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Nuvation Bio
(NYSE:NUVB)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-29.58% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance (large losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was constructive, highlighting strong IBTROZI commercial momentum and a strengthened liquidity position, while valuation remains difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Commercial growth and market leadership
IBTROZI combines rapid revenue growth with leading first-line positioning in a growing ROS1 market. This supports durable patient-base expansion as treatment shifts earlier, while established prescribing leadership and increasing starts can strengthen recurring product revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and cash burn
The company remains far from sustainable profitability, with substantial net losses and negative free cash flow consuming its capital base. Continued operating deficits increase reliance on financing or future commercial milestones and could constrain investment flexibility if revenue growth does not outpace spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial growth and market leadership
IBTROZI combines rapid revenue growth with leading first-line positioning in a growing ROS1 market. This supports durable patient-base expansion as treatment shifts earlier, while established prescribing leadership and increasing starts can strengthen recurring product revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nuvation Bio Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue into sources such as product sales, licensing, collaboration and milestone payments, and grants, highlighting whether income is recurring or one-time. For clinical-stage Nuvation Bio, which likely has limited commercial sales, this reveals reliance on partnerships and milestone receipts to fund R&D, the timing risks to cash flow and runway, and how close the company is to generating steady product revenue.
Breaks down revenue into sources such as product sales, licensing, collaboration and milestone payments, and grants, highlighting whether income is recurring or one-time. For clinical-stage Nuvation Bio, which likely has limited commercial sales, this reveals reliance on partnerships and milestone receipts to fund R&D, the timing risks to cash flow and runway, and how close the company is to generating steady product revenue.
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The Fly
The FlyNuvation Bio (NUVB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth1083.56%
EPS Growth30.89%
CountryUS
Employees305
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.43
Shares Outstanding351,123,230
10 Day Avg. Volume6,568,569
30 Day Avg. Volume5,218,640
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)10.01
Price to Sales (P/S)48.65
P/FCF Ratio-17.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-13.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.57Price Target Upside105.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$197.40M
Nuvation Bio Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuvation Bio Inc. functions as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical enterprise committed to discovering and advancing therapeutic solutions for oncological conditions. Its foremost experimental compound, NUV-422, is a small molecule designed to inhi...
How the Company Makes Money
Nuvation Bio primarily seeks to make money by developing oncology drug candidates and monetizing them through (1) regulatory approval and subsequent product sales, and/or (2) partnering and licensing arrangements with other biopharmaceutical compa...
Nuvation Bio Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive commercial and clinical trajectory: IBTROZI is demonstrating strong revenue growth, clear market leadership in first-line ROS1, exceptional clinical durability and favorable patient-reported outcomes, while safusidenib shows encouraging long-term activity and an expanded development plan. The company further strengthened its balance sheet via a well‑subscribed convertible note offering. Key near-term challenges include elevated operating expenses, gross-to-net pressure, community testing and prescribing inertia, and multi‑year timelines for Phase III readouts. Competitive entrants and dilution risk exist but were framed as manageable. On balance, the highlights (robust revenue growth, market share leadership, best-in-class clinical data, strong cash position and program expansion) materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong IBTROZI Commercial Performance
IBTROZI net U.S. product revenue grew 25% quarter-over-quarter to $23.2M in Q2; total Q2 revenue was $31.7M (including $8.5M collaboration/license revenue). For the first 6 months of 2026, total revenue was $114.9M with $41.7M in IBTROZI net revenue. Q2 IBTROZI revenue was in line with the median estimate of 10 covering analysts.
