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Natera (NTRA) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q2, 2026
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 06, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1Our estimates of total addressable market opportunity and forecasts of market growth may prove to be inaccurate, and even if the market markets in which we compete achieves achieve the forecasted growth, our business could fail to grow at similar rates.
Total addressable market opportunity estimates and growth forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty and are based on assumptions and estimates that may not prove to be accurate. Our publicly announced estimates and forecasts relating to the size and expected growth of the markets in which we compete may prove to be inaccurate. Even if a market in which we compete meets our size estimates and forecasted growth for such market, our business could fail to grow at similar rates.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2We have incurred net losses since our inception and we anticipate that we will continue to incur losses for the foreseeable near future, which could harm our future business prospects.
We have incurred net losses each year since our inception in 2003. To date, we have financed our operations primarily through convertible debt and other debt instruments, our initial public offering, and our registered public equity offerings. Our net loss for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023 was $208.2 million, $190.4 million, and $434.8 million, respectively. As of December 31, 2025, we had an accumulated deficit of $2.8 billion. We may continue to experience such losses in the future as we continue to devote a substantial portion of our resources to efforts to increase the adoption of, and reimbursement for, our products, improve these products, and research and develop and commercialize new products and acquire new technologies and businesses. In addition, the rate of growth in our revenues has fluctuated in the past, and may continue to do so in future periods. In particular, such rate of growth may be negative, flat, or may grow more slowly than we expect, including if the rate of growth of our test volumes slows. Furthermore, although there is a CPT code in place for microdeletions testing, we have experienced low average reimbursement rates for microdeletions testing under this CPT code, and our microdeletions reimbursement may continue to remain low, at least in the near term, either due to reduced reimbursement, or third-party payers declining to reimburse, under the microdeletions code, which has had and will likely continue to have an adverse effect on our revenues. Our ability to forecast our future operating results, including revenues, cash flows and profitability, is limited and subject to a number of uncertainties. We have also encountered and will continue to encounter risks and uncertainties frequently experienced by rapidly growing companies in the life sciences and technology industry, such as those described in this report. If our assumptions regarding these risks and uncertainties are incorrect or these risks and uncertainties change, or if we do not address these risks successfully, our operating and financial results may differ materially from our expectations, and our business may suffer.
Risk Highlights Q2, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 55
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation provides that the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware is the exclusive forum for substantially all disputes between us and our stockholders, which could limit our stockholders' ability to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with us or our directors, officers or employees.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation provides that the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware is the exclusive forum for any derivative action or proceeding brought on our behalf, any action asserting a breach of fiduciary duty, any action asserting a claim against us arising pursuant to the Delaware General Corporation Law or any action asserting a claim against us that is governed by the internal affairs doctrine. This choice of forum provision may limit a stockholder's ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that it finds favorable for disputes with us or our directors, officers or other employees and may discourage these types of lawsuits. Alternatively, if a court were to find the choice of forum provision contained in our certificate of incorporation to be inapplicable or unenforceable in an action, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such action in other jurisdictions, which could harm our business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2Provisions in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation, amended and restated bylaws, and Delaware law might discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of our company or changes in our management and, therefore, depress the market price of our common stock.
Our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws contain provisions that could depress the market price of our common stock by acting to discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of our company or changes in our management that the stockholders of our company may deem advantageous. These provisions, among other things: - authorize the issuance of "blank check" preferred stock that our board of directors could use to implement a stockholder rights plan;- prohibit stockholder action by written consent, which requires all stockholder actions to be taken at a meeting of our stockholders;- eliminate the ability of our stockholders to call special meetings of stockholders;- establish advance notice requirements for nominations for election to our board of directors or for proposing matters that can be acted upon by stockholders at annual stockholder meetings;- establish a classified board of directors so that not all members of our board are elected at one time;- permit the board of directors to establish the number of directors;- provide that directors may only be removed "for cause" and only with the approval of 75% of our stockholders;- require super-majority voting to amend some provisions in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws; and - provide that the board of directors is expressly authorized to make, alter or repeal our amended and restated bylaws. In addition, Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law may discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of our company. Section 203 imposes certain restrictions on mergers, business combinations and other transactions between us and holders of 15% or more of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3If securities or industry analysts do not publish research or publish inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, our stock price and trading volume could decline.
