Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.94B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 5.57%
• EPS Growth: 141.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 41,700
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Travel Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 446,806,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,243,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,517,580
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 74.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.04
• 1Y Price Target: $23.61
• Price Target Upside: 27.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(7.82%Upside)

The most significant factor is the company's financial recovery, though high leverage and cash flow issues remain concerning. Positive contributions from valuation and a strong earnings call sentiment bolster the score. Technical analysis offers mixed signals, moderating the overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Demand and Pricing

Management described a return to 'business as usual' regarding booking patterns, with improved visibility into demand and pricing.

Demographics and Demand

NCLH has favorable demographics, as each brand targets the high-end consumer, contributing to a favorable risk/reward setup.

Negative Factors

Booking Softness

Management noted a ‘softening’ in its 12-month forward booked position amidst ongoing macro volatility.

Occupancy Challenges

There is a headwind to occupancy in the third quarter due to softness experienced in European 9-day itineraries.

Norwegian Cruise Line Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. It offers itineraries ranging from three days to a 180-days calling on various locations, including destinations in Scandinavia, Russia, the Mediterranean, the Greek Isles, Alaska, Canada and New England, Hawaii, Asia, Tahiti and the South Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, Africa, India, South America, the Panama Canal, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 28 ships with approximately 59,150 berths. It distributes its products through retail/travel advisor and onboard cruise sales channels, as well as meetings, incentives, and charters. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generates revenue primarily through passenger ticket sales and onboard services. Ticket sales account for a significant portion of the company's income, with pricing varying based on the length of the cruise, the destination, and the type of accommodation chosen by guests. Onboard services contribute substantially to revenue, encompassing a wide array of offerings such as specialty dining, beverage packages, shore excursions, and onboard entertainment. Additionally, NCLH partners with various travel agencies and online travel platforms to broaden its market reach and drive bookings. The company's earnings are also influenced by factors such as occupancy rates, fleet optimization, and strategic deployment of ships across high-demand routes.

Norwegian Cruise Line Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Norwegian Cruise Line has shown strong profitability recovery with improved margins, but faces high leverage risks and negative free cash flow. Though revenue growth is evident, past volatility and cash flow issues remain concerns for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Norwegian Cruise Line shows a substantial recovery in revenue and profitability metrics. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 38.2%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin has improved to 9.1%, showcasing a positive turnaround from previous losses. Revenue growth is evident, although there was a slight decline of 0.67% from 2024 to the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 15.5% and 20.9% respectively, indicating good profitability. However, the slight revenue decline and past years' volatility still pose some risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a challenging picture with a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 9.88, indicating substantial leverage which could pose financial risks. The return on equity for the TTM is a strong 60.2%, driven by improved net income, but this is partly due to low equity. The equity ratio is a low 6.6%, reflecting limited shareholder equity in proportion to assets. Despite the strong ROE, the high leverage remains a concern for long-term stability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows improvement in operating cash flow, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.25, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, free cash flow has declined significantly, showing a negative free cash flow to net income ratio, as capital expenditures outpace cash generated from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, which is a concern for cash sustainability and future investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
9.42B	9.48B	8.55B	4.84B	647.99M	1.28B
	Gross Profit
3.60B	3.79B	3.08B	576.67M	-960.05M	-413.15M
	EBIT
1.46B	1.47B	930.91M	-1.55B	-2.55B	-3.48B
	EBITDA
1.96B	2.45B	1.75B	-729.94M	-1.79B	-2.80B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
852.61M	910.26M	166.18M	-2.27B	-4.51B	-4.01B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
184.36M	190.76M	402.42M	946.99M	1.75B	3.30B
	Total Assets
21.35B	19.97B	19.49B	18.56B	18.73B	18.40B
	Total Debt
13.99B	13.10B	14.73B	13.62B	12.45B	11.81B
	Net Debt
13.81B	12.91B	14.32B	12.67B	10.94B	8.51B
	Total Liabilities
19.94B	18.54B	19.19B	18.49B	16.30B	14.05B
	Stockholders Equity
1.42B	1.43B	300.81M	68.59M	2.43B	4.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-555.45M	838.87M	-744.65M	-1.57B	-3.22B	-3.50B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.92B	2.05B	2.01B	210.02M	-2.47B	-2.56B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.51B	-1.23B	-2.90B	-1.76B	-1.00B	-975.36M
	Financing Cash Flow
209.06M	-1.03B	346.86M	986.22M	1.68B	6.58B

Norwegian Cruise Line Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCLH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.33, above the 50-day MA of 17.64, and below the 200-day MA of 22.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCLH.

Norwegian Cruise Line Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	79 Outperform	$84.90B	34.10	32.06%	―	9.68%	-47.83%
RCL	75 Outperform	$70.08B	21.68	49.55%	1.16%	13.66%	49.86%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$10.84B	116.97	8.33%	―	28.51%	367.34%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$21.06B	19.51	119.16%	0.97%	5.57%	61.19%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$39.37B	17.53	12.49%	0.47%	16.23%	56.05%
NCLH	63 Neutral	$7.94B	10.84	95.87%	―	5.57%	141.01%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%

Norwegian Cruise Line Corporate Events

Norwegian Cruise Line Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On June 12, 2025, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. held its annual general meeting of shareholders in Miami, Florida, where four key proposals were voted on. Shareholders elected three directors to serve until 2028, approved executive compensation on a non-binding basis, amended the 2013 Performance Incentive Plan to increase available shares, and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCLH) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norwegian Cruise Line stock, see the NCLH Stock Forecast page.

Norwegian Cruise Line Expands Board, Appoints New Director

On May 7, 2025, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members, appointing Ms. Linda P. Jojo as an independent director. Ms. Jojo will also serve on the Technology, Environmental, Safety and Security Committee and receive compensation in cash and restricted share units, with an option to convert cash retainers to RSUs starting in 2026.