National Health Investors (NHI) AI Stock Analysis

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National Health Investors

(NYSE:NHI)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$82.00

▲(11.66%Upside)

National Health Investors exhibits strong financial performance and positive earnings sentiment, driving its overall score. However, technical indicators suggest limited short-term upside, and valuation appears stretched relative to sector peers. The company's solid dividend yield and healthy acquisition pipeline are key positives.

Positive Factors

Earnings

1Q25 earnings beat with a positive growth in key financial metrics.

Guidance

2025 FAD guidance raised above previous estimates, indicating confidence in future performance.

Negative Factors

Occupancy

Bickford's occupancy has also slipped, indicating potential operational challenges.

SSNOI Growth

SHOP SSNOI growth was below expectations, impacted by seasonal occupancy declines.

National Health Investors (NHI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.38B

Dividend Yield4.97%

Average Volume (3M)223.95K

Price to Earnings (P/E)23.0

Beta (1Y)0.45

Revenue Growth7.44%

EPS Growth4.23%

CountryUS

Employees30

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength69

IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.74

Shares Outstanding46,693,672

10 Day Avg. Volume200,305

30 Day Avg. Volume223,946

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio19.11

Price to Book (P/B)2.41

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.85

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.53

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.18

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.24

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$83.25

Price Target Upside13.36% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

National Health Investors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIncorporated in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc. (NYSE: NHI) is a real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint-venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical investments. NHI's portfolio consists of independent, assisted and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, skilled nursing facilities, medical office buildings and specialty hospitals.

How the Company Makes MoneyNHI generates revenue primarily through lease agreements with healthcare operators who manage the properties in its portfolio. These leases are typically structured as triple-net leases, where the tenant is responsible for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, providing a stable and predictable cash flow for NHI. The company's income is primarily derived from rental income paid by its tenants, which include senior living communities, skilled nursing facilities, and medical office buildings. Additionally, NHI may earn income from mortgage interest and fees associated with the financing of healthcare facilities. Strategic partnerships with reputable operators and a focus on high-demand healthcare sectors contribute significantly to its profitability.

National Health Investors Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -3.42%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment with strong financial performance and significant investment activity outweighing concerns about specific transaction costs and SHOP segment performance. The company demonstrated robust acquisition momentum and financial health, although some headwinds remain in certain segments.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to 2025

First quarter results exceeded expectations due to faster acquisitions and better-than-expected cash rent collections. Normalized FFO guidance midpoint increased by $0.08 per share to $4.71, representing a 6.1% year-over-year growth.

Significant Investments

Announced investments of $174.9 million year-to-date, with an active pipeline of approximately $264 million, indicating strong acquisition momentum.

SHOP Portfolio Growth

Progress made on transitioning a portfolio of six properties to a new RIDEA partnership, with expected NOI growth of 12% to 15% for the year.

Solid Financial Performance

Net income per diluted common share increased by 4.2% to $0.74, and normalized FFO per diluted common share increased by 2.7% to $1.15 compared to the prior year period.

Healthy Balance Sheet

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is 4.1x, with $135 million in cash and strong liquidity to support the investment pipeline.

Negative Updates

Transaction Costs

Recorded a $1.2 million charge in transaction costs for a large SHOP portfolio that was ultimately not pursued, impacting net income and FFO metrics.

SHOP Performance Concerns

First quarter SHOP NOI growth was only 4.9% year-over-year, attributed to seasonality and incentives, leading to concerns about meeting full-year growth targets.

SLM Portfolio Challenges

Legacy SLM portfolio largely repositioned, with $2.5 million partial loan repayment, indicating ongoing challenges in this segment.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter 2025 earnings call for National Health Investors (NHI), the company provided several key metrics and updates. NHI raised its normalized Funds From Operations (FFO) guidance midpoint by $0.08 per share to $4.71, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.1%. The company has announced $174.9 million in investments so far in 2025 and is actively pursuing a pipeline worth approximately $264 million. They expect the total investments for the year to surpass the previous year's total of $237.5 million. NHI is maintaining its outlook for a 12% to 15% growth in Net Operating Income (NOI) from its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP). The company also reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in SHOP NOI for the quarter, with resident fees up 5.2% and occupancy improving by 390 basis points to 89.2%. Additionally, FFO per diluted common share increased by 2.7% to $1.15, while Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) grew by 9.9% to $56 million. The company announced a $0.90 per share dividend for the second quarter and highlighted a strong balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.1x.

National Health Investors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Health Investors shows solid financial performance with strong profitability margins and efficient cash flow management. Revenue and profit growth are consistent, and the balance sheet is stable. However, the moderately high leverage, typical in the REIT industry, requires careful management to mitigate financial risk.

