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NBT Bancorp (NBTB)
NASDAQ:NBTB
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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Earnings
Upgrading NBTB to Overweight from Equal-Weight due to strong fundamentals, including a low-cost deposit base and diversified revenue composition.
Growth Opportunities
Investments in semiconductor chip manufacturing plants in Upstate NY provide a favorable growth backdrop for NBTB.
Market Positioning
NBTB's recent dive into M&A enhances its positioning in this 'Chip Corridor' and is a key driver of above-peer EPS growth and profitability.
Profitability
Forecasts indicate a high projected profitability with a ~1.40% ROA in 2026, among the highest on the coverage list.
Negative Factors
Cost Structure
The bank's high-quality deposit book is highlighted by an all-in cost of 2.02%, contributing to its premium multiple valuation.
Valuation
NBTB has a premium valuation for a reason: a peer leading fee income contribution and low-risk credit culture.
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.29B
Dividend Yield3.07%
Average Volume (3M)356.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth12.11%
EPS Growth16.67%
CountryUS
Employees2,083
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength82
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.80
Shares Outstanding52,324,040
10 Day Avg. Volume242,081
30 Day Avg. Volume356,821
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio12.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.50Price Target Upside14.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyNBT Bancorp Inc. generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities and fees from its various banking services. The company's key revenue streams include interest earned on loans and securities, service charges on deposit accounts, trust and investment services, and fees from card services. Interest income is a significant contributor, driven by the net interest margin, which is the difference between interest earned on loans and securities and the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. NBT Bancorp also benefits from non-interest income, which includes fees from financial advisory services, insurance, and other ancillary financial services. The company's strategic partnerships and regional focus help it maintain a strong customer base, driving consistent revenue growth.
NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
NBT Bancorp exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability metrics, supported by a solid balance sheet with decreasing leverage. Cash flows are stable, but there is room for improvement in capital expenditure efficiency. This positions the company well in the competitive banking sector, with a prudent approach to growth and risk management.Income Statement
NBT Bancorp has shown a consistent growth trajectory in revenue over the years. The revenue grew from $490.37M in 2023 to $611.67M in 2024, reflecting a healthy growth rate. Gross profit margin remains robust at 100% due to the banking nature of the business. The net profit margin improved from 24.23% in 2023 to 22.99% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management despite a slight decrease. The EBIT margin has significantly increased, showcasing operational efficiency enhancements.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of NBT Bancorp is strong with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, decreasing from 0.38 in 2023 to 0.13 in 2024, indicating reduced leverage risk. The return on equity (ROE) is solid at 9.21% in 2024, although slightly lower than 2023's 8.33%, reflecting effective use of equity. The equity ratio has slightly decreased, indicating a balanced approach between debt and equity financing.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statements of NBT Bancorp show a stable free cash flow with a slight increase from $148.20M in 2023 to $188.57M in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been modest, suggesting limited efficiency improvements in capital expenditures.74
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 574.44M | 490.37M | 515.12M | 475.97M | 458.66M | Gross Profit |
| 611.67M | 490.37M | 515.12M | 475.97M | 458.66M | EBIT |
| 180.99M | 201.98M | 218.04M | 199.86M | 133.09M | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M | 153.64M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M | 104.39M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.78B | 1.60B | 1.72B | 2.96B | 2.02B | Total Assets |
| 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B | 10.93B | Total Debt |
| 192.59M | 543.74M | 787.95M | 311.48M | 406.73M | Net Debt |
| -12.50M | 338.55M | 590.60M | -957.60M | -265.95M | Total Liabilities |
| 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B | 9.75B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B | 1.19B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 149.90M | 134.25M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 157.63M | 142.41M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -546.06M | -709.73M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M | 1.02B |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Negative
