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Nelnet (NNI) AI Stock Analysis

NNI

Nelnet

(NYSE:NNI)

Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:$138.00â–²(12.68% Upside)
Action:downgraded
Date:09/17/26

The score is primarily supported by strong profitability and healthy cash-flow conversion, which outweigh near-term concerns. The biggest risks tempering the score are the sharp TTM revenue decline and uncertainty around leverage consistency, while technicals look neutral-to-soft and valuation appears reasonable with a modest dividend.

Positive Factors
Strong profitability and cash conversionHealthy operating margins and strong conversion of earnings into free cash flow indicate that Nelnet is generating substantial internal funding. This supports continued investment in servicing, payments, and technology platforms while improving resilience across its diversified financial-services model.
Negative Factors
Sharp recent revenue contractionThe sharp TTM revenue decline shows that Nelnet’s earnings strength is not currently matched by consistent top-line expansion. Persistent contraction could reduce operating leverage, limit investment capacity, and indicate pressure in servicing, asset-based, or technology-related revenue streams.

Nelnet (NNI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NNI-5.17%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$4.38B
Dividend Yield
1.08%
Average Volume (3M)
141.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
14.7
Beta (1Y)
0.52
Revenue Growth
-6.77%
EPS Growth
-7.42%
Country
US
Employees
5,744
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Financial - Credit Services

Nelnet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nelnet, Inc. operates globally, encompassing a variety of businesses including loan management, telecommunications, educational technology, related services, and payment processing solutions. Its Loan Servicing and Systems division offers comprehensi...

How the Company Makes Money

Nelnet makes money through a combination of (1) interest and investment income from financial assets and (2) fee-based revenues from servicing and technology/payment platforms. 1) Loan servicing and related fees (education and other portfolios) - Nel...

Nelnet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash conversion support fundamentals (TTM net margin ~17.5%, EBIT margin ~28.1%, and FCF ~0.92x net income). Offsetting this, TTM revenue declined sharply (~-19.1%), and the balance-sheet picture is less clear due to the sharp shift to reported zero debt in TTM versus elevated leverage historically.

Income Statement

71Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

78Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.86B2.26B1.85B1.81B1.82B1.42B
Gross Profit1.54B1.97B1.11B961.15M1.35B1.25B
EBITDA561.82M1.11B361.11M214.11M678.09M634.43M
Net Income302.24M428.47M184.04M89.83M406.90M393.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets14.28B14.06B13.78B16.71B19.37B21.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.56B973.55M1.18B1.11B1.51B1.06B
Total Debt7.04B7.79B8.31B11.83B14.64B17.65B
Total Liabilities10.64B10.49B10.48B13.51B16.17B18.73B
Stockholders Equity3.77B3.69B3.35B3.25B3.20B2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow364.03M396.75M641.99M358.92M624.64M421.38M
Operating Cash Flow401.06M422.99M662.89M432.98M684.06M480.33M
Investing Cash Flow-290.24M509.43M2.41B1.94B2.27B1.19B
Financing Cash Flow67.50M-890.16M-3.17B-2.70B-2.79B-1.43B

Nelnet Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price122.47

Price Trends

50DMA125.54Negative
100DMA128.54Negative
200DMA129.76Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.85Positive
RSI41.21Neutral
STOCH29.23Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 122.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.89, below the 50-day MA of 125.54, and below the 200-day MA of 129.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NNI.

Nelnet Risk Analysis

Nelnet disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nelnet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Nelnet Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

NNI against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ENVAENVA71Outperform$4.26B11.3226.36%―20.08%33.74%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
NNINNI67Neutral$4.38B14.708.15%1.08%-6.77%-7.42%
SLMSLM66Neutral$3.25B6.3823.59%2.92%-6.24%-3.47%
SOFISOFI65Neutral$21.65B28.906.76%―37.62%0.62%
UPSTUPST58Neutral$2.24B37.057.85%―46.30%―
NAVINAVI51Neutral$872.19M-18.98-2.04%6.88%-17.19%-244.62%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%NNISLMNAVIENVAUPSTSOFIDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
NNI and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
NNINelnet122.47-5.03-3.94%
SLMSlm Corporation17.80-8.86-33.23%
NAVINavient Corporation9.30-2.08-18.27%
ENVAEnova International Inc.174.0951.6642.20%
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.23.02-24.52-51.58%
SOFISofi Technologies Inc16.76-13.87-45.28%

Nelnet Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Nelnet Expands Board with Two New Independent Directors

Positive
Sep 16, 2026

On September 15, 2026, Nelnet’s board of directors expanded from eight to ten members and appointed Angie Klein and Ed Pallesen as independent directors, with Klein designated a Class III director through the 2029 annual meeting and Pallesen a...

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Nelnet Bank Files Quarterly Regulatory Call Report Update

Neutral
Jul 30, 2026

On July 29, 2026, Nelnet Bank filed its Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, using the FFIEC 051 form applicable to banks with domestic offices and assets bel...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2026