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CTP N.V.
(CTPNV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
€17.00
▲(18.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong growth and profitability, but offset by leverage and weaker cash conversion) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a ~4% dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical positioning, with the stock trading below all major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Meaningful multi-year revenue expansion shows scalable demand for CTP’s industrial-logistics parks and successful development/letting activity. A growing rental base and steady new completions provide predictable recurring income and support long-term cash flow as projects stabilize.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningful leverage (debt roughly equal to equity) reduces financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest rates and asset-value changes. In downturns or tighter funding markets this level of indebtedness can pressure cash available for reinvestment and distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Meaningful multi-year revenue expansion shows scalable demand for CTP’s industrial-logistics parks and successful development/letting activity. A growing rental base and steady new completions provide predictable recurring income and support long-term cash flow as projects stabilize.
Read all positive factors
CTP N.V. (CTPNV) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€6.97B
Dividend Yield4.85%
Average Volume (3M)192.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth12.95%
EPS Growth-53.58%
CountryNL
Employees955
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.06
Shares Outstanding490,185,270
10 Day Avg. Volume145,952
30 Day Avg. Volume192,146
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.70
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)9.17
P/FCF Ratio30.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€19.83Price Target Upside38.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)€937.40M
CTP N.V. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTP N.V., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, operates, and leases commercial real estate properties Central and Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, and Italy. It offers industrial properties for various applications, su...
How the Company Makes Money
CTP N.V. primarily makes money by generating recurring rental income from leasing its industrial and logistics properties to corporate tenants. Revenue is typically driven by (1) contracted rents from existing leases across its portfolio, which ma...
CTP N.V. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial report: strong leasing activity, double-digit increases in net rental income and EPRA earnings, meaningful portfolio revaluation and NAV accretion, robust liquidity and an investment-grade upgrade. Management is executing geographic expansion (Italy, exploratory Vietnam) and guiding to resilient 2026 completions and EPS growth. Headwinds included elevated absolute vacancy due to scale and refurbishments, a modest decline in tenant retention, development timing delays that shifted ~150,000 sqm and caused a EUR 0.01 EPS miss, and temporary pressure on leverage (LTV at 46.1%) and costs from new market entries. On balance, the positives (growth, earnings, revaluations, strong leasing and funding access) materially outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Negative Updates
Leverage and LTV slightly above target
Loan-to-value ended at 46.1%, marginally above the stated 40%–45% target, driven by the Italy acquisition; normalized net debt-to-EBITDA at ~9.3x and interest coverage ratio stable at 2.5x, indicating elevated leverage though management expects metrics to normalize as leasing and revaluations crystallize.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong rental income and net rental growth
Net rental income increased 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million; annualized rental income rose 13% to EUR 840 million, illustrating strong cash flow generation and a locked-in growth profile for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CTP guided 2026 development completions of 1.4–1.7 million sqm (including ~200,000 sqm in Italy), with a start‑of‑year pre‑let of ~30% (30–35% range) and an 80–90% pre‑let target at delivery; company‑specific adjusted EPRA EPS is guided at EUR 1.01–1.03 (up ~9–11% y/y from EUR 0.85 in 2025), annualized rental income is expected to rise from EUR 840m to about EUR 1.0bn, and the medium‑term trajectory remains double‑digit growth (targeting ~15% p.a. top‑line growth). Financial targets include ~10% yield on cost for 2026 projects, a FY25 reversionary yield of 6.9% with selective compression and ERV growth in line with inflation, LTV to move back toward the 40–45% target from 46.1% at year‑end, normalized net debt/EBITDA ~9.3x, ICR floor ~2.5x, weighted average cost of debt ~3.3% (marginal funding <3.5%), liquidity of EUR 2.0bn (EUR 700m cash + EUR 1.3bn RCF), a push to ~80% unsecured debt, a longer‑term 30m sqm GLA ambition by 2030, and a dividend payout in the 70–80% range (moving toward the lower end).CTP N.V. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.03B | 970.20M | 870.70M | 673.80M | 589.11M | 407.37M |
| Gross Profit | 809.60M | 760.00M | 681.80M | 554.00M | 464.92M | 333.66M |
| EBITDA | 858.10M | 1.71B | 1.59B | 461.20M | 1.04B | 1.33B |
| Net Income | 556.00M | 1.08B | 1.08B | 922.60M | 766.60M | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.16B | 19.97B | 17.38B | 14.87B | 12.53B | 9.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 411.10M | 708.40M | 855.40M | 690.60M | 660.63M | 892.82M |
| Total Debt | 9.44B | 9.29B | 8.15B | 7.02B | 5.88B | 4.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.67B | 11.51B | 10.03B | 8.71B | 7.24B | 5.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.48B | 8.46B | 7.35B | 6.17B | 5.28B | 4.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.40M | 287.70M | 306.60M | 256.50M | 256.41M | 125.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 340.00M | 382.70M | 340.00M | 318.40M | 300.31M | 139.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -1.53B | -1.33B | -1.18B | -1.36B | -1.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 725.70M | 992.00M | 1.15B | 886.10M | 837.18M | 1.77B |
CTP N.V. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | €2.39B | 16.57 | 26.13% | 2.75% | 11.28% | 28.75% | |
71 Outperform | €5.23B | 11.60 | 14.41% | 3.73% | 0.85% | -0.29% | |
70 Outperform | €6.97B | 13.42 | ― | 4.85% | 12.95% | -53.58% | |
68 Neutral | €3.11B | 12.28 | 24.42% | 2.61% | 7.01% | 87.12% | |
59 Neutral | €341.03M | -20.14 | -2.54% | 13.92% | -3.75% | -1040.34% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
51 Neutral | €13.60M | -15.66 | -4.06% | 7.52% | -44.85% | ― |
* General Sector Average
NL:CTPNV
CTP N.V.
14.22
-3.33
-19.00%
NL:BAMNB
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11.51
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51.63%
NL:ECT
Eurocastle Investment
13.50
3.85
39.90%
NL:HEIJM
Heijmans N.V.
86.30
30.43
54.47%
NL:NSI
NSI NV
16.74
-2.77
-14.21%
NL:VPK
Royal Vopak NV
48.32
8.73
22.04%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.