Want to see CWST full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Casella Waste
(NASDAQ:CWST)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$82.00
▼(-11.83% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
CWST’s score is driven primarily by solid cash generation and improving balance-sheet positioning, alongside supportive earnings-call guidance (reaffirmed EBITDA/FCF and higher revenue outlook). These positives are offset by sharply weakened GAAP profitability/ROE, very expensive valuation (P/E ~778), and technical indicators that lean neutral-to-bearish (negative MACD and trading below the 20-day and 200-day averages).
Positive Factors
Integrated waste infrastructure
Casella’s owned and operated network supports multiple revenue streams, including collection, transfer, disposal and recycling. This integrated model can capture value across the waste chain, support recurring customer relationships, and create operational benefits as volumes move through its assets.
Negative Factors
Sharp profitability compression
The steep decline in gross and net margins shows that revenue growth is converting into very little bottom-line profit. Persistently weak earnings conversion can constrain returns on equity, reduce resilience against cost increases, and limit the value created from continued expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated waste infrastructure
Casella’s owned and operated network supports multiple revenue streams, including collection, transfer, disposal and recycling. This integrated model can capture value across the waste chain, support recurring customer relationships, and create operational benefits as volumes move through its assets.
Read all positive factors
Casella Waste Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profit generated by each business line (collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, etc.), revealing where the company earns its money and which parts are most efficient. Helps investors spot margin drivers, operational strengths, and segments that may need cost control or face margin pressure from labor, fuel, or regulation.
Shows profit generated by each business line (collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, etc.), revealing where the company earns its money and which parts are most efficient. Helps investors spot margin drivers, operational strengths, and segments that may need cost control or face margin pressure from labor, fuel, or regulation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCasella Waste (CWST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.33B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)544.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)898.9
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth13.59%
EPS Growth-50.47%
CountryUS
Employees5,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding62,651,848
10 Day Avg. Volume669,610
30 Day Avg. Volume544,628
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-17.07
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.38
P/FCF Ratio73.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$112.00Price Target Upside20.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.10B
Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casella Waste Systems, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste management firm across the northeastern United States. The company specializes in comprehensive waste and resource management solutions, enco...
How the Company Makes Money
Casella makes money by charging customers and counterparties for services across the waste management value chain, with revenues generally driven by (1) recurring service fees and (2) the throughput and pricing of disposal and processing assets.
...
Casella Waste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented solid top-line growth, strong adjusted EBITDA expansion, improved safety metrics, successful Mid-Atlantic integration progress, and disciplined cash generation and liquidity — offset by margin headwinds from fuel recovery mechanics, Resource Solutions comparables, and modest acquisition dilution. Management reiterated full-year operating guidance while raising revenue due largely to elevated fuel recovery fees and a recent small tuck-in acquisition, and emphasized ongoing focus on unlocking scale, operational synergies, and continued tuck-in M&A.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q2 revenue of $543.7 million, up 16.9% year-over-year driven by acquisitions and same-store growth.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 80 basis points YoY to 22.7%, with higher fee-related revenue and acquisition dilution weighing on margins.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q2 revenue of $543.7 million, up 16.9% year-over-year driven by acquisitions and same-store growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Casella raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.09–$2.11 billion (a $30 million increase, driven mostly by higher expected fuel recovery fees with roughly >$20M attributed to fuel and an acquisition contributing ~$15M annualized—less than $10M of which falls in 2026), while reaffirming adjusted EBITDA of $473–$483 million, adjusted free cash flow of $200–$210 million, and net cash provided by operating activities of $370–$380 million; management assumes fuel stays near current elevated levels, expects solid waste price growth of about 5% (third‑party landfill price 4–5%), and notes fuel and recent M&A will weigh on margins by roughly 40–50 basis points (about a 30 bps FY headwind), with Q2 metrics including $543.7M revenue, $123.2M adjusted EBITDA, consolidated net leverage of 2.7x (as of 6/30), $1.35B debt, ~$25M cash and ~ $500M available liquidity; GAAP net income guidance was lowered to $0–$6M due to higher amortization and tax impacts.Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 1.84B | 1.56B | 1.26B | 1.09B | 889.21M |
| Gross Profit | 495.99M | 313.40M | 295.04M | 261.80M | 235.62M | 203.22M |
| EBITDA | 398.07M | 393.60M | 321.52M | 274.17M | 248.29M | 208.78M |
| Net Income | 5.70M | 7.87M | 13.54M | 25.40M | 53.08M | 41.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.56B | 3.41B | 3.33B | 2.54B | 1.45B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.54M | 123.77M | 383.30M | 220.91M | 71.15M | 33.81M |
| Total Debt | 1.45B | 1.24B | 1.21B | 1.12B | 665.33M | 616.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.98B | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.51B | 951.32M | 861.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.58B | 1.57B | 1.55B | 1.02B | 497.90M | 422.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.67M | 84.70M | 78.13M | 78.19M | 86.35M | 59.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 351.15M | 329.78M | 281.36M | 233.09M | 217.31M | 182.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -695.22M | -469.15M | -670.61M | -1.01B | -206.92M | -293.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 151.83M | -27.07M | 551.64M | 922.30M | 26.95M | -10.12M |
Casella Waste Technical Analysis
Negative
93.00
Price Trends
88.95
Negative
89.68
Negative
90.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.02
Negative
44.24
Neutral
92.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.64, above the 50-day MA of 88.95, and above the 200-day MA of 90.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CWST.
Casella Waste Risk Analysis
Casella Waste disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casella Waste reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casella Waste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $66.41B | 30.72 | 18.27% | 1.17% | 3.21% | 4.30% | |
71 Outperform | $16.73B | 38.32 | 15.64% | ― | 5.07% | 15.63% | |
71 Outperform | $83.47B | 29.45 | 28.92% | 1.75% | 7.17% | 4.68% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $5.33B | 898.93 | 0.36% | ― | 13.59% | -50.47% | |
49 Neutral | $556.75M | -1.32 | 208.72% | 75.95% | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
CWST
Casella Waste
85.20
-4.56
-5.08%
CLH
Clean Harbors
319.02
82.05
34.62%
NVRI
Enviri Corporation
19.66
3.49
21.58%
RSG
Republic Services
219.75
-0.64
-0.29%
WM
Waste Management
211.14
-2.38
-1.12%
Casella Waste Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Casella Waste Advances Closure of New Hampshire Landfill
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. announced that its North Country Environmental Services landfill in Bethlehem, New Hampshire will stop accepting municipal solid waste on December 31, 2026, earlier than its prior expectation of ceas...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.