Negative Updates
High Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses were $73.3M for the quarter, including R&D of $30.7M and SG&A of $42.6M. SG&A reflects substantial commercialization investment and the company does not expect changes to general spending patterns for the remainder of the year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong IBTROZI Commercial Performance
IBTROZI net U.S. product revenue grew 25% quarter-over-quarter to $23.2M in Q2; total Q2 revenue was $31.7M (including $8.5M collaboration/license revenue). For the first 6 months of 2026, total revenue was $114.9M with $41.7M in IBTROZI net revenue. Q2 IBTROZI revenue was in line with the median estimate of 10 covering analysts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to steady commercial and clinical execution and reiterated financial strength: Q2 total revenue was $31.7M including $23.2M in IBTROZI net U.S. product revenue (IBTROZI up 25% Q/Q), ~160 new patient starts in Q2 (~85% first‑line; first‑line NPS up ~30% Q/Q; IBTROZI now >50% share in first‑line per IQVIA), 1H total revenue $114.9M (IBTROZI 1H net $41.7M), gross‑to‑net ~30% expected to remain stable, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $661M as of June 30 (including ~$242.6M of net proceeds from a ~$279.1M offering of 0.75% convertible notes due 2032 that was ~5x oversubscribed and included a $36.5M overallotment after quarter end); Q2 operating expenses were $73.3M (R&D $30.7M, SG&A $42.6M; R&D 1H $65.7M, SG&A 1H $80.9M). They prepaid a $50M term loan (≈$58.7M payment), kept the Sagard synthetic royalty, entered capped calls (initial cap $10.458, 80% premium) to limit dilution, and expect lower cash interest vs. the term facility. Program guidance included safusidenib SIGMA and G307 (randomized Phase III, 140 patients) with PFS primary endpoints and data expected in 2029, a G209 Phase II post‑vorasidenib cohort (up to 40 patients) plus exploratory ORR/TGR endpoints, a DDC platform update by year‑end, continued eligibility for an ≈$30M Eisai EU approval milestone expected in H1 next year, and the assertion that current capital is sufficient to reach profitability and fund the anticipated safusidenib launch; key clinical metrics highlighted on the call included IBTROZI TKI‑naive ORR 90% and median DOR/PFS of 50 months, and safusidenib J201 (n=27) ORR 52% with 36‑month PFS rate 79% (median PFS not reached).Nuvation Bio Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 169.90M | 62.90M | 7.87M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 159.60M | 54.46M | 795.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -127.04M | -189.21M | -566.91M | -75.58M | -104.00M | -86.66M |
| Net Income | -149.83M | -204.63M | -567.94M | -75.80M | -104.20M | -86.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 744.50M | 594.82M | 540.63M | 621.48M | 672.14M | 776.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 660.96M | 529.21M | 502.69M | 611.21M | 661.01M | 765.39M |
| Total Debt | 252.14M | 10.15M | 8.91M | 4.01M | 4.26M | 3.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 490.64M | 289.11M | 76.84M | 16.36M | 17.07M | 30.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 253.86M | 305.72M | 463.79M | 605.12M | 655.08M | 746.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -120.92M | -173.78M | -130.57M | -68.07M | -96.48M | -68.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -120.52M | -173.43M | -130.41M | -68.00M | -96.11M | -68.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.18M | 99.52M | 122.70M | 8.92M | 63.46M | -454.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 179.14M | 202.53M | 331.00K | 628.00K | 1.33M | 625.53M |
Nuvation Bio Technical Analysis
Negative
7.10
Price Trends
6.18
Negative
5.85
Negative
5.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Positive
30.87
Neutral
23.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUVB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.55, above the 50-day MA of 6.18, and above the 200-day MA of 5.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NUVB.
Nuvation Bio Risk Analysis
Nuvation Bio disclosed 94 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuvation Bio reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuvation Bio Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | $942.98M | -3.15 | -207.18% | ― | -7.27% | -48.89% | |
54 Neutral | $1.76B | -11.51 | -49.73% | ― | 1083.56% | 30.89% | |
54 Neutral | $1.84B | -12.77 | -72.07% | ― | -69.78% | -106.07% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $1.52B | -6.74 | -372.94% | ― | 222.65% | 35.43% | |
48 Neutral | $2.32B | -6.48 | -76.09% | ― | -58.40% | -31.99% | |
45 Neutral | $684.23M | -3.69 | -48.22% | ― | ― | -10.16% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NUVB
Nuvation Bio
5.00
1.32
35.87%
KURA
Kura Oncology
10.60
0.67
6.75%
SNDX
Syndax Pharmaceuticals
16.99
1.79
11.78%
ZYME
Zymeworks
25.79
7.68
42.41%
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics
22.35
12.63
129.94%
OLMA
Olema Pharmaceuticals
7.82
-2.93
-27.26%
Nuvation Bio Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nuvation Bio Expands Convertible Notes Offering and Financing
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Nuvation Bio completed a registered underwritten public offering of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032, initially raising $250 million in aggregate principal amount. The underwriters exercised in full their 30-day greenshoe ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.