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National Health Investors (NHI) AI Stock Analysis

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NHI

National Health Investors

(NYSE:NHI)

Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:$82.00▲(22.32% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/11/26

The score is driven primarily by healthy financial performance (revenue growth and strong free-cash-flow generation), reinforced by a generally positive earnings update highlighting improved liquidity and a higher dividend. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum and a valuation that looks fair rather than discounted, plus investor caution around volatility in reported margins and the large reported swing in debt levels.

Positive Factors
Cash generationConsistent, high cash conversion and rising free cash flow (FCF ~$192M–$235M in recent years; TTM FCF up ~4%) underpin durable ability to fund dividends, reinvest in assets, and service financing. Strong OCF/FCF reduces reliance on equity issuance and supports long‑term capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Debt reporting discontinuityA large step‑change in reported debt undermines trend comparability and raises questions on accounting or balance‑sheet presentation after the NHC sale. Investors need clarity to assess sustainable leverage, covenant headroom and refinancing risk given historical debt‑to‑equity around 0.76–0.91.

National Health Investors (NHI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%NHI-6.02%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$3.29B
Dividend Yield
5.52%
Average Volume (3M)
338.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
19.3
Beta (1Y)
0.15
Revenue Growth
23.77%
EPS Growth
10.04%
Country
US
Employees
32
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
REIT - Healthcare Facilities

National Health Investors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Established in 1991, National Health Investors, Inc. (NYSE: NHI) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily focused on providing capital for senior living and medical real estate assets. The company facilitates this through diverse f...

How the Company Makes Money

NHI makes money primarily by earning contractual real-estate income and financing income from healthcare operators. 1) Rental and lease revenue (primary): NHI acquires healthcare-related properties and leases them to third-party operators. Under thes...

National Health Investors Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 09, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-8.30%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 08, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a largely positive strategic and financial picture driven by the transformative NHC sale (material gain and strong liquidity), rapid expansion of the SHOP platform (137% increase to ~$850M) and significant SHOP NOI growth in aggregate (188.5% YoY). Management enhancements (new COO, CFO) and a dividend increase further reinforce confidence. However, near-term operational and earnings challenges persist: same-store SHOP performance showed YoY weakness, normalized FFO declined modestly, G&A and interest costs rose, and some SHOP properties face occupancy and operational pressures. The acquisition market is competitive with compressed yields, creating underwriting pressure. Overall, the positives (balance sheet strength, liquidity, SHOP scale-up, sequential operational improvement and active pipeline) outweigh the near-term headwinds, but execution will be critical to realize the anticipated long-term benefits.

Positive Updates

NHC Portfolio Sale Strengthens Balance Sheet
Completed sale of the NHC portfolio on July 1 for $560.0M in cash; expect to recognize an approximately $541.6M gain in Q3 2026. Approximately $221M of proceeds were used for replacement properties under reverse 1031 exchanges; ~$334M is being held for future tax-deferred reinvestment under Section 1031, materially increasing liquidity.

Negative Updates

Same-Store SHOP Year-Over-Year Weakness
Same-store NOI for legacy Holiday properties declined 6.3% YoY, and overall same-store SHOP performance remains challenged year-to-date despite sequential improvement; full-year guidance for same-store SHOP NOI remains a modest 1%–3%.

Company Guidance

NHI left its full‑year SHOP outlook unchanged, maintaining same‑store SHOP NOI growth guidance of 1%–3% (which management said implies roughly 8%–9% growth in H2), and reiterated that newer SHOP investments should drive high‑single to low‑double‑digit NOI growth; Q2 SHOP NOI rose 188.5% YoY to $11.0M, SHOP investment has increased 137% to ≈$850M (24% of the company), year‑to‑date investments were $237.2M at a 7.7% average yield (>$212M in SHOP), with ~$127.3M of signed LOIs (initial yield 6.8%, 6.5% after maintenance CapEx) and ~ $420M under evaluation. Key financial and balance‑sheet metrics cited: Q2 net income per share $1.15 (+45.6%), NAREIT/normalized FFO $1.19 (flat / -2.5%), FAD $61.6M (+5.8%), cash rental income +2.8% YoY, Q2 G&A $8.8M (+44%) with cash G&A guidance up low‑teens YoY, EBITDARM coverages (12 months ended 3/31/26) senior housing 1.62 and SNF 2.66, net debt/adjusted EBITDA 4.1x (policy 3.5–4.5x), available liquidity ≈$792.4M ($262M excess revolver + $500M ATM/cash), July NHC sale proceeds $560M (expected Q3 gain ≈$541.6M) with ~$221M used for 1031 replacements and ~$334M held for reinvestment, and a dividend increase of $0.02 to $0.94 per share.