The trading market for our common stock depends in part on the research and reports that securities or industry analysts publish about us or our business. If industry analysts cease coverage of us or fail to publish reports on us regularly, the trading price for our common stock could be adversely affected. If one or more of the analysts who cover us downgrade our common stock or publish inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, our common stock price would likely decline.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4Sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock in the public markets could cause the price of our common stock to decline.
Sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock in the public market or the perception that these sales might occur could depress the market price of our common stock and could impair our ability to raise capital through the sale of additional equity securities. We are unable to predict the effect that sales may have on the prevailing market price of our common stock. As we have done in the past, we may issue our shares of common stock or securities convertible into our common stock, such as our Convertible Notes, from time to time in connection with a financing, acquisition, investments or otherwise. Any such issuance could result in substantial dilution to our existing stockholders and cause the price of our common stock to decline.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5Future sales and issuances of our common stock or rights to purchase common stock, including pursuant to our equity incentive plans or in connection with acquisitions or strategic or commercial transactions, could result in additional dilution of the percentage ownership of our stockholders and could cause the price of our common stock to decline.
From time to time, we may issue additional securities or sell common stock, convertible securities, such as the Convertible Notes, or other equity securities in one or more transactions at prices and in a manner we determine. We also expect to continue to issue common stock to employees and directors pursuant to our equity incentive plans. If we sell or issue common stock, convertible securities, or other equity securities, or common stock is issued pursuant to equity incentive plans, investors in our common stock may be materially diluted. As we have done in the past, we may decide to issue common stock or other equity securities in connection with an acquisition or a strategic or commercial transaction, which could cause dilution to our existing stockholders. New investors in such transactions could gain rights, preferences and privileges senior to those of holders of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6The market price of our common stock has been and may be volatile, which could subject us to litigation.
The trading prices of the securities of life sciences companies, including ours, have been and may continue to be highly volatile; and financial markets in general, including our stock, experienced particularly high volatility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and continued difficult macroeconomic conditions. Accordingly, the market price of our common stock is likely to be subject to wide fluctuations in response to numerous factors, many of which are beyond our control, such as those in this "Risk Factors" section and others including: - actual or anticipated variations in our and our competitors' results of operations, as well as how those results compare to analyst and investor expectations;- announcements by us or our competitors of new products, significant acquisitions, other strategic transactions, including strategic and commercial partnerships and relationships, joint ventures, divestitures, collaborations or capital commitments;- changes in reimbursement practices by current or potential payers;- failure of analysts to initiate or maintain coverage of our company, issuance of new securities analysts' reports or changed recommendations for our stock;- negative publicity, including misinformation, about our company, our tests, or the commercial markets in which we operate;- forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance or projections, our failure to meet or exceed our financial guidance or projections or changes in our financial guidance or projections;- actual or anticipated changes in regulatory oversight of our products;- development of disputes concerning our intellectual property or other proprietary rights;- commencement of, or our involvement in, litigation and the outcomes of our litigation matters;- announcement or expectation of additional debt or equity financing efforts;- any major change in our management;- general economic conditions and slow or negative growth of our markets, including as a result of changes in the rate of inflation (including the cost of raw materials, commodities, and supplies) and interest rates; and - changes in business, economic, and political conditions, including war, political instability and related military action. In addition, if the market for life sciences stocks or the stock market in general experiences uneven investor confidence, as has been the case in the past, the market price of our common stock could decline for reasons unrelated to our business, operating results or financial condition. The market price of our common stock might also decline in reaction to events that affect other companies within, or outside, our industry even if these events do not directly affect us. Some companies, including us, that have experienced volatility in the trading price of their stock have been the subject of securities class action litigation, and we may in the future become subject to such litigation. For example, we have in the past been subject to a purported securities class action lawsuit filed against us, our directors and certain of our officers and stockholders related to our initial public offering. Under certain circumstances, we have contractual and other legal obligations to indemnify and to incur legal expenses on behalf of current and former directors and officers, and on behalf of our former underwriters, in connection with any future lawsuits. Any lawsuit to which we are a party, with or without merit, may result in an unfavorable judgment. We also may decide to settle lawsuits on unfavorable terms. Any such negative outcome could result in payments of substantial damages or fines, damage to our reputation or adverse changes to our offerings or business practices. Defending against litigation is costly and time-consuming, and could divert our management's attention and resources. Furthermore, during the course of litigation, there could be negative public announcements of the results of hearings, motions or other interim proceedings or developments, which could have a material adverse effect on the market price of our common stock.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.