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Norwegian Cruise Line
(NYSE:NCLH)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(10.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improved operating performance but constrained by elevated leverage and negative TTM free cash flow. Technicals are supportive but appear overbought, while valuation looks reasonable on a ~10x P/E. The latest call was net positive (Q3 beat, higher 2026 guidance, sizable savings), though near-term yield pressure and leverage remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Improving profitability
The return from deep losses to solid profitability shows that demand recovery, occupancy and onboard spending are translating into operating earnings. This stronger earnings base can support reinvestment and debt service, although continued execution is needed to sustain margins through the cruise cycle.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
The debt-heavy capital structure leaves NCLH more exposed to interest costs, refinancing requirements and downturns in cruise demand. High leverage also restricts financial flexibility, making it harder to fund growth, absorb volatility or accelerate balance-sheet repair from internally generated resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving profitability
The return from deep losses to solid profitability shows that demand recovery, occupancy and onboard spending are translating into operating earnings. This stronger earnings base can support reinvestment and debt service, although continued execution is needed to sustain margins through the cruise cycle.
Read all positive factors
Norwegian Cruise Line Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)20.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth4.85%
EPS Growth22.30%
CountryUS
Employees44,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.81
Shares Outstanding459,187,840
10 Day Avg. Volume17,594,470
30 Day Avg. Volume20,297,881
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)4.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio-8.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.59Price Target Upside7.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)1.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.06B
Norwegian Cruise Line Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages...
How the Company Makes Money
NCLH primarily generates revenue by selling cruise vacations and related onboard products and services across its three brands. Its revenue model is typically organized into (1) passenger ticket revenue and (2) onboard and other revenue.
1) Passe...
Norwegian Cruise Line Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly optimistic, with management emphasizing a better-than-expected third quarter, raised full-year 2026 guidance, substantial identified savings, strong demand for new experiences, improved liquidity, and expectations for positive net yield growth in 2027. The company still faces declining current-year yields, weaker first-half 2027 bookings, elevated capital expenditures, high leverage, and a turnaround whose benefits will take time to materialize.Positive Updates
Third-Quarter Results Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $937 million, exceeding guidance by $63 million, while adjusted EPS was $1.12, $0.22 above guidance. Results were driven by better-than-expected revenue performance and continued cost discipline.
Negative Updates
Third-Quarter Net Yield Declined
Net yield declined 6.7% on a constant currency basis. Management said the stronger close-in demand primarily reflected pent-up travel demand from consumers who deferred summer vacations and booked closer to departure.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Third-Quarter Results Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $937 million, exceeding guidance by $63 million, while adjusted EPS was $1.12, $0.22 above guidance. Results were driven by better-than-expected revenue performance and continued cost discipline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, the company expects net yield to decline approximately 6.5% on a constant currency basis, adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel per capacity day to increase approximately 1.7% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA to come in at approximately $414 million and adjusted EPS to be negative $0.12; for the full year, it expects net yield to decline approximately 4.4% on a constant currency basis, adjusted net cruise cost, excluding fuel per capacity day to decline approximately 0.4%, adjusted EBITDA of $2.55 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.70. For 2027, full year net yield growth is expected to be 1% to 2% with a meaningful acceleration in the second half of the year, with overall load factor increases expected, while the company expects to continue strong discipline in 2027 on unit costs; identified annualized savings and cash benefits total approximately $325 million in 2026 and over $600 million to date, including an additional $100 million that will phase in through 2028, gross new build capital expenditures are expected to decline by about $1 billion each year in 2028 and 2029, and occupancy is expected to clearly get back to 110 and above.Norwegian Cruise Line Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.16B | 9.83B | 9.48B | 8.55B | 4.84B | 647.99M |
| Gross Profit | 4.21B | 3.14B | 3.79B | 3.08B | 576.67M | -960.05M |
| EBITDA | 2.68B | 3.82B | 2.49B | 1.77B | -665.14M | -1.67B |
| Net Income | 832.94M | 423.25M | 910.26M | 166.18M | -2.27B | -4.51B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.01B | 22.54B | 19.97B | 19.49B | 18.56B | 18.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 256.51M | 209.89M | 190.76M | 402.42M | 946.99M | 1.75B |
| Total Debt | 15.09B | 14.61B | 13.92B | 14.06B | 13.62B | 12.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 20.86B | 20.33B | 18.54B | 19.19B | 18.49B | 16.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.15B | 2.21B | 1.43B | 300.81M | 68.59M | 2.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -530.68M | -1.17B | 838.87M | -744.65M | -1.57B | -3.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.20B | 2.09B | 2.05B | 2.01B | 210.02M | -2.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.63B | -3.26B | -1.23B | -2.90B | -1.76B | -1.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 582.08M | 1.19B | -1.03B | 346.86M | 986.22M | 1.68B |
Norwegian Cruise Line Technical Analysis
Positive
17.26
Price Trends
15.37
Positive
17.48
Positive
18.72
Negative
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
73.86
Negative
87.89
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCLH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.50, above the 50-day MA of 15.37, and below the 200-day MA of 18.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.86 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCLH.
Norwegian Cruise Line Risk Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Norwegian Cruise Line reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Norwegian Cruise Line Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $33.93B | 16.95 | 184.84% | 0.65% | 12.00% | 92.75% | |
73 Outperform | $83.06B | 18.33 | 43.55% | 1.77% | 9.73% | 12.93% | |
72 Outperform | $24.76B | 6.89 | 14.59% | 0.45% | 18.08% | 35.16% | |
62 Neutral | $39.99B | 29.55 | 117.49% | ― | 20.02% | 62.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $8.37B | 10.07 | 32.15% | ― | 4.85% | 22.30% | |
52 Neutral | $4.04B | 122.72 | -12.96% | ― | 5.49% | -35.47% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line
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Norwegian Cruise Line Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Norwegian Cruise Line Announces CFO Transition and Succession
Neutral
Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. announced that long-serving Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mark A. Kempa will step down from his CFO role at the end of December 31, 2026 and serve as Special Advisor t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Norwegian Cruise Line Completes Major Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On October 15, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd., a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, completed a $950 million private offering of 8.750% senior notes due 2031, generating net proceeds of about $941.7 million. The funds, together with cash on...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Norwegian Cruise Line Raises Q3 Outlook, Reaffirms 2026
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings said it expects its third-quarter 2026 results to come in above the guidance issued with its second-quarter 2026 earnings, citing stronger-than-anticipated revenue performance. The company simultaneously reaffirmed i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.