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Air New Zealand
(AIR)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.38
▼(-7.32% Downside)
Action:N/A
Date:10/05/26
The score is held down primarily by weaker financial performance (return to FY26 losses, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow) and a cautious earnings outlook (no FY27 earnings guidance amid fuel and cost volatility). Technicals also remain soft with the stock trading below longer-term averages, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no stated dividend support.
Positive Factors
Improving operational reliability
Improved punctuality and fewer controllable cancellations strengthen customer trust and service quality, supporting repeat travel and premium demand. Sustained reliability can also improve asset utilisation, reduce disruption-related costs, and reinforce Air New Zealand’s competitive position over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Return to loss and weaker margins
The swing from multi-year profitability to a substantial loss demonstrates that earnings remain vulnerable despite relatively stable revenue. Negative operating profit and weaker margins reduce internal funding capacity, limit resilience during further disruption, and make near-term earnings quality less dependable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving operational reliability
Improved punctuality and fewer controllable cancellations strengthen customer trust and service quality, supporting repeat travel and premium demand. Sustained reliability can also improve asset utilisation, reduce disruption-related costs, and reinforce Air New Zealand’s competitive position over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Air New Zealand (AIR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.26B
Dividend Yield3.25%
Average Volume (3M)1.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth3.86%
EPS Growth-299.47%
CountryNZ
Employees11,675
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding3,233,562,000
10 Day Avg. Volume977,851
30 Day Avg. Volume1,617,934
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)0.20
P/FCF Ratio-4.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.23B
Air New Zealand Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Air New Zealand Limited, founded in 1940 and headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand, primarily conducts scheduled passenger and cargo air transport operations. Its comprehensive service network covers New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, t...
How the Company Makes Money
Air New Zealand makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Passenger revenue: Ticket sales from scheduled flights across its domestic and international network, typically monetize...
Air New Zealand Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a mixed outlook: strong and visible operational progress (on-time performance, fleet returns, loyalty growth, digital and transformation gains) alongside significant financial stress from elevated fuel prices, engine-related costs, higher maintenance and aviation system inflation that drove a FY26 loss and higher leverage. Management has identified cost savings and transformation benefits and expects some transitory costs to unwind, but near-term profitability remains uncertain due to fuel and aviation cost risks.Positive Updates
Operational Reliability and Punctuality Improvement
On-time performance increased to 84% in H2 2026 (from 77.5% in 2025), placing the airline in the global top decile. Controllable cancellations fell from 2.2% to 1.3% and customer satisfaction rose from 83.6% to 84.5%.
Negative Updates
Large Loss Before Tax
Reported a loss before tax of NZD 336 million in FY26 versus earnings before tax of NZD 164 million in the prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Reliability and Punctuality Improvement
On-time performance increased to 84% in H2 2026 (from 77.5% in 2025), placing the airline in the global top decile. Controllable cancellations fell from 2.2% to 1.3% and customer satisfaction rose from 83.6% to 84.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Air New Zealand did not give FY27 earnings guidance because of jet‑fuel volatility (currently ~USD140–150/bbl), but provided a clear operating and risk profile: group capacity is planned to grow 2–4% (first half skewed lower), domestic broadly flat, Tasman & Pacific +3–5% and long‑haul +2–4% (2026 capacity was ~10% below pre‑COVID); as of 14 Aug ~80% of H1 ’27 fuel volumes and ~38% of H2 were hedged (≈60% for the full year) with a ~20% H1 crack‑spread overlay, and at an assumed jet price of USD130/bbl FY27 fuel would be ~NZD2.1bn. Management expects a residual engine‑availability hit of $70–90m in 2027, maintenance to be $50–100m lower than 2026, incremental depreciation of $110–130m, ~NZD200m of remaining cabin investment over two years, and has identified $135m of additional annualised savings for 2027 after delivering $94m of transformation benefits in 2026. Balance‑sheet metrics: liquidity $1.6bn, net debt ~NZD1.9bn (net‑debt/EBITDA 3.8x), no final dividend, and the focus remains returning to profitability to restore leverage toward the 1.5–2.5x target.Air New Zealand Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.02B | 6.75B | 6.75B | 6.23B | 2.73B |
| Gross Profit | 572.00M | 5.27B | 1.02B | 1.17B | 2.17B |
| EBITDA | 518.00M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 1.40B | -107.00M |
| Net Income | -242.00M | 126.00M | 146.00M | 412.00M | -591.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.10B | 8.73B | 8.55B | 9.20B | 8.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 989.00M | 1.44B | 1.28B | 2.23B | 1.79B |
| Total Debt | 3.19B | 2.84B | 2.82B | 3.33B | 3.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.41B | 6.79B | 6.54B | 7.12B | 6.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.68B | 1.95B | 2.01B | 2.08B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -338.00M | 160.00M | 19.00M | 1.27B | 549.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 819.00M | 940.00M | 810.00M | 1.87B | 582.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.01B | -119.00M | -822.00M | -932.00M | -33.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -253.00M | -664.00M | -936.00M | -503.00M | 1.31B |
Air New Zealand Technical Analysis
Negative
0.41
Price Trends
0.40
Negative
0.42
Negative
0.47
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
46.53
Neutral
40.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:AIR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.39, above the 50-day MA of 0.40, and below the 200-day MA of 0.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NZ:AIR.
Air New Zealand Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $5.46B | 35.17 | 6.78% | 3.00% | 4.13% | -10.00% | |
65 Neutral | $6.55B | 25.80 | 12.02% | 3.11% | 2.81% | -8.51% | |
64 Neutral | $2.19B | 23.35 | 17.19% | 4.34% | 13.50% | 17.16% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $14.28B | 43.15 | 3.12% | 3.61% | 4.64% | -24.03% | |
45 Neutral | $1.26B | -5.21 | -13.80% | 3.25% | 3.86% | -299.47% | |
44 Neutral | $22.97M | 47.63 | 6.10% | 6.80% | 1.52% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
NZ:AIR
Air New Zealand
0.39
-0.21
-35.00%
NZ:AIA
Auckland International Airport
8.31
0.55
7.06%
NZ:FRW
Freightways
12.30
-0.82
-6.26%
NZ:MFT
Mainfreight
65.00
5.27
8.83%
NZ:POT
Port of Tauranga
8.00
0.21
2.72%
NZ:MOV
Move Logistics Group Limited
0.18
-0.03
-13.81%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.