Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
NYSE:NCLH
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Norwegian Cruise Line
(NYSE:NCLH)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▼(-11.86% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
The score is mainly held back by high leverage and inconsistent free cash flow despite clear post-downturn operating recovery. Technicals are mixed-to-weak on intermediate trends, while valuation is reasonable and recent corporate actions modestly improve the outlook via governance changes and reduced dilution.
Positive Factors
Post-downturn profit recovery
Normalization to positive operating profit and improved gross margin indicates durable demand recovery and better unit economics. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in itineraries and onboard products, helps cover fixed ship costs, and underpins longer-term margin stability if demand persists.
Negative Factors
High leverage burden
Debt-to-equity of roughly 6.6x leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility for a cyclical travel operator. High leverage increases refinancing, interest and liquidity risk, constraining capacity to absorb demand shocks and limiting strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Post-downturn profit recovery
Normalization to positive operating profit and improved gross margin indicates durable demand recovery and better unit economics. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in itineraries and onboard products, helps cover fixed ship costs, and underpins longer-term margin stability if demand persists.
Read all positive factors
Norwegian Cruise Line Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.1
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth6.53%
EPS Growth-35.30%
CountryUS
Employees41,700
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.26
Shares Outstanding459,110,140
10 Day Avg. Volume22,046,429
30 Day Avg. Volume24,257,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)4.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio-8.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.59Price Target Upside-1.91% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)1.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.16B
Norwegian Cruise Line Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Se...
How the Company Makes Money
NCLH primarily makes money by selling cruise vacations and related onboard and travel services. Its revenue model is typically grouped into (1) passenger ticket revenue and (2) onboard and other revenue. Passenger ticket revenue comes from fares p...
Norwegian Cruise Line Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of clear operational and financial progress (Q4 and FY2025 EBITDA, margin and EPS gains, cost discipline, strong luxury bookings, strategic fleet orders, and positive early results from Great Stirrup Cay) alongside meaningful near-term challenges driven by execution missteps, a premature 40% capacity increase in the Caribbean, behind-curve bookings, and revised 2026 top-line guidance (Q1 yield decline and full-year yields roughly flat). Management has refreshed leadership, is prioritizing revenue management and technology investment, and expects cost discipline to continue, but acknowledged that meaningful top-line recovery will take time to materialize given booking lead times. On balance, positive historical results and structural fixes are counterbalanced by material short-term execution and guidance headwinds, so the overall tone is cautious and focused on a multi-quarter turnaround.Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Outperformance and Strong Q4 Metrics
Q4 net yields grew 3.8%; adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel per capacity day was $158 (up only 0.2%); adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $564,000,000; adjusted net income was $130,000,000 and adjusted EPS was $0.28 (note: excludes an ~ $95,000,000 / $0.20 IT-related write-off).
Negative Updates
Execution Missteps and Siloed Organizational Issues
Management identified significant execution failures and a siloed culture that produced poor coordination across deployment, pricing, marketing and revenue management—cited as the primary cause of recent underperformance and the need for rapid reorganization and accountability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fourth Quarter Outperformance and Strong Q4 Metrics
Q4 net yields grew 3.8%; adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel per capacity day was $158 (up only 0.2%); adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $564,000,000; adjusted net income was $130,000,000 and adjusted EPS was $0.28 (note: excludes an ~ $95,000,000 / $0.20 IT-related write-off).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net yields to be down ~1.6% in Q1, stabilize and modestly improve by ~0.6% in the balance of the year (bringing full-year net yields to approximately flat), with Q1 adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel down ~0.8%, unit costs up ~1.4% over the remaining nine months and ~0.9% for the full year; first-quarter adjusted operational EBITDA margin is expected to be ~29.1% (versus 28.4% in 2025) with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of ~$515M, full-year adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.95B (up ~8%), Q1 adjusted EPS of ~$0.16 and full-year adjusted EPS of ~$2.38 (up ~13%), while net leverage is expected to remain roughly flat at ~5.2x (temporarily ~+0.25 turn from deliveries of Norwegian Luna and Seven Seas Prestige), fuel is ~51% hedged for 2026 (27% for 2027), and the company reiterated its $300M+ cost-savings program and the expectation that cost discipline will keep unit cost growth well below inflation.Norwegian Cruise Line Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.03B | 9.83B | 9.48B | 8.55B | 4.84B | 647.99M |
| Gross Profit | 4.32B | 3.14B | 3.79B | 3.08B | 576.67M | -960.05M |
| EBITDA | 2.38B | 2.74B | 2.49B | 1.77B | -665.14M | -1.67B |
| Net Income | 568.21M | 423.25M | 910.26M | 166.18M | -2.27B | -4.51B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.79B | 22.54B | 19.97B | 19.49B | 18.56B | 18.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.05M | 209.89M | 190.76M | 402.42M | 946.99M | 1.75B |
| Total Debt | 15.15B | 14.61B | 13.92B | 14.06B | 13.62B | 12.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.36B | 20.33B | 18.54B | 19.19B | 18.49B | 16.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 2.21B | 1.43B | 300.81M | 68.59M | 2.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -949.08M | -1.17B | 838.87M | -744.65M | -1.57B | -3.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.22B | 2.09B | 2.05B | 2.01B | 210.02M | -2.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.17B | -3.26B | -1.23B | -2.90B | -1.76B | -1.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 950.98M | 1.19B | -1.03B | 346.86M | 986.22M | 1.68B |
Norwegian Cruise Line Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.99
Price Trends
18.20
Positive
20.01
Negative
21.25
Negative
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
58.50
Neutral
80.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCLH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.01, above the 50-day MA of 18.20, and below the 200-day MA of 21.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NCLH.
Norwegian Cruise Line Risk Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Norwegian Cruise Line reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Norwegian Cruise Line Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $40.09B | 33.46 | 146.91% | ― | 20.78% | 119.41% | |
69 Neutral | $75.09B | 16.86 | 45.86% | 1.09% | 9.74% | 34.02% | |
67 Neutral | $27.47B | 18.74 | 147.58% | 0.56% | 10.01% | 33.63% | |
66 Neutral | $31.10B | 6.70 | 21.02% | 0.39% | 17.27% | 94.65% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $8.61B | 15.07 | 27.04% | ― | 6.53% | -35.30% | |
55 Neutral | $4.18B | 82.66 | -38.21% | ― | 6.71% | -41.74% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Norwegian Cruise Line Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Norwegian Cruise Line Shifts Exchangeable Notes to Cash Settlement
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd., a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., elected to irrevocably fix the settlement method to cash settlement for all exchanges of its 1.125% and 2.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027, effective...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Norwegian Cruise Line Overhauls Board in Elliott-Backed Deal
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26 and 27, 2026, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings entered into a cooperation agreement with Elliott Investment Management and launched a broad board overhaul that will take effect on March 31, 2026. The company appointed five new independen...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Norwegian Cruise Line Details New CEO Compensation Package
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings announced on March 27, 2026, that it entered into an employment agreement and a substantial restricted share unit award agreement with President and CEO John W. Chidsey, following his appointment on February 12, 2026...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Norwegian Cruise Line Sets Date for 2026 Annual Meeting
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. has set June 11, 2026 as the date for its 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, with April 15, 2026 designated as the record date to determine which shareholders are entitled to receive notice and vote. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.