Waste Management (WMI) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

WM expects 2026 revenue and free cash flow to finish at the high end of its ranges, operating EBITDA to be within the guidance range established at the beginning of the year, full year SG&A to be about 10% of revenue, and volume to be about -1% for the year or negative 50 basis points when excluding wildfire cleanup volumes from the prior year; core price and yield are tracking to the high end of guidance. Fourth-quarter margins are expected to show the company’s best performance from a margin perspective in Q4, while the year-over-year margin comparison will likely be a bit lower than the fourth quarter of 2025 due to about a 40 basis point impact from fuel; capital spending is expected to be more towards the higher end at that $2.75 billion number. Health care solutions had 2 year-end targets as WM exits 2026, core price at 5.5% and SG&A of between 15%-16% of revenue, and achieved both earlier than expected; long-term capital run rate is still probably 10% to 10.5%, technology is expected to expand margins in that 50- to 100-basis-point range consistently over time, and renewable energy pricing is expected to be more like $27 this year versus the $26 long term number.