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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(24.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
Overall score reflects weak financial fundamentals (declining TTM revenue, negative equity, and ongoing cash burn) as the primary constraint, partially offset by a constructive technical setup (price above key long-term moving averages with positive MACD) and a notably optimistic earnings call with improved 2026 guidance and partnership-driven catalysts. Valuation remains challenged due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Matrix-M platform partnerships
Broad adoption by major pharmaceutical companies supports Matrix-M’s strategic relevance beyond Novavax’s current COVID-19 product. Rights covering more than 30 infectious-disease and oncology experimentation areas create potential for diversified long-term partner activity.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings volatility
The sharp swing from strong 2025 profitability to TTM losses shows that earnings depend heavily on uneven milestones, product demand, and timing of partner activity. Such volatility makes forward cash generation less predictable and raises execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Matrix-M platform partnerships
Broad adoption by major pharmaceutical companies supports Matrix-M’s strategic relevance beyond Novavax’s current COVID-19 product. Rights covering more than 30 infectious-disease and oncology experimentation areas create potential for diversified long-term partner activity.
Read all positive factors
Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth-61.64%
EPS Growth-158.19%
CountryUS
Employees749
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.52
Shares Outstanding164,945,720
10 Day Avg. Volume8,900,714
30 Day Avg. Volume7,699,918
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-8.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-4.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.75Price Target Upside16.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$383.71M
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology firm dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing vaccines aimed at preventing serious infectious diseases and addressing critical health needs. The company's diverse pipeline includes NVX-CoV2373, a c...
How the Company Makes Money
Novavax primarily makes money through vaccine-related revenue, with its business model historically centered on (1) product sales and distribution of its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine in markets where it obtained authorization and had supply arra...
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic, emphasizing expanding Matrix-M partnerships, Sanofi commercial and combination-vaccine progress, encouraging oncology and C. difficile development, substantial cost reductions, improved 2026 guidance, and long-term profitability and cash-runway objectives. Negative items included the year-over-year revenue decline caused by a large prior-year milestone, a $53 million quarterly net loss, dependence on fourth-quarter COVID-19 revenue, potential future asset write-offs, and uncertainty around partner timelines and early-stage programs. The stated achievements and forward-looking catalysts significantly outweighed the challenges.Positive Updates
Expanded Matrix-M Partner Network
Four of the top 10 global pharmaceutical companies now have licensing or material transfer agreements for Matrix-M. Licensed partners and MTA holders collectively have rights to over 30 areas of experimentation across infectious disease and oncology.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline Versus Prior Year
Second-quarter total revenue was $57 million versus $239 million in the prior-year quarter. The comparison was affected by a $202 million benefit in the second quarter of 2025 from a BLA approval milestone payment and a Takeda amendment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Expanded Matrix-M Partner Network
Four of the top 10 global pharmaceutical companies now have licensing or material transfer agreements for Matrix-M. Licensed partners and MTA holders collectively have rights to over 30 areas of experimentation across infectious disease and oncology.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Novavax expects adjusted total revenues of between $235 million and $275 million, with a midpoint of $255 million, including a $5 million increase to adjusted supply sales, a $10 million increase to other partner-related revenues, and a $10 million reduction to partner R&D reimbursements; the majority of remaining revenue is expected in the fourth quarter. Full-year 2026 combined GAAP R&D and SG&A expense guidance is $390 million at midpoint, while non-GAAP and net of partner reimbursements is expected to be $325 million at midpoint. Looking forward to 2028, Novavax expects to reduce non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses by over $200 million, reflecting a 50% decrease when compared to 2025, achieve combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense of $150 million-$200 million, reach non-GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028, and operate with less than half the head count as compared to the first quarter of 2026; it is also exploring an over 50% reduction to its operating footprint, which could result in a non-cash fixed asset write-off of up to $35 million in 2027, in addition to existing expense guidance. The company expects to pay off pandemic-era APA liabilities by the first quarter of 2029 and maintain at least two years' cash runway, with the $75 million Sanofi manufacturing tech transfer milestone expected by mid-2027 extending current cash runway from 2028 into 2029.Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 413.80M | 1.12B | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 197.58M |
| Gross Profit | 322.15M | 1.05B | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 197.58M |
| EBITDA | -205.59M | 492.33M | -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B |
| Net Income | -247.73M | 440.30M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 955.58M | 1.18B | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 719.34M | 735.08M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 295.60M | 248.81M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.30B | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | -190.71M | -127.75M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.59M | -250.19M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -39.50M | -244.63M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -109.51M | -78.27M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 82.87M | 27.74M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Positive
9.21
Price Trends
10.21
Positive
9.44
Positive
9.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Positive
49.08
Neutral
16.78
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.45, below the 50-day MA of 10.21, and below the 200-day MA of 9.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $3.79B | -22.67 | -17.49% | ― | 101.28% | 2.49% | |
58 Neutral | $1.82B | -5.71 | -29.99% | ― | 1495.93% | 53.66% | |
52 Neutral | $1.82B | -7.24 | 159.85% | ― | -61.64% | -158.19% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.43B | -10.26 | -35.35% | ― | ― | 28.64% | |
41 Neutral | $706.49M | -3.09 | -134.49% | ― | ― | 28.46% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVAX
Novavax
11.01
2.65
31.70%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
10.57
4.79
82.87%
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals
13.85
1.43
11.51%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
12.24
6.53
114.36%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
2.35
-3.24
-57.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.