
Ontrak’s extremely low score is driven by critical financial distress—including deeply negative margins, persistent cash burn, escalating leverage, and a fundamental lack of earnings power—alongside a prolonged technical downtrend and no valuation or income support. There are no material technical or valuation positives to offset these risks; bankruptcy risk is high without a radical operational turnaround.
Ontrak (OTRKQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Not enough price history over this period.
- Market Cap
- $708
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- ―
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 0.0
- Beta (1Y)
- -101.09
- Revenue Growth
- ―
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 104
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Sector Strength
- 51
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Information Services
Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ontrak, Inc. is a virtualized healthcare company that leverages artificial intelligence and telehealth to deliver services, including in-person components, to health plans and other third-party payors across the United States. Its sophisticated, tech...
How the Company Makes Money
Ontrak generates revenue primarily through contracts with health plans and employers, where it provides its behavioral health intervention programs. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service structure, often incorporating performance-...
Ontrak Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant operational improvements and growth in membership contrasted by a notable decline in revenue and gross margin due to customer loss. While there are promising new business opportunities, the financial challenges remain a concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
During the Ontrak Health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided optimistic guidance regarding its future prospects. Ontrak anticipates doubling its run rate revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by successful conversions of new customer opportunities, notably with a large Midwestern Medicaid plan. The company reported a significant increase in enrolled members, reaching 3,165 by the end of Q1, which nearly doubled year-over-year. The quarter's revenue was $2 million, reflecting a 25% decrease from the previous year, attributed to the loss of a customer at the end of 2024. However, the company expects Q2 2025 revenues to range from $2.2 million to $2.6 million, representing an 8% to 22% sequential increase. Ontrak's strategic investments in AI-driven technology and expanded solution offerings, including the Engage program, have significantly improved productivity and market reach, with the potential to address critical gaps in the behavioral health care landscape. The company also highlighted its strong pipeline of prospective contracts that could bring an additional $15 million in revenue, potentially doubling its current customer-based revenue.
Ontrak Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ontrak displays severe financial weakness across all dimensions: shrinking revenue, extremely negative margins (net margin −274%), mounting net losses, deteriorating equity, and consistently negative cash flow. Its high debt-to-equity and deeply negative ROE signal acute financial distress and significant bankruptcy risk. The only minor positive is a still-positive gross margin, but this is negligible against the scale of ongoing losses.
Income Statement
19Very NegativeBalance Sheet
23NegativeCash Flow
14Very Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.85M | 10.85M | 12.74M | 14.51M | 84.13M | 82.84M |
| Gross Profit | 6.53M | 6.82M | 8.80M | 7.05M | 52.92M | 39.23M |
| EBITDA | -22.59M | -22.59M | -14.42M | -42.38M | -24.98M | -14.21M |
| Net Income | -25.49M | -25.49M | -27.92M | -51.57M | -37.14M | -22.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.07M | 21.07M | 19.85M | 25.76M | 93.68M | 144.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.71M | 5.71M | 9.70M | 5.03M | 58.82M | 86.91M |
| Total Debt | 8.50M | 8.50M | 1.69M | 11.26M | 37.45M | 48.73M |
| Total Liabilities | 11.21M | 11.21M | 5.58M | 20.08M | 48.13M | 83.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.87M | 9.87M | 14.27M | 5.68M | 45.55M | 60.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -13.61M | -13.61M | -15.78M | -25.12M | -30.64M | -8.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -13.44M | -13.44M | -15.50M | -23.97M | -26.16M | -6.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -177.00K | -177.00K | -285.00K | -1.16M | -4.48M | -4.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.62M | 9.62M | 15.77M | -31.11M | -6.63M | 100.11M |
Ontrak Risk Analysis
Ontrak disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ontrak reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskOntrak Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
BTSG72Outperform
HNGE69Neutral
OMDA67Neutral
EVH59Neutral
TDOC52Neutral- OTRKQ38Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTSG | 72Outperform | $13.24B | 40.79 | 16.75% | ― | 22.86% | 157.24% |
| HNGE | 69Neutral | $9.22B | 84.89 | 30.25% | ― | 49.76% | ― |
| OMDA | 67Neutral | $1.15B | 275.85 | 1.84% | ― | 47.63% | ― |
| EVH | 59Neutral | $486.16M | -0.96 | -99.16% | ― | -4.50% | -184.71% |
| TDOC | 52Neutral | $1.55B | -9.89 | -11.63% | ― | -2.38% | 32.73% |
| Sector * | 51Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
| OTRKQ | 38Underperform | $7 | 0.00 | -211.17% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTRKQ | Ontrak, Inc. | ― | ― | ― | |
| EVH | Evolent Health Inc. | 4.30 | -2.42 | -36.01% | |
| TDOC | Teladoc Inc. | 8.51 | 0.37 | 4.55% | |
| BTSG | BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. | 66.89 | 33.40 | 99.73% | |
| HNGE | Hinge Health, Inc. Class A | 114.32 | 63.98 | 127.10% | |
| OMDA | Omada Health, Inc. | 18.73 | -6.94 | -27.04% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025