Want to see ASML full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
ASML Holding
(NASDAQ:ASML)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$1,898.00
▲(8.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/15/26
ASML scores strongly overall on exceptional financial performance (high margins, strong cash conversion, low leverage) and a very positive earnings outlook with raised/robust guidance and improving visibility. The score is held back by weak near-term technicals (price below key moving averages, subdued momentum) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Accelerating Revenue Growth
The raised full-year outlook indicates strong demand for ASML’s most advanced systems, especially EUV, and supports sustained revenue expansion over the next several quarters. Growth is also broadening across memory, logic, non-EUV systems, and installed-base services.
Negative Factors
Semiconductor Capital-Spending Cyclicality
Although current cash generation is excellent, prior volatility shows that customer payment timing and fab investment cycles can produce uneven results. A softer semiconductor capital-spending environment could therefore reduce revenue visibility and temporarily pressure cash conversion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating Revenue Growth
The raised full-year outlook indicates strong demand for ASML’s most advanced systems, especially EUV, and supports sustained revenue expansion over the next several quarters. Growth is also broadening across memory, logic, non-EUV systems, and installed-base services.
Read all positive factors
ASML Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Lithography Systems Sold
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Indicates the number of lithography machines sold, reflecting demand for ASML's cutting-edge technology and its market leadership in semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyASML Holding (ASML) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$633.67B
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.2
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth28.99%
EPS Growth52.09%
CountryUS
Employees44,209
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)35.04
Shares Outstanding388,147,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,685,416
30 Day Avg. Volume1,428,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)18.04
Price to Sales (P/S)10.83
P/FCF Ratio31.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda40.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,289.07Price Target Upside31.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)45.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$49.47B
ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also pr...
How the Company Makes Money
ASML primarily makes money by selling lithography systems and by providing services and upgrades over the installed base of those systems.
1) System sales (capital equipment revenue)
- EUV lithography systems: A major revenue driver comes from se...
ASML Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 14, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, supported by record third-quarter revenue and gross margin, robust AI-driven demand, improving visibility through 2030, substantial EUV and memory growth, and continued progress in High-NA EUV and productivity products. The main challenges were the need to expand capacity beyond current plans, ramp-related costs that reduce near-term gross margin, and the execution requirements across ASML's supply chain and customer construction programs.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Revenue and Gross Margin
Third-quarter 2026 total net sales reached a record €11.7 billion, toward the high end of guidance, reflecting strong execution of the capacity ramp. Gross margin was 57.5%, above guidance, primarily due to very high-margin components within the installed base management business.
Negative Updates
Fourth-Quarter Gross Margin Moderation
Fourth-quarter gross margin is guided at around 57%, below the third-quarter level of 57.5%. Management attributed the sequential reduction primarily to ramp costs associated with increasing capacity, which partly offset the fixed-cost coverage benefit from higher volume.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Revenue and Gross Margin
Third-quarter 2026 total net sales reached a record €11.7 billion, toward the high end of guidance, reflecting strong execution of the capacity ramp. Gross margin was 57.5%, above guidance, primarily due to very high-margin components within the installed base management business.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ASML expects Q4 total net sales to be between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion, with a gross margin of around 57%, installed base management sales of around €3.7 billion, R&D expenses around €1.2 billion and SG&A around €400 million; for full year 2026, it expects total net sales between €44 billion and €45 billion, gross margin around 56%, an anticipated year over year total net sales increase of around 36%, over 45% growth in EUV, around 20% growth in non-EUV-related system sales, around 50% growth in installed base management sales, logic net system sales growth around 10%, memory net system sales growth around 75%, and the China region to account for around 20% of total net sales. ASML anticipates output of roughly 65 low NA EUV systems for 2026, nearly 50% more than the 44 systems shipped last year, expects a similar quantity of DUV immersion systems in 2026 as in 2025, plans to increase 2027 capacity by 30% for both low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems, is looking into expanding 2028 capacity even above the 30% year on year growth target under investigation, plans to introduce the NXE:3.8 thousandF in small quantities at the beginning of 2027 at 260 wafers per hour versus 32 wafers per hour for the NXE:3.8 thousandE, and plans to introduce next-generation critical deep UV immersion running at 330 wafers per hour. Value-based pricing will have some impact in 2027, with the full impact starting from 2028 onwards; Samsung and TSMC plan to introduce High-NA EUV into high volume manufacturing in 2028 and 2030, respectively, while the 12 inch mask pilot line is targeted for 2031 and production for 2033.ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
93
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
95
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.47B | 32.67B | 28.26B | 27.56B | 21.17B | 18.61B |
| Gross Profit | 21.45B | 17.26B | 14.08B | 13.84B | 10.47B | 9.65B |
| EBITDA | 16.40B | 12.43B | 10.11B | 10.02B | 7.10B | 7.23B |
| Net Income | 13.47B | 9.61B | 7.57B | 7.84B | 5.62B | 5.88B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.98B | 50.57B | 48.59B | 39.96B | 36.30B | 30.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.74B | 13.32B | 12.74B | 7.01B | 7.38B | 7.59B |
| Total Debt | 1.96B | 4.39B | 4.69B | 4.63B | 4.26B | 4.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.92B | 30.95B | 30.11B | 26.51B | 27.49B | 20.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.06B | 19.61B | 18.48B | 13.45B | 8.81B | 10.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.14B | 11.08B | 9.08B | 3.25B | 7.22B | 9.91B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.73B | 12.66B | 11.17B | 5.44B | 8.49B | 10.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.11B | -3.78B | -2.61B | -2.69B | -1.03B | -72.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.72B | -8.67B | -2.83B | -3.00B | -7.14B | -9.89B |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
1744.16
Price Trends
1737.75
Negative
1748.36
Negative
1577.73
Positive
Market Momentum
-17.07
Positive
38.56
Neutral
20.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1744.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1758.27, above the 50-day MA of 1737.75, and above the 200-day MA of 1577.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -17.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.
ASML Holding Risk Analysis
ASML Holding disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ASML Holding reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ASML Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $633.67B | 42.18 | 63.91% | 0.55% | 28.99% | 52.09% | |
79 Outperform | $10.83B | 82.35 | 6.50% | ― | 8.08% | -33.87% | |
71 Outperform | $324.81B | 35.07 | 40.44% | 0.48% | 7.77% | 38.45% | |
69 Neutral | $216.29B | 44.99 | 85.38% | 0.51% | 11.72% | 20.58% | |
66 Neutral | $330.30B | 45.59 | 66.97% | 0.42% | 26.02% | 38.85% | |
65 Neutral | $2.61B | 111.59 | 2.62% | ― | -2.52% | -64.30% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
ASML
ASML Holding
1,647.12
610.78
58.94%
AMAT
Applied Materials
413.11
186.24
82.09%
KLAC
KLA
166.40
51.73
45.11%
LRCX
Lam Research
272.20
128.81
89.84%
ONTO
Onto Innovation
226.28
90.61
66.79%
VECO
Veeco
43.65
14.12
47.82%
ASML Holding Corporate Events
ASML Posts Record Q3 2026 Results and Signals Capacity Strain Amid Surging AI Demand
Oct 14, 2026
On October 14, 2026, ASML reported record third-quarter 2026 net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5%, driven in part by strong Installed Base Management sales and robust demand for new an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.