Nvidia AI Stock Analysis
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Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis
Nvidia
(NASDAQ:NVDA)
NVDA scores strongly on fundamentals due to exceptional profitability and cash generation with moderate leverage, supported by a positive earnings outlook and demand commentary. The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and near-term operational headwinds highlighted on the call (margin pressure from memory costs and rising OpEx), with additional uncertainty from the CEO transition.
Nvidia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by GeographySplits sales across regions (U.S., China, EMEA, APAC) to show where Nvidia earns its money and how exposed it is to regional demand swings, currency moves, or trade and regulatory risks.
Revenue has become heavily concentrated in the United States and Taiwan as datacenter/AI GPU demand drives outsized, lumpy quarters reflecting big enterprise and channel shipments rather than steady consumer sales. China shows pronounced volatility—recovering episodically but inconsistent, highlighting geopolitical/export-control exposure. The sudden rise and later disappearance of Singapore and a one‑quarter negative 'Other' point to channel reclassification and one‑offs; focus for investors should be order timing and geographic concentration risk, not steady underlying growth.
The FlyNvidia (NVDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $4.01T
- Dividend Yield
- 0.32%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 144.88M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 20.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.80
- Revenue Growth
- 83.38%
- EPS Growth
- 124.42%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 42,000
- Sector
- Technology
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Semiconductors
Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, ce...
How the Company Makes Money
NVIDIA primarily makes money by selling GPU-based computing products and related software and services. A major revenue stream comes from its Data Center business, where it sells GPUs and platform components used for AI and high-performance computing...
Nvidia Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive on demand, product ramps and strategic partnerships — record revenue ($96B), robust data center growth (+18% Q/Q), major customer commitments (AWS, OpenAI) and rapid Vera Rubin production. At the same time, significant near-term operational headwinds persist: supply constraints limiting fulfilled demand, sharp memory price inflation pressuring gross margins (guidance down to mid-low 70%s), rising operating expenses, and sizable capital commitments to AI labs that increase balance-sheet exposure. Overall the company emphasized strong secular tailwinds and execution confidence while acknowledging margin and supply bottlenecks in the near term.
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
NVIDIA guided third-quarter fiscal‑2027 revenue of $108 billion ±2% and said Vera Rubin will account for about 20% of data‑center sales in Q3, while forecasting fiscal‑2028 revenue growth of approximately 70% year‑over‑year (supply‑constrained). They expect Q3 GAAP and non‑GAAP gross margins of 74% ±50 basis points, with margins bottoming in Q4 at 71–72% and settling at 72–73% in fiscal‑2028 as price increases take effect; Q3 operating expenses are expected to be about $9.2 billion (GAAP) and $9.0 billion (non‑GAAP) and full‑year OpEx to grow in the low‑50s percent. Other guidance/metrics included a fiscal‑2027 effective tax rate of 16–18%, inventory of $32 billion, days sales outstanding of 60, and the company noted Q2 return of $26 billion to shareholders ($20 billion repurchases, $6 billion dividend of $0.25/share) and that memory cost inflation is pressuring margins.
Nvidia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements are elite overall: exceptionally high profitability (roughly 75% gross margin and ~64% net margin), massive scale-up in revenue since FY2023, and very strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$134B; free cash flow ~$127B with ~95% conversion vs. net income). Key offsets are clear growth deceleration in the latest TTM period and slower free cash flow growth, plus a notable step-up in total debt versus recent annual levels (though leverage remains moderate).
Income Statement
98Very PositiveBalance Sheet
92Very PositiveCash Flow
90Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 302.97B | 215.94B | 130.50B | 60.92B | 26.97B | 26.91B |
| Gross Profit | 226.24B | 153.46B | 97.86B | 44.30B | 15.36B | 17.48B |
| EBITDA | 233.89B | 144.55B | 86.14B | 35.58B | 5.99B | 11.35B |
| Net Income | 192.88B | 120.07B | 72.88B | 29.76B | 4.37B | 9.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 320.27B | 206.80B | 111.60B | 65.73B | 41.18B | 44.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 99.37B | 62.56B | 43.21B | 25.98B | 13.30B | 21.21B |
| Total Debt | 38.86B | 11.41B | 10.27B | 11.06B | 12.03B | 11.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 91.29B | 49.51B | 32.27B | 22.75B | 19.08B | 17.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 228.98B | 157.29B | 79.33B | 42.98B | 22.10B | 26.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 127.01B | 96.68B | 60.85B | 27.02B | 3.81B | 8.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 134.36B | 102.72B | 64.09B | 28.09B | 5.64B | 9.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.01B | -52.23B | -20.42B | -10.57B | 7.38B | -9.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -48.55B | -48.47B | -42.36B | -13.63B | -11.62B | 1.86B |
Nvidia Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.25, below the 50-day MA of 215.94, and below the 200-day MA of 204.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.99 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVDA.
Nvidia Risk Analysis
Nvidia disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksNvidia Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- NVDA77Outperform
AVGO76Outperform
AMD71Outperform
MRVL68Neutral
ARM65Neutral
INTC55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 77Outperform | $4.01T | 20.48 | 110.11% | 0.32% | 83.38% | 124.42% |
| AVGO | 76Outperform | $1.74T | 43.05 | 43.91% | 0.75% | 48.69% | 99.97% |
| AMD | 71Outperform | $959.94B | 114.61 | 11.58% | ― | 41.87% | 129.15% |
| MRVL | 68Neutral | $144.21B | 51.41 | 16.22% | 0.15% | 30.62% | ― |
| ARM | 65Neutral | $212.58B | 219.00 | 11.08% | ― | 23.84% | 11.87% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
| INTC | 55Neutral | $325.28B | -25.07 | -11.24% | ― | 12.08% | -17126.43% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 162.85 | -23.30 | -12.52% | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 534.06 | 293.54 | 122.04% | |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | 347.01 | 6.89 | 2.03% | |
| INTC | Intel | 59.66 | 24.95 | 71.88% | |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Group | 156.76 | 73.45 | 88.17% | |
| ARM | ARM Holdings PLC ADR | 190.53 | 50.27 | 35.84% |
Nvidia Corporate Events
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Resigns, Interim Leadership Appointed
NegativeOn November 11, 2026, NVIDIA’s board accepted Jensen Huang’s resignation as president, chief executive officer and director, effective immediately, and appointed CFO Colette Kress interim CEO while retaining her finance role. The board also initiated...
Nvidia to Acquire Open-Source AI Platform Hugging Face
PositiveOn September 2, 2026, Nvidia agreed to acquire open-source AI platform provider Hugging Face, Inc. in a deal valued at about $11.9 billion, alongside an equity-based retention package of up to $1.0 billion for employees who join Nvidia. The transacti...
NVIDIA Commits to Major AI Infrastructure Partnership in Ohio
PositiveOn August 17, 2026, NVIDIA announced a multi-year partnership with SB Energy to secure land, power and shell capacity at the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio, where it will be the exclusive AI compute infrastructure provider. Under 2...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 12, 2026