Income Statement

Positive

The company's gross profit margin remains strong, hovering around 96.7% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin increased to approximately 41.2% in TTM, demonstrating improved profitability. Revenue growth has been consistent, with a TTM increase to $342.97 million from $335.18 million in the prior annual period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, reflecting healthy operational performance. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to earlier periods, suggesting potential saturation.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.89 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage for a REIT. The return on equity improved to nearly 9.9% in TTM, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable at about 51.2%, reflecting a solid capital structure. While the debt level is significant, the company maintains a favorable equity position, balancing risk and potential returns.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

The company demonstrates a strong cash flow position with a consistent rise in free cash flow, up 2.8% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.51, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.48, underscoring the firm's capacity to generate cash above net earnings. Overall, cash flow management is a significant strength.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
342.96M	335.18M	319.83M	278.19M	298.71M	332.81M
	Gross Profit
331.65M	324.02M	308.32M	268.41M	287.08M	323.16M
	EBIT
186.46M	183.86M	178.79M	81.11M	132.19M	220.80M
	EBITDA
268.28M	264.16M	259.94M	151.99M	212.99M	303.95M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
141.20M	137.99M	135.65M	23.06M	62.19M	135.37M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.36M	24.29M	22.35M	19.29M	37.41M	43.34M
	Total Assets
2.48B	2.61B	2.49B	2.51B	2.84B	3.12B
	Total Debt
1.14B	1.15B	1.14B	1.15B	1.25B	1.51B
	Net Debt
1.13B	1.12B	1.11B	1.13B	1.21B	1.47B
	Total Liabilities
1.21B	1.23B	1.21B	1.22B	1.32B	1.60B
	Stockholders Equity
1.25B	1.37B	1.25B	1.27B	1.51B	1.51B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
209.35M	203.70M	180.71M	180.71M	210.79M	218.29M
	Operating Cash Flow
213.42M	207.77M	184.45M	185.34M	210.86M	232.15M
	Investing Cash Flow
-251.59M	-192.31M	-11.63M	197.94M	185.28M	-89.71M
	Financing Cash Flow
162.12M	-13.57M	-169.72M	-401.25M	-402.99M	-111.76M

National Health Investors Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price73.44

Price Trends

50DMA

74.15

Negative

100DMA

71.47

Positive

200DMA

73.49

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.32

Positive

RSI

45.88

Neutral

STOCH

20.78

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 73.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.87, below the 50-day MA of 74.15, and below the 200-day MA of 73.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NHI.

National Health Investors Risk Analysis

National Health Investors disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Health Investors reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

In case of our bankruptcy or insolvency, any forward sale agreement then in effect will automatically terminate, and we would not receive the expected proceeds from such forward sale of shares of our common stock. Q4, 2024

Settlement provisions contained in the August 2024 forward sale agreements, the ATM forward sale agreements or any other forward sale agreement we may enter into could result in substantial dilution to our earnings per share or result in substantial cash payment obligations. Q4, 2024

We may in the future enter into additional forward sale agreements that subject us to risks similar to those described above. Q4, 2024

National Health Investors Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTRE	80 Outperform	$5.59B	31.78	7.02%	4.21%	43.27%	80.97%
NHI	76 Outperform	$3.38B	23.00	10.56%	4.97%	7.44%	4.23%
SBRA	76 Outperform	$4.15B	29.52	5.15%	6.88%	7.81%	179.16%
LTC	72 Outperform	$1.64B	18.38	9.39%	6.46%	4.46%	2.24%
AHR	72 Outperform	$5.54B	―	-1.93%	2.91%	11.66%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.76B	10.59	0.51%	8507.90%	5.51%	-19.44%
MPW	44 Neutral	$2.75B	―	-28.86%	8.52%	19.56%	-12.73%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NHI

National Health Investors

73.44

11.78

19.10%

LTC

LTC Properties

35.67

3.74

11.71%

SBRA

Sabra Healthcare REIT

17.60

4.30

32.33%

MPW

Medical Properties

4.68

-0.05

-1.06%

CTRE

CareTrust REIT

29.16

5.03

20.85%

AHR

American Healthcare REIT, Inc.

34.97

21.51

159.81%

National Health Investors Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

National Health Investors Releases Investor Update Presentation

Neutral

May 5, 2025

On May 5, 2025, National Health Investors, Inc. released an investor update presentation available on their website. The update provides insights into the company’s financial strategies and operational plans, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties that could impact future performance, such as tenant financial health, regulatory changes, and economic conditions.

Financial Disclosures

National Health Investors Releases Q1 2025 Financial Update

Neutral

May 5, 2025

National Health Investors has released its Supplemental Information for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. This release provides stakeholders with updated financial data and insights into the company’s performance, which may influence their understanding of the company’s current market position and future prospects.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.