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Oatly Group (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
OTLY Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- -$0.86
- Consensus EPS
- -$0.81
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -$0.05
- One Year Ago EPS
- -$2.15
OTLY Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- $241.90M
- Expected Revenue
- $241.75M
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +$154.90K
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +8.84%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/28/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Oatly Group's next earnings date is estimated for February 17, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call presented strong underlying operating momentum, including 9.1% revenue growth, positive adjusted EBITDA, substantial growth in Europe and International, North American market-share gains, continued distribution expansion, and a broad innovation pipeline. However, these positives were offset by a significant reduction in adjusted EBITDA guidance, sharply higher North American fuel and freight costs expected to persist into 2027, negative free cash flow, continued Greater China weakness, and the need for pricing actions. Overall, the positive operating trends and growth initiatives were balanced by material profitability, cash-flow, and macroeconomic challenges.
For full year 2026, Oatly maintained its outlook for constant currency revenue growth of 8% to 10% and full year CapEx in the range of €20 million to €30 million, with a bias to the middle of this range, while reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance from €25 million to €35 million to €16 million to €20 million; on a reported basis, assuming no change for the rest of the year, FX is expected to add approximately 200 to 250 basis points to net sales, free cash flow will not be positive for the full year 2026, and Q4 cash flow is expected to improve relative to Q3 and last year, while Q4 cost inflation in North America is estimated to be in the low double digit percent and US freight to customer per liter sold is expected to be 12.5% higher than the average of H1 2026; incremental pricing is planned in North America effective in the first quarter of 27, Europe pricing is under review, and the company currently projects 2027 to be the worst of 2026 going into 2027 for key cost of goods sold and logistic-like items.
- Solid Third-Quarter Revenue GrowthThird-quarter revenue grew 9.1%, or 8.9% in constant currency. Volume increased 4.2%, price mix increased 4.7%, and foreign exchange provided a 0.2% tailwind.
- Gross Margin ExpansionGross profit margin reached 34.1%, with management citing an improvement of 436 basis points versus last year. The gross margin bridge included 450 basis points from fixed-cost absorption and supply-chain efficiency and 120 basis points from net pricing and product-channel mix, partially offset by 110 basis points of inflation and 20 basis points of foreign-currency headwinds.
- Adjusted EBITDA Turned PositiveThird-quarter adjusted EBITDA was positive at €9.4 million, or 3.9% of net sales, improving by €6.3 million year over year. The increase was driven by a €16.6 million increase in gross profit, partially offset by a €10.3 million increase in SG&A.
- Europe and International Delivered Robust GrowthEurope and International constant-currency revenue grew 20.4%, including volume growth of nearly 18%, despite lapping volume growth of nearly 9% in the prior-year third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased by nearly €10 million year over year, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded approximately 370 basis points to 21.4%.
- Expansion Markets Reached Positive EBITDAOatly reported that its expansion markets, including France, Spain, Belgium, Mexico, the UAE, and Poland, were generating accretive revenue growth and were adjusted EBITDA positive, supported by established capacity and a rigorous go-to-market approach.
- North America Outperformed a Challenging CategoryNorth American retail takeaway declined mid single digits, while Oatly delivered volume-driven growth of 8%. North America constant-currency revenue grew 2.9%, including positive price mix, and adjusted EBITDA increased by €1.6 million to €0.3 million, with a positive 0.5% adjusted EBITDA margin.
- Market Share and Distribution Momentum in North AmericaOatly said it was nearing a market-leadership position, reducing the market-share gap to roughly 2 percentage points from nearly 8 percentage points in summer 2025. Distribution growth accelerated throughout the year, including approximately 800 basis points of growth in total distribution points, without diluting velocities.
- Out-of-Home Channel GrowthEurope and International out-of-home volume grew 25% year over year in the third quarter. In North America, out-of-home sales accelerated sequentially, and September was the second-strongest sales month of the year.
- Household Penetration and Younger Consumer RelevanceManagement reported continued growth in household penetration across markets and increasing relevance among Gen Z and Alpha consumers. Excluding China, third-quarter volume growth was 15% year over year, while year-to-date volume growth was almost 10%.
- Fiber Beverage Platform LaunchOatly launched its new fiber platform in Europe and plans to bring it to North America in January 2027. The range includes a low-calorie, no-sugar option and a low-sugar barista option; an approximate 250-milliliter serving provides 5 to 6 grams of fiber. The product is planned for 11 European markets by year-end and a new 48-ounce pack in the United States.
- Broader Innovation PipelineOatly is expanding its portfolio through Fiber, Flavor Baristas, including churros and popcorn, matcha, and Oatly Barista Cold Foam. Cold Foam is designed for hot and iced drinks, cold beverages, and cocktails, and management plans to develop it into a full global platform.
- Brand and Advertising Investment ContinuedBranding and advertising spending grew at a strong double-digit rate versus last year. Management said brand investments had demonstrated strong returns that were sustained despite the year's material cost inflation.
- Full-Year Revenue Outlook MaintainedOatly maintained its full-year 2026 constant-currency revenue-growth outlook of 8% to 10%. Based on recent foreign-exchange rates and assuming no change for the rest of the year, management estimates that foreign exchange will add approximately 200 to 250 basis points to reported net sales.
- Cost and Productivity Initiatives ContinueManagement said it will continue delivering cost-of-goods-sold and supply-chain improvements, pursue productivity in general and administrative overheads, attack remaining organizational inefficiencies, and maximize the impact of each investment.
- Business Remains Funded with Liquidity AvailableManagement said the business plan remains fully funded. Total available liquidity at the end of the third quarter was €95 million, including undrawn bank facilities, and management stated that it was comfortable operating with the cash held in the bank.
- Capital Expenditure Guidance UnchangedFull-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance remained unchanged at €20 million to €30 million, with a bias toward the middle of the range.
OTLY Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | -0.98- | -0.61 | ― | ― |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | -0.81-0.86 | -2.15 | 60.00% (+1.29) | |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | -1.05-0.99 | -0.09 | -1000.00% (-0.90) | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | -0.94-0.38 | -0.51 | 25.49% (+0.13) | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | -0.53-0.61 | -3 | 79.67% (+2.39) | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | -0.46-2.15 | -1.2 | -79.17% (-0.95) | |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | -0.53-0.09 | -1 | 91.00% (+0.91) | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | -0.81-0.51 | -1.6 | 68.13% (+1.09) | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | -1.37-3.00 | -10 | 70.00% (+7.00) | |
| Nov 07, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | -1.30-1.20 | -1.4 | 14.29% (+0.20) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
