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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$57.00
â–²(10.66% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/22/26
NBTB scores 74 driven primarily by solid financial performance and a strong, upbeat earnings update (profitability, efficiency, and margin expansion outlook). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and ~3% dividend yield, while the main offsets are mixed near-term technical momentum and some operational watch-items (deposit volatility, competitive funding/origination pressure, and cash-flow conversion variability).
Positive Factors
Accelerating revenue and profitability
Accelerating revenue and improved operating profitability indicate stronger business momentum across the banking franchise. Although margins have normalized from unusually high earlier levels, the TTM improvement supports durable earnings capacity and provides more resources for growth and capital generation.
Negative Factors
Deposit competition may pressure margins
More aggressive competition for deposits could raise funding costs and limit further net interest margin expansion, even with a currently favorable low-cost deposit base. Persistent pricing pressure would reduce the benefit of loan repricing and could constrain earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating revenue and profitability
Accelerating revenue and improved operating profitability indicate stronger business momentum across the banking franchise. Although margins have normalized from unusually high earlier levels, the TTM improvement supports durable earnings capacity and provides more resources for growth and capital generation.
Read all positive factors
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.61B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)308.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth14.46%
EPS Growth46.91%
CountryUS
Employees2,303
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding51,960,060
10 Day Avg. Volume398,472
30 Day Avg. Volume308,748
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.00Price Target Upside8.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$759.61M
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
NBT Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking operations by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income, while managing operating expenses and credit losses.
1) Net interest income (core revenue driver): The company gathers...
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflected a predominantly positive performance: record net interest income, margin expansion, broad-based loan growth, improved profitability and capital metrics (tangible book up 12.8%, dividend increase, buybacks). Noninterest income growth and expense discipline further reinforced results. The negatives were largely manageable and tactical — seasonal deposit outflows, modest uptick in provisions tied to growth, small drag in wealth fees, competitive pressure in some origination yields and a cautious M&A backdrop. Overall, strengths materially outweigh the headwinds, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income reached a record $137 million (up $3 million QoQ and >10% YoY). Net interest margin expanded to 3.73%, up 14 basis points YoY and 1 basis point QoQ, driven by organic growth in interest-earning assets and lower funding costs.
Negative Updates
Seasonal and Short-Term Deposit Volatility
Deposits declined $106 million from 3/31/2026 due to expected seasonal municipal outflows tied to tax collection/disbursement cycles, highlighting quarter-to-quarter volatility in deposit balances.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income reached a record $137 million (up $3 million QoQ and >10% YoY). Net interest margin expanded to 3.73%, up 14 basis points YoY and 1 basis point QoQ, driven by organic growth in interest-earning assets and lower funding costs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to modest margin expansion over the next few quarters—driven by repricing of commercial and some residential originations and reinvestment of cash flows—after reporting a 3.73% NIM (up 14 bps y/y, +1 bp q/q) and record NII of $137M; loans totaled $11.9B (+$276M since 12/31/25; +2.4% H1), deposits $13.5B, deposit cost 1.33% and cost of funds 1.41% with ~60% of deposits in no/low‑cost checking & savings at a blended cost just under 40 bps. Quarterly operating metrics were strong (net income $53M, $1.20 diluted EPS; operating ROA 1.32%; operating ROTE 15.61%; tangible book $27.71, +12.8% y/y; operating earnings +15% y/y), fee income $49.6M (+5.8% y/y) and noninterest income ~27% of revenues, provisions $6.1M, reserves 1.18% of loans (>2x NPLs), and an efficiency ratio back below 60%; management expects full‑year expense growth around 2.5–3%, $350–400M of securities cash flows over 12 months (supporting higher portfolio yields if rates hold), continued capital accumulation (~$125M/year given a run‑rate EPS ~ $4), an increased quarterly dividend of $0.40 (Q3; +8.1% y/y), and opportunistic share repurchases (318k shares bought H1).NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 945.29M | 867.43M | 785.99M | 662.35M | 537.00M | 494.75M |
| Gross Profit | 723.81M | 625.73M | 554.83M | 492.50M | 497.97M | 484.22M |
| EBITDA | 301.53M | 241.03M | 206.95M | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M |
| Net Income | 214.15M | 169.24M | 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.21B | 16.00B | 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.16M | 185.16M | 420.42M | 1.64B | 1.72B | 2.96B |
| Total Debt | 471.19M | 327.42M | 414.98M | 637.39M | 787.95M | 311.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.27B | 14.10B | 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.90B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 245.61M | 218.92M | 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 151.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 261.66M | 235.22M | 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 159.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -484.18M | 169.07M | -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -547.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.39M | -201.23M | 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Neutral
51.51
Price Trends
51.76
Negative
49.59
Positive
46.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.27
Positive
45.82
Neutral
24.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 51.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.29, below the 50-day MA of 51.76, and above the 200-day MA of 46.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.13B | 13.86 | 11.34% | 3.17% | 7.22% | 17.31% | |
74 Outperform | $2.61B | 12.34 | 11.26% | 2.98% | 14.46% | 46.91% | |
73 Outperform | $1.38B | 7.91 | 19.30% | 2.77% | -13.65% | 120.32% | |
73 Outperform | $2.04B | 12.26 | 10.83% | 2.71% | 4.87% | 25.01% | |
71 Outperform | $2.89B | 9.27 | 11.00% | 4.30% | 3.72% | 35.18% | |
70 Outperform | $2.17B | 14.17 | 8.07% | 5.34% | 14.54% | -6.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
51.53
11.43
28.49%
CBU
Community Bank System
60.69
3.72
6.53%
FCF
First Commonwealth
20.56
4.25
26.03%
NWBI
Northwest Bancshares
15.19
3.43
29.19%
PFS
Provident Financial Services
22.58
3.74
19.84%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
98.89
35.55
56.14%
NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NBT Bancorp expands board, appoints independent director
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 21, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. expanded its Board of Directors to thirteen members and appointed veteran healthcare and finance executive Kimberly A. Boynton as a director, effective October 1, 2026. Boynton, a former President and CEO of...
Business Operations and Strategy
NBT Bancorp Releases New Investor Presentation to Market
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. announced that its executive management team had prepared an investor presentation for use in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The presentation slides were made available to the public on the In...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.