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Outset Medical
(NASDAQ:OM)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-17.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and ongoing cash burn despite clear improvements in revenue growth, gross margins, and a much stronger balance sheet. Earnings-call messaging was constructive (reiterated guidance, margin progress, and better cash control), but technicals remain bearish with the stock below major moving averages. Valuation is difficult to support with a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Contracted HCA refresh backlog
The HCA agreement provides contracted backlog and multi-year revenue visibility while validating Tablo’s refresh opportunity within a major healthcare customer. It can support console placements, future consumables usage, and broader adoption as the company pursues a larger installed-base refresh cycle.
Negative Factors
Persistent operating losses
The company remains substantially unprofitable despite revenue and margin improvements, showing that operating expenses still exceed the earnings generated by the current business scale. Continued losses leave execution dependent on further growth, cost discipline, and successful conversion of the margin improvement plan.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted HCA refresh backlog
The HCA agreement provides contracted backlog and multi-year revenue visibility while validating Tablo’s refresh opportunity within a major healthcare customer. It can support console placements, future consumables usage, and broader adoption as the company pursues a larger installed-base refresh cycle.
Read all positive factors
Outset Medical (OM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)132.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue Growth-1.26%
EPS Growth79.82%
CountryUS
Employees310
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.09
Shares Outstanding18,797,165
10 Day Avg. Volume145,766
30 Day Avg. Volume132,605
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-1.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.67Price Target Upside80.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$125.97M
Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Outset Medical, Inc. is a medical technology firm that specializes in developing hemodialysis systems. The company's primary product is the Tablo Hemodialysis System, a compact console designed to deliver dialysis treatment in various environments...
How the Company Makes Money
Outset Medical primarily makes money by selling (or placing) its Tablo Hemodialysis System and generating recurring revenue from ongoing usage of the installed base. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Capital equipment revenue from Tablo s...
Outset Medical Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrays a predominantly positive commercial and operational trajectory: modest year-over-year revenue growth with strong sequential momentum, meaningful gross margin expansion, a significant $40M refresh agreement with HCA that establishes backlog, a strengthened balance sheet with controlled cash burn, notable implementation and customer success achievements, and an encouraging pilot for next-gen Tablo expected to drive future refresh cycles. Offsetting this optimism are near-term softness in consumables (down 12%), a small decline in product and recurring revenue, continued non-GAAP operating losses, and inherent capital-sales timing variability. On balance, the company communicated improving fundamentals and clear strategic catalysts that outweigh current headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Sequential Strength
Total revenue of $31.6 million in Q2, up 1% year-over-year and up 14% sequentially, demonstrating quarter-over-quarter momentum.
Negative Updates
Consumable Revenue Decline
Consumable revenue was $12.4 million, down 12% year-over-year (management cited a tough prior-year comp, milder flu season, and prior-year ordering cadence), creating drag on recurring revenue growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Sequential Strength
Total revenue of $31.6 million in Q2, up 1% year-over-year and up 14% sequentially, demonstrating quarter-over-quarter momentum.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Outset reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $125–$130 million (growth of ~5–9% vs. 2025), with most of the upside expected in Q3 and Q4 and management saying this outlook already factors in the $40 million HCA refresh agreement (extends through 2028). Supporting Q2 results included revenue of $31.6M (+1% YoY, +14% sequentially), console revenue $9.5M (+6% YoY), product revenue $21.9M (−5% YoY), consumables $12.4M (−12% YoY), recurring revenue $22.1M (−2% YoY), non‑GAAP gross margin 42.2% (on track to a 50% company‑wide milestone), non‑GAAP operating expenses $25.8M, non‑GAAP operating loss $12.4M (improved 7% YoY), ending cash of $151M, and Q2 cash use of $9.5M with the company on track to use < $40M for the full year. Management highlighted refresh tailwinds (an estimated refresh cycle of ~3,000 consoles and up to $150M in console revenue opportunity over the next several years), the next‑gen Tablo launch, and a formalized customer‑success program as drivers of future console, consumable and margin growth.Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 117.80M | 119.48M | 113.69M | 130.38M | 115.38M | 102.60M |
| Gross Profit | 49.20M | 46.75M | 38.56M | 29.00M | 17.83M | 7.61M |
| EBITDA | -56.21M | -62.37M | -102.09M | -153.79M | -152.81M | -124.86M |
| Net Income | -74.29M | -81.65M | -127.98M | -172.80M | -162.96M | -131.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 242.38M | 264.50M | 275.80M | 313.80M | 400.12M | 463.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 147.19M | 168.95M | 158.69M | 203.32M | 287.50M | 339.49M |
| Total Debt | 104.45M | 101.25M | 201.86M | 136.19M | 103.23M | 37.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 146.05M | 137.54M | 248.98M | 190.91M | 154.13M | 89.38M |
| Stockholders Equity | 96.34M | 126.95M | 26.82M | 122.89M | 245.99M | 374.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -38.88M | -47.13M | -117.22M | -134.81M | -154.05M | -133.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -38.32M | -46.33M | -116.30M | -131.37M | -145.73M | -130.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 33.62M | -97.68M | 103.94M | 83.03M | -66.30M | -142.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 644.00K | 55.50M | 67.87M | 43.65M | 72.90M | 160.15M |
Outset Medical Technical Analysis
Negative
4.25
Price Trends
4.00
Negative
4.22
Negative
4.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
29.06
Positive
25.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.29, above the 50-day MA of 4.00, and above the 200-day MA of 4.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.06 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OM.
Outset Medical Risk Analysis
Outset Medical disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Outset Medical reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Outset Medical Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $233.25M | 20.56 | 23.38% | ― | 15.28% | 53.24% | |
54 Neutral | $142.25M | -6.04 | -13.17% | ― | 3.15% | 14.61% | |
52 Neutral | $57.27M | -0.72 | -62.25% | ― | -1.26% | 79.82% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $25.69M | -0.76 | -99.04% | ― | -12.34% | -2363.03% | |
45 Neutral | $71.93M | -1.31 | -152.35% | ― | 11.96% | 6.12% | |
44 Neutral | $50.31M | -0.37 | -94.35% | ― | 31.52% | -89.07% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
OM
Outset Medical
2.96
-11.16
-79.04%
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Outset Medical Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Outset Medical Announces Departure of General Counsel Brottem
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Outset Medical, Inc. announced that its General Counsel, John Brottem, has decided to depart the company, with his exit effective September 11, 2026, as he pursues other professional opportunities. The company emphasized that B...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.