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Republic Services (RSG)
NYSE:RSG

Republic Services (RSG) AI Stock Analysis

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Republic Services

(NYSE:RSG)

76Outperform
Republic Services demonstrates strong financial performance with effective cost management, robust profit margins, and strategic growth initiatives. Despite a high valuation and challenges in volume and weather impacts, the company's financial stability and strategic investments suggest a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Acquisitions and Growth
Recent acquisitions and improved activity levels are expected to enhance revenue and margins for the remainder of the year.
Financial Performance
Free cash flow of $724MM easily exceeded the $465MM consensus driven by better CFO and lower CapEx.
Pricing Strategy
Better than expected retention on price increases: core price on related revenue +7.3%.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
Core price for RSG was flat and below a peer, indicating competitive pressure.
Revenue Growth
Internal revenue growth of 2.9% missed expectations due to lower-than-expected volume from weather and other factors.
Valuation Concerns
The stock has materially outperformed peers YTD (+21% vs. +11%) and valuation is at a 20-yr high.

Republic Services (RSG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRepublic Services, Inc. operates as a leading provider of environmental services in the United States. The company primarily focuses on the collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste. Republic Services serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal clients, providing essential waste management solutions that promote sustainability and environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyRepublic Services generates revenue through several key streams, primarily centered around its waste collection and disposal services. The company earns money by charging fees for collecting waste from residential, commercial, and industrial clients. Additionally, Republic Services operates transfer stations and recycling facilities, where it processes and sells recyclable materials. Another significant revenue stream is landfill operations, where the company charges tipping fees for waste disposal. Republic Services also engages in strategic partnerships with municipalities and other organizations to manage waste services, further contributing to its earnings.

Republic Services Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Republic Services presents a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth, effective cost management, and healthy cash flow generation. The company's low leverage and high return on equity suggest prudent financial management and a solid foundation for future growth, although there is room to improve liquidity.
Income Statement
Republic Services demonstrates strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profit margins. For the TTM period ending March 2025, the company achieved a Gross Profit Margin of 50.8% and a Net Profit Margin of 12.9%. Revenue growth from the previous year was 8.2%, indicating a positive growth trajectory. The EBIT Margin was 20.2% and the EBITDA Margin was 28.3%, showcasing effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.036 for the TTM period, indicating low leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) was 17.9%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio stood at 35.2%, showing a healthy proportion of equity financing. Although the company maintains a conservative leverage profile, the relatively low cash position may limit immediate liquidity.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a solid performance with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 12.9% over the previous year, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was 1.99, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.13 also supports the company's ability to generate free cash flow relative to its net income, underpinning financial flexibility.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
16.03B14.96B13.51B11.29B10.15B
Gross Profit
6.68B6.02B5.31B4.56B4.05B
EBIT
3.20B2.78B2.39B2.08B1.71B
EBITDA
4.77B4.32B3.66B3.38B3.00B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.04B1.73B1.49B1.29B967.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
74.00M140.00M143.40M29.00M38.20M
Total Assets
32.40B31.41B29.05B24.95B23.43B
Total Debt
12.96B13.07B11.78B9.55B8.93B
Net Debt
12.88B12.93B11.64B9.53B8.90B
Total Liabilities
21.00B20.87B19.36B15.98B14.95B
Stockholders Equity
11.40B10.54B9.69B8.98B8.48B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.08B1.99B1.74B1.47B1.28B
Operating Cash Flow
3.94B3.62B3.19B2.79B2.47B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.56B-3.67B-4.42B-2.47B-1.92B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.40B61.90M1.34B-329.20M-612.00M

Republic Services Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price250.52
Price Trends
50DMA
238.07
Positive
100DMA
224.95
Positive
200DMA
214.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.42
Negative
RSI
62.95
Neutral
STOCH
88.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 250.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 242.28, above the 50-day MA of 238.07, and above the 200-day MA of 214.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSG.

Republic Services Risk Analysis

Republic Services disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Republic Services Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WMWM
79
Outperform
$94.14B35.2834.01%1.31%10.77%8.38%
CLCLH
78
Outperform
$11.90B30.7716.02%8.52%4.51%
RSRSG
76
Outperform
$78.29B37.7718.54%0.91%6.13%16.44%
75
Outperform
$7.41B532.381.00%21.63%-30.27%
64
Neutral
$4.27B11.815.31%249.66%4.08%-8.61%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RSG
Republic Services
250.52
65.84
35.65%
CWST
Casella Waste
116.75
22.47
23.83%
CLH
Clean Harbors
222.11
9.57
4.50%
WM
Waste Management
233.94
26.39
12.72%

Republic Services Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Republic Services reported strong financial performance with solid revenue and earnings growth, margin expansion, and successful strategic acquisitions. However, the company faced challenges with volume declines and weather-related impacts affecting performance in certain segments.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
Republic Services achieved revenue growth of 4% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.58, and adjusted free cash flow was $727 million, an increase of 36% compared to the prior year.
Margin Expansion
The company expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 140 basis points to 31.6%, driven by pricing ahead of inflation and cost management.
Sustainability and Innovation Initiatives
Republic Services made significant strides in sustainability with the grand opening of the Indianapolis Polymer Center and advancements in its Blue Polymers joint venture. The company is also progressing in renewable natural gas projects and fleet electrification.
Strong Customer Retention and Pricing
Customer retention rates remained strong at over 94%, and the company saw favorable trends in net promoter scores. Average yield on total revenue was 4.5%, with related revenue yield at 5.4%.
Strategic Acquisitions
Republic Services invested $826 million in strategic acquisitions, including the acquisition of Shamrock Environmental, enhancing capabilities in industrial waste and wastewater treatment services.
Negative Updates
Volume Decline
Organic volume on total revenue declined 1.2%, with specific decreases in large container volume by 3.3% and residential by 2.9%, primarily due to shedding underperforming contracts and softness in construction and manufacturing.
Impact of Severe Weather
Severe winter weather negatively impacted volume performance by $25 million to $30 million during the quarter, particularly in January and February.
Environmental Solutions Margin Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA margin in the Environmental Solutions segment decreased from 20.5% to 20.1% due to project timing and severe winter weather.
Company Guidance
During the Republic Services First Quarter 2025 Investor Conference Call, the company reported several key financial metrics, demonstrating strong performance despite challenges. The company achieved a revenue growth of 4%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 140 basis points. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.58, with an impressive $727 million in adjusted free cash flow. Organic revenue growth was driven by solid pricing, with an average yield on total revenue at 4.5% and on related revenue at 5.4%. Despite a 1.2% decline in organic volume, largely due to shedding underperforming residential contracts and softness in certain end markets, the company's customer retention rate remained robust at over 94%. The call also highlighted strong customer loyalty and favorable trends in net promoter scores, with strategic investments and acquisitions, including $826 million in strategic acquisitions, further supporting growth. The company's leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was approximately 2.6 times, with total debt at $13.4 billion and total liquidity at $2.6 billion.

Republic Services Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 13, 2025

On February 13, 2025, Republic Services reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showing a notable performance with a net income of $512 million for Q4 and $2.04 billion for the full year. The company exceeded its 2024 guidance on adjusted EBITDA, earnings per share, and free cash flow, and returned $1.18 billion to shareholders. For 2025, Republic Services projects revenue between $16.85 billion and $16.95 billion and plans to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions, indicating a strong outlook supported by favorable pricing, acquisitions, and sustainability investments.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.