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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-2.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
Overall score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (recent losses, negative equity, and ongoing cash burn) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a more positive earnings-call outlook focused on partnership momentum, improved liquidity, and a clearer cost-reduction roadmap toward non-GAAP profitability.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Expanding relationships with major pharmaceutical companies broadens Novavax’s commercialization reach and creates multiple opportunities for licensing, milestones and royalties without requiring the company to fund every program alone.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Equity
A sustained equity deficit leaves the company more dependent on liabilities, partner funding and capital-market access. It also reduces resilience if vaccine revenue or expected licensing proceeds fall short of management’s plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Expanding relationships with major pharmaceutical companies broadens Novavax’s commercialization reach and creates multiple opportunities for licensing, milestones and royalties without requiring the company to fund every program alone.
Read all positive factors
Novavax (NVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.55B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth-61.64%
EPS Growth-158.19%
CountryUS
Employees749
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.52
Shares Outstanding164,945,720
10 Day Avg. Volume6,095,903
30 Day Avg. Volume4,088,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-8.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-4.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.25Price Target Upside43.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$371.31M
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology firm dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing vaccines aimed at preventing serious infectious diseases and addressing critical health needs. The company's diverse pipeline includes NVX-CoV2373, a c...
How the Company Makes Money
Novavax generates revenue primarily from (1) sales of its vaccines where it has commercialization arrangements, and (2) revenue recognized from licensing, collaboration, and supply/manufacturing-related agreements tied to its vaccine programs.
Ke...
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong strategic progress: rapid expansion of partner collaborations, material partner-driven revenue growth, improved cash position and meaningful reductions in operating costs. Management showcased encouraging preclinical data (notably for a prioritized C. difficile asset) and reiterated 2026 guidance while outlining a credible path to non-GAAP profitability by 2028. Near-term challenges include a large YoY revenue decline driven by a prior-period noncash item, modest direct product sales, continued reliance on partners to convert MTAs to licensed programs and some near-term expense support for partners. On balance, the highlights—particularly partnership momentum, partner-revenue growth, cash runway and cost reductions—substantially outweigh the lowlights, though execution and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Signed multiple partnerships and MTAs: new nonexclusive Pfizer license (received $30M upfront, eligible for up to $250M in development/sales milestones per asset and royalties up to 20 years), deepened Sanofi collaboration, 4 new MTAs in early 2026 including a top-10 oncology pharma, and licensing/MTA coverage across 4 of the top 10 global pharma companies enabling exploration of >30 unique indications.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline (Headline)
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $140M, down 79% compared to Q1 2025; the decline was driven largely by a $603M noncash revenue recognition in Q1 2025 from the Nuvaxovid APA closeout, which distorts year-over-year comparisons.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Partnering Momentum
Signed multiple partnerships and MTAs: new nonexclusive Pfizer license (received $30M upfront, eligible for up to $250M in development/sales milestones per asset and royalties up to 20 years), deepened Sanofi collaboration, 4 new MTAs in early 2026 including a top-10 oncology pharma, and licensing/MTA coverage across 4 of the top 10 global pharma companies enabling exploration of >30 unique indications.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 adjusted total revenue guidance of $230–$270M (midpoint $250M) — noting $119M was recognized in Q1, leaving ~$131M to be recorded (~$44M/quarter) — and reiterated 2026/2027 non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A guidance of $325M and $225M at midpoints (2026 non‑GAAP range $310–$340M net of partner reimbursements; GAAP combined guidance $380–$420M). They said they expect to operate at an approximate $200M core spend excluding ~ $125M (2026) and ~$25M (2027) of non‑reimbursed Sanofi/APA‑related costs, refined 2028 non‑GAAP R&D+SG&A to $150–$200M, and continue to target non‑GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028. Novavax ended Q1 with $818M in cash & accounts receivable, added $80M of nondilutive cash in Q1 (including a $30M Pfizer upfront and a $50M initial draw on a $330M credit facility) and believes this funds operations into 2028 without new upfronts/milestones/royalties. Q1 results cited in support of the guidance: total revenue $140M (‑79% YoY), supply sales $33M (+139% YoY), licensing/royalties & other $97M (+116% YoY), Nuvaxovid sales $10M; non‑GAAP combined R&D & SG&A down 23% YoY (non‑GAAP R&D down 13%; GAAP SG&A down 40%); and a $9M net loss. (Note: 2026 adjusted total revenue excludes Sanofi supply sales, royalties and milestones.)Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 413.80M | 1.12B | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 197.58M |
| Gross Profit | 322.15M | 1.05B | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 197.58M |
| EBITDA | -202.53M | 492.33M | -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B |
| Net Income | -247.73M | 440.30M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 955.58M | 1.18B | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 719.34M | 735.08M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 295.60M | 248.81M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.30B | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | -190.71M | -127.75M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.59M | -250.19M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -39.50M | -244.63M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -109.51M | -78.27M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 82.87M | 27.74M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Positive
9.21
Price Trends
8.49
Positive
8.77
Positive
8.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
71.68
Negative
81.36
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.54, above the 50-day MA of 8.49, and above the 200-day MA of 8.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $1.85B | -6.29 | -29.99% | ― | 1495.93% | 53.66% | |
56 Neutral | $3.72B | -20.89 | -17.49% | ― | 101.28% | 2.49% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.35B | -9.55 | -35.35% | ― | ― | 28.64% | |
45 Neutral | $1.55B | -6.66 | 159.85% | ― | -61.64% | -158.19% | |
43 Neutral | $1.16B | -5.04 | -134.49% | ― | ― | 28.46% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVAX
Novavax
10.12
2.72
36.76%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
11.63
6.12
111.07%
ORIC
Oric Pharmaceuticals
12.89
2.29
21.60%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics
11.28
7.29
182.71%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
3.83
0.84
28.09%
Novavax Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Novavax Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Incentive Plans
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
At its June 18, 2026 annual meeting, Novavax stockholders elected Class I directors John C. Jacobs, Gregg H. Alton and Richard J. Rodgers to three-year terms expiring at the 2029 meeting, with a quorum of more than 99 million shares represented. I...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.