ASML Holding NV (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €258.54B
• Dividend Yield: 0.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 910.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.00
• Revenue Growth: 17.67%
• EPS Growth: 22.62%
• Country: NL
• Employees: 43,129
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 6.00
• Shares Outstanding: 393,830,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 646,953
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 910,722
• PEG Ratio: 1.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €767.18
• Price Target Upside: 12.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

ASML Holding NV is positioned well within the semiconductor industry due to its robust financial performance, highlighted by strong revenue and profit growth, efficient capital management, and low debt levels. While the technical indicators suggest positive momentum, caution is advised due to potential overvaluation and overbought signals. The high P/E ratio indicates market expectations of growth, yet the modest dividend yield suggests returns are more focused on future growth than immediate payouts.

Positive Factors

Customer Diversification

US system sales were likely skewed to Micron rather than Intel, which is positive for customer diversification and EUV adoption in DRAM.

Market Power

ASML is a monopoly in the semiconductor lithography market, with a 100% share in EUV, implying very high bargaining power for the company.

Sales Projections

Notable strength in China bookings supports increased sales projections for this year.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Concerns

Free cash flow of negative €676mn missed consensus, driven by negative operating cash flow as a result of increased inventories and capex.

Growth Challenges

Underwhelming orders and absence of TSMC in the EUV order book suggest challenges for ASML's growth estimates.

Tariff Uncertainty

Tariff risk remains unknown and poses a potential threat to earnings forecasts.

ASML Holding NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems consisting of lithography, metrology, and inspection related systems for memory and logic chipmakers. The company provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. It also offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology solutions to measure the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI e-beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. In addition, the company provides computational lithography and software solutions to create applications that enhance the setup of the lithography system; and mature products and services that refurbish used lithography equipment and offers associated services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, Europe, the United States, and rest of Asia. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML generates revenue primarily through the sale of its photolithography systems, which are crucial in the semiconductor manufacturing process. A significant portion of its income comes from the sale of EUV lithography machines, which are essential for producing cutting-edge semiconductor nodes. In addition to equipment sales, ASML earns money from service contracts, providing maintenance and support for its machines. Furthermore, ASML benefits from the sale of software and metrology systems that complement its hardware offerings. The company's revenue is also bolstered by strategic partnerships and collaborations with major semiconductor manufacturers, which help drive innovation and ensure a steady demand for its products.

ASML Holding NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML Holding NV showcases strong financial health across all verticals, with impressive revenue and profit growth. The company exhibits efficient use of equity, low leverage, and excellent cash flow management, reflecting stability, profitability, and prudent financial practices.

Income Statement

ASML Holding NV demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability. The gross profit margin stands at 52.0% for TTM, reflecting efficient production management. Net profit margin has improved to 28.3% for TTM, indicative of effective cost control and profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 8.7% annually, highlighting a positive growth trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are at 33.8% and 37.4% respectively, underscoring operational efficiency and strong earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.

Balance Sheet

ASML's balance sheet is stable, with a healthy equity ratio of 38.5% for TTM, indicating a balanced capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.21, showing conservative leverage practices. Return on equity (ROE) is strong at 49.7% for TTM, demonstrating effective utilization of shareholder funds to generate profits. The company maintains a solid financial position with substantial stockholders' equity.

Cash Flow

ASML exhibits excellent cash flow management, with a free cash flow growth rate of 2.0% annually, indicating efficient capital utilization. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 1.3, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.1 for TTM, suggesting robust free cash flow relative to profits. These metrics highlight ASML's ability to generate and manage cash effectively.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
30.71B	28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
	Gross Profit
15.98B	14.49B	14.14B	10.70B	9.81B	6.80B
	EBIT
10.37B	9.02B	9.04B	6.50B	6.75B	4.05B
	EBITDA
11.50B	10.12B	9.98B	7.10B	7.23B	4.55B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.70B	7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.10B	12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B	7.35B
	Total Assets
45.48B	48.59B	39.96B	38.83B	30.23B	27.27B
	Total Debt
3.68B	3.68B	4.86B	4.26B	4.08B	4.66B
	Net Debt
-5.42B	-9.06B	-2.15B	-3.01B	-2.88B	-1.39B
	Total Liabilities
27.98B	30.11B	26.51B	27.54B	20.09B	13.40B
	Stockholders Equity
17.50B	18.48B	13.45B	11.29B	10.14B	13.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.29B	9.10B	3.25B	7.22B	9.91B	3.63B
	Operating Cash Flow
11.36B	11.17B	5.44B	9.43B	10.85B	4.63B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.30B	-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.92B	-72.00M	-1.35B
	Financing Cash Flow
-5.06B	-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.19B	-9.89B	-753.00M

ASML Holding NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 683.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:ASML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 683.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 600.04, above the 50-day MA of 620.85, and below the 200-day MA of 685.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:ASML.

ASML Holding NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASML	77 Outperform	€258.54B	30.11	55.62%	0.96%	17.67%	22.62%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.39B	10.52	-6.21%	2.95%	7.68%	-11.12%