42.30
Price Trends
42.22
Positive
44.57
Negative
45.37
Negative
Market Momentum
0.46
Positive
44.88
Neutral
26.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.27, above the 50-day MA of 42.22, and below the 200-day MA of 45.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Q3, 2024
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.29B | 14.44 | 9.55% | 3.07% | 12.11% | 16.67% | |
70 Outperform | $1.97B | 15.58 | 5.89% | 2.25% | 0.59% | 14.96% | |
67 Neutral | $2.15B | 14.48 | 4.94% | 5.97% | 23.12% | 1092.18% | |
65 Neutral | $2.25B | 18.42 | 13.18% | 1.61% | 14.34% | 16.24% | |
65 Neutral | $2.08B | 16.67 | 8.27% | 1.54% | 3.30% | 14.32% | |
64 Neutral | $12.78B | 9.87 | 7.67% | 17015.06% | 12.34% | -5.99% | |
63 Neutral | $2.18B | 333.67 | 3.28% | 2.59% | -17.36% | -95.37% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
42.30
6.36
17.70%
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
29.91
-0.37
-1.22%
PPBI
Pacific Premier Bancorp
21.22
0.34
1.63%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
73.98
28.46
62.52%
TRMK
Trustmark
34.93
6.15
21.37%
FBK
FB Financial
43.78
6.56
17.62%
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -0.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with improvements in net interest margin, tangible book value, and non-interest income growth. However, there were concerns about a commercial real estate loan write-down and potential delays in CHIPS Act-related projects. The successful integration with Evans Bancorp is seen as a significant positive development.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Net Interest Margin
The net interest margin increased by ten basis points to 3.44% from the linked fourth quarter, primarily driven by the decrease in the cost of interest-bearing deposits.
Record Tangible Book Value Per Share
Tangible book value per share of $24.74 as of March 31st was up $0.86 per share from the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, marking another all-time high for NBT.
Strong Non-Interest Income Growth
Non-interest income made up 31% of total revenues for the quarter, with fee income at $47.6 million, an increase of 12.7% compared to the linked fourth quarter.
Successful Integration Progress with Evans Bancorp
The merger with Evans Bancorp is on track, with the core systems conversion set to complete next weekend. This will add over 200 Evans employees and more than 40,000 customers to NBT.
Increased Revenues
Revenues were up 4.4% from the prior quarter and almost 12% from the first quarter of the prior year, driven by improvements in both net interest income and fee-based revenues.
Negative Updates
Commercial Real Estate Loan Write-Down
Included in the net charge-offs was a $2.1 million write-down of a commercial real estate loan in a non-performing status, charged down to its updated estimated fair value.
Lower Loan Growth Expectations
Loan growth expectations have been adjusted from a three to five percent growth rate to two to three percent due to macroeconomic uncertainties and a slow start in the first quarter.
Potential Delays in CHIPS Act Projects
Questions about the timing and commitment of the CHIPS Act funding could impact the start dates for projects like Micron's planned complex outside of Syracuse.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. reported notable financial metrics, reflecting a solid operating performance. The operating return on assets was 1.11%, and the return on equity stood at 10%, with a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 14%, illustrating positive operating leverage. The net interest margin improved for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising by ten basis points to 3.44%, primarily due to reduced costs of interest-bearing deposits. Non-interest income contributed significantly, accounting for 31% of total revenues, with a 12.7% increase in fee income compared to the previous quarter. NBT also reported net income of $36.7 million, or $0.77 per share, with operating earnings per share at $0.80, marking a $0.03 increase from the prior quarter. The tangible book value per share reached an all-time high of $24.74. Total deposits increased by $162 million to $11.7 billion, benefiting from seasonal municipal deposits, while the loan portfolio saw a growth of $40 million. The company continued its strategic expansion with the upcoming merger of Evans Bancorp, adding to its market presence in upstate New York.NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
NBT Bancorp Unveils New Investor Presentation Strategy
Positive
Feb 12, 2025
On February 12, 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. announced that its executive management team plans to use a new presentation in future meetings with investors and analysts. The presentation is available on the company’s website, indicating a proactive approach to engaging with stakeholders and enhancing investor relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.