National Health Investors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid overall, supported by constructive revenue growth (TTM up 7.6% vs. 2025) and strong cash generation with rising free cash flow and good earnings-to-cash conversion. The main offsets are volatility in profitability metrics and a major balance-sheet discontinuity (reported debt dropping from ~$1.16B in 2025 to zero in TTM) that reduces confidence in period-to-period comparability.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

82Very Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue433.57M378.53M335.18M319.83M278.19M298.71M
Gross Profit243.90M138.93M324.02M308.32M268.41M287.08M
EBITDA316.00M282.00M264.16M259.87M178.73M240.94M
Net Income166.80M142.18M137.99M135.65M66.40M111.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.96B2.80B2.61B2.49B2.51B2.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments30.39M19.62M24.29M22.35M19.29M37.41M
Total Debt1.28B1.16B1.15B1.14B1.15B1.25B
Total Liabilities1.38B1.26B1.23B1.21B1.22B1.32B
Stockholders Equity1.57B1.52B1.37B1.25B1.27B1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow235.71M220.26M192.44M180.71M180.71M210.79M
Operating Cash Flow250.87M240.23M208.17M184.45M185.34M210.86M
Investing Cash Flow-292.70M-271.07M-191.55M-11.63M197.94M185.28M
Financing Cash Flow73.40M23.96M-14.74M-169.72M-401.25M-402.99M

National Health Investors Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price67.04

Price Trends

50DMA67.57Negative
100DMA70.83Negative
200DMA74.65Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.12Negative
RSI52.58Neutral
STOCH54.66Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 67.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.80, below the 50-day MA of 67.57, and below the 200-day MA of 74.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NHI.

National Health Investors Risk Analysis

National Health Investors disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Health Investors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.There have been no material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed in “Part I, Item 1A, Risk Factors” of our Annual Report, except as noted below: We may not be able to successfully redeploy the net proceeds from the sale of the NHC properties in a manner that generates comparable returns. Our ability to effectively redeploy the proceeds received in the sale of the NHC properties will depend on a number of factors, including the availability of suitable investment opportunities, prevailing market conditions, competition from other investors and our cost of capital at the time of reinvestment. There can be no assurance that we will be able to identify and acquire assets or make investments that generate returns comparable to the returns generated by the properties being sold, which may impact our results of operations.Q2, 2026

National Health Investors Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

NHI against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CTRECTRE80Outperform$8.60B22.608.54%4.14%53.07%32.48%
LTCLTC80Outperform$2.41B15.8712.28%5.09%59.94%49.34%
OHIOHI80Outperform$14.24B16.2616.51%5.73%15.18%72.69%
NHINHI71Outperform$3.29B19.3210.96%5.52%23.77%10.04%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
SBRASBRA65Neutral$5.04B74.772.34%6.08%18.43%-65.50%
STRWSTRW65Neutral$710.14M19.8372.36%5.20%18.27%6.18%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-10%0%10%20%30%NHILTCOHISBRACTRESTRWDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
NHI and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
NHINational Health Investors67.04-4.09-5.74%
LTCLtc Properties44.7511.4034.17%
OHIOmega Healthcare Investors46.986.7616.80%
SBRASabra Healthcare Reit19.742.9017.21%
CTRECareTrust REIT36.392.477.27%
STRWStrawberry Fields REIT Inc12.691.7015.42%

National Health Investors Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

National Health Investors Provides Supplemental Q2 2026 Portfolio Update

Neutral
Aug 10, 2026

National Health Investors released unaudited supplemental information for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, detailing portfolio composition, segment performance and capitalization for its senior housing and medical facility investments. The filing hig...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

National Health Investors Issues Investor Update and Disclosure

Neutral
Aug 10, 2026

On August 10, 2026, National Health Investors, Inc. furnished an investor presentation and issued a related press release to update the market on its business. The materials, made available through the company’s investor website, form part of N...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

National Health Investors Appoints First Chief Operating Officer

Positive
Jul 27, 2026

National Health Investors, Inc. announced on July 27, 2026, that its board had appointed industry veteran Christian (Chris) Maingot as the company’s first Chief Operating Officer, following the July 22, 2026 board decision. Maingot brings more...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

National Health Investors Completes Major Senior Care Asset Sale

Positive
Jul 1, 2026

On July 1, 2026, National Health Investors completed the sale of 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities, including related land and improvements, to NHC/OP, L.P. and affiliated entities for a total price of $560 million...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

National Health Investors Implements Executive Change-in-Control Protections

Neutral
Jul 1, 2026

On July 1, 2026, National Health Investors, Inc. entered into a Change in Control Severance Agreement with executive Todd Siefert, effective the same day, that defines his compensation and benefits if his employment is terminated without cause or for...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

National Health Investors Advances Sale of Senior Care Portfolio

Positive
Jun 1, 2026

National Health Investors, Inc. has agreed to sell 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities, including the underlying land and improvements, to NHC/OP, L.P., a wholly owned subsidiary of National HealthCare Corporation, u...

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

National Health Investors Holds 2026 Annual Meeting, Elects Board

Positive
May 29, 2026

National Health Investors, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 27, 2026, with approximately 87.46% of eligible shares represented, establishing a quorum. All nominated directors, including Robert W. Chapin, Jr., Tracy M.J. Colden...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 11, 2026