Outset Medical (OM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $214.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 261.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.62
• Revenue Growth: 2.47%
• EPS Growth: 56.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 17,766,193
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 159,938
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 261,316
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.42
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▼(-25.95% Downside)

Outset Medical's stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges, coupled with bearish technical indicators. Valuation concerns further weigh on the score, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. Despite some positive elements from the earnings call, the overall outlook remains cautious.

Positive Factors

Innovative Product Offering

The Tablo Hemodialysis System's innovative design enhances treatment efficiency in various settings, potentially increasing market adoption and providing a competitive edge in the renal care industry.

Recurring Revenue Stream

The ongoing sale of consumables for the Tablo system ensures a steady revenue stream, supporting financial stability and long-term growth as the installed base of systems increases.

Improved Financial Stability

Reduced leverage and improved financial health enhance Outset Medical's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic fluctuations, strengthening its long-term financial position.

Negative Factors

Leadership Changes

Leadership changes, particularly in sales, can disrupt operations and impact sales execution, potentially delaying revenue growth and affecting strategic initiatives in the near to medium term.

Revenue Growth Challenges

Slower-than-expected revenue growth and revised guidance indicate challenges in scaling operations and capturing market share, which could hinder long-term growth prospects.

Negative Profitability

Persistent negative profitability highlights ongoing operational inefficiencies, which may require strategic adjustments to achieve sustainable margins and improve financial performance over time.

Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Outset Medical (OM) is a medical technology company focused on transforming the way dialysis is delivered to patients. The company operates within the healthcare sector, specifically targeting renal care, with a core product offering of the Tablo Hemodialysis System. This innovative system simplifies the dialysis process for both patients and healthcare providers, enabling efficient treatment in various settings, including in-home and clinic environments.

How the Company Makes Money

Outset Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Tablo Hemodialysis Systems, which are sold to hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare facilities. In addition to system sales, the company earns revenue from the consumables required for the Tablo system, such as dialysate and other necessary supplies. This creates a recurring revenue stream as facilities need to continuously purchase these consumables for ongoing patient treatments. The company may also engage in partnerships with healthcare providers and payers, enhancing its market reach and potentially securing additional funding or reimbursement arrangements that further support its revenue generation. Overall, Outset Medical's business model hinges on both the initial sale of its dialysis systems and the ongoing sale of related consumables, supplemented by strategic partnerships that bolster its market position.

Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Outset Medical shows modest revenue growth and improved financial stability with reduced leverage. However, significant challenges remain with negative profitability and cash flow issues, indicating a need for enhanced operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Outset Medical shows a modest revenue growth rate of 3.5% TTM, indicating some positive momentum. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins (-82.1% TTM) and EBIT margins (-67.5% TTM). The gross profit margin has improved to 36.5% TTM, but the persistent negative margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a significant improvement in financial stability, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 TTM, down from 7.53 in the previous year. This indicates reduced leverage and better financial health. However, the return on equity remains negative (-98.1% TTM), suggesting that the company is not yet generating positive returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -29.3% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -1.83 TTM, indicating cash flow issues. Despite a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.01 TTM, the overall cash flow position remains weak, reflecting the company's struggle to generate positive cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	119.30M	113.69M	130.38M	115.38M	102.60M	49.94M
Gross Profit	43.50M	38.56M	29.00M	17.83M	7.61M	-13.04M
EBITDA	-75.63M	-97.89M	-153.79M	-152.81M	-124.86M	-114.85M
Net Income	-97.90M	-127.98M	-172.80M	-162.96M	-131.94M	-120.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	288.80M	275.80M	313.80M	400.12M	463.46M	403.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.09M	158.69M	203.32M	287.50M	339.49M	314.87M
Total Debt	3.62M	201.86M	136.19M	103.23M	37.81M	38.60M
Total Liabilities	134.02M	248.98M	190.91M	154.13M	89.38M	75.22M
Stockholders Equity	154.78M	26.82M	122.89M	245.99M	374.08M	328.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.39M	-117.22M	-134.81M	-154.05M	-133.37M	-108.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-67.54M	-116.30M	-131.37M	-145.73M	-130.26M	-99.02M
Investing Cash Flow	14.79M	103.94M	83.03M	-66.30M	-142.51M	3.95M
Financing Cash Flow	54.45M	67.87M	43.65M	72.90M	160.15M	385.68M

Outset Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.57, above the 50-day MA of 13.94, and above the 200-day MA of 14.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OM.

Outset Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELMD	70 Outperform	$201.80M	28.52	17.18%	―	16.97%	48.56%
CVRX	55 Neutral	$254.50M	―	-91.88%	―	18.44%	25.42%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
INGN	48 Neutral	$189.77M	―	-13.27%	―	4.68%	55.37%
OM	43 Neutral	$214.01M	―	-87.65%	―	2.47%	56.93%
ARAY	42 Neutral	$132.61M	―	-36.07%	―	1.51%	5.07%
NNOX	40 Underperform	$194.47M	―	-32.87%	―	17.36%	9.38%

Outset Medical Corporate Events

Outset Medical’s Q3 2025 Earnings and Outlook

Outset Medical, Inc. is a medical technology company that is revolutionizing the dialysis experience with its innovative Tablo Hemodialysis System, which simplifies the process and reduces costs for healthcare facilities. In its latest earnings report for the third quarter of 2025, Outset Medical announced a 3% increase in net revenue to $29.4 million, driven by an 8% rise in Tablo console revenue. The company also reported a significant improvement in gross margin, which expanded to 39.4% from 34.3% in the previous year, and a notable reduction in operating expenses by nearly 20% compared to the same period last year. Despite these positive developments, Outset Medical revised its 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $115 million to $120 million, citing delays in closing several large opportunities that are now expected to materialize in the fourth quarter and early 2026. The company remains optimistic about its future prospects, with management highlighting the growing hospital demand for its technology and the ongoing commercial transformation efforts. Outset Medical continues to focus on enhancing its operational efficiency and profitability, aiming to use less than $50 million in cash for the year, a significant reduction from the previous year’s expenditure.