Vale SA (VALEN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:VALEN Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 5.45
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 7.21
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 1.77
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 11.84
MX:VALEN Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 199.17B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 196.33B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 2.83B
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +1.88%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/29/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 29, 2026
Vale SA's next earnings date is estimated for February 25, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly positive, with management emphasizing operational recovery actions, strong base-metals performance, record Salobo production, copper growth projects, substantial hedging and freight protection, solid free cash flow and declining net debt. These positives were balanced by a 20% year-on-year EBITDA decline, lower iron ore and copper production, higher iron ore and nickel costs, weak Chinese steel conditions and ongoing Serra Norte challenges. Management remained confident in meeting 2026 production and cost guidance and in advancing longer-term copper growth.
Vale expects to deliver iron ore production at the low end of its production guidance for the year, base-metals production in the upper half of the production guidance for both metals, and 2026 C1 and all-in costs within their respective guidance ranges; copper all-in cost is expected to finish 2026 near the lower end of the guidance range, nickel costs are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and return to levels broadly in line with the second quarter, with 2026 nickel cost guidance of $10,000 to $11,500 per tonne, and CapEx is expected to finish 2026 towards the lower end of the $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion guidance range. For the fourth quarter, C1 and all-in costs are expected to be relatively stable in relation to this quarter within the guidance range, with C1 probably a bit below and all in a bit above, while all-in is expected to be higher than the third quarter and closer to the high end of the guidance within the guidance. Serra Norte is expected to move sideways in 2027 at approximately 64 million tonnes a year, Serra Leste is expected to move from 8 million tonnes a year to 10 million tonnes a year and then to 30 million tonnes, and N3 is expected to produce around 6 million tonnes per year by 2028; about 5 million tonnes between third-party and own production could be eventually adjusted down next year. The Salobo CPF project will add 6 million tonnes per year to processing capacity, bringing the total to 42 million tonnes, with start-up expected in the first half of 2028, approximately 30,000 tonnes of copper per year and approximately 15,000 ounces of gold as a byproduct, supporting a production target of up to 500,000 tonnes of copper by 2030 and copper capacity of 700 kilotons by 2035; Alemão remains on track for 2030 on production, and if Vale closed its 2027 freight position today, costs would be something close to the range of 24 to 25.
- Iron Ore Sales and Full-Year GuidanceIron ore sales totaled 86.3 million tonnes, slightly above last year, supported by strong performance at S11D and the sale of inventories built in previous quarters. Vale remains positioned to deliver at the low end of its production guidance for the year.
- Serra Norte Recovery ActionsVale increased access to hematite ore in newly licensed areas and expects these initiatives to support year-on-year production growth in the fourth quarter. Serra Norte's daily average production in October was 15% higher than in September, and management said operations were back to normal.
- Iron Ore Growth Projects and Portfolio FlexibilityCapanema, S11D Plus 20 and the Compact Crushing plant are adding flexibility and resilience to the iron ore portfolio. S11D is expected to produce about 90 million tonnes, with potential to reach 100 million tonnes as S11D Plus 20 comes online. Serra Leste is expected to increase from 8 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes in the shorter term, with longer-term potential to reach 20 million to 30 million tonnes.
- Freight Strategy Protected MarginsAround 75% of Vale's shipping needs are covered by medium- to long-term contracts at fixed rates, the company is fully covered for fourth-quarter freight needs, and more than 80% of 2027 requirements have already been secured. Since the first quarter, Brazil-China spot freight rates increased by $12 per tonne and Australia-China rates by $4.9 per tonne, while Vale's realized freight cost increased by only $4.7 per tonne. The strategy generated a total benefit of more than $3 billion versus the spot market in 2026.
- Strong Nickel Production and Sales GrowthNickel production increased 6% year-on-year and sales grew 16%. The Sudbury refinery delivered its highest quarterly output since the fourth quarter of 2013, while Onça Puma achieved its strongest third-quarter performance, supported by commissioning of its second furnace.
- Base Metals Guidance and Operational MomentumYear-to-date copper production increased 4% and nickel production grew 8%. Based on year-to-date results and October operating performance, Vale expects to reach the upper half of its production guidance for both metals.
- Record Salobo Copper ProductionSalobo delivered its highest third-quarter production on record. Despite planned maintenance at Sossego, management said Sossego remains on track to produce more copper in 2026 than in 2025.
- Salobo CPF Project ApprovedVale approved the coarse particle flotation project at Salobo. The project will add 6 million tonnes per year to Salobo's core processing capacity, bringing the total to 42 million tonnes, and is expected to add approximately 30,000 tonnes of copper per year contained in concentrate and approximately 15,000 ounces of gold as a byproduct once fully ramped up. Start-up is expected in the first half of 2028.
- Copper Growth Targets and Project PipelineTogether with Bacaba and productivity initiatives in Canada, the Salobo CPF project supports Vale's target of producing up to 500,000 tonnes of copper by 2030. Vale is targeting approximately 700 kilotons of copper capacity by 2035. The Alemão project remains on track for a final investment decision next year and production in 2030, with its environmental impact report completed and a public hearing scheduled for the following month.
- Expanded Copper ExplorationVale has more than quadrupled drilling in Pará compared with two years ago. Base metals exploration spending remains around $170 million per year, drilling in Pará increased from 20,000 to 30,000 metres in 2024 and earlier years to 65,000 metres last year and more than 120,000 metres expected this year. Unit costs in Pará have declined about 40%, and Vale said it remains on track to add more than 20% to reserves and resources from 2024 levels by late next year.
- Base Metals EBITDA GrowthVale Base Metals EBITDA reached $1.1 billion, increasing more than 60% year-on-year and representing 31% of Vale's EBITDA in the quarter. The performance was supported by higher realized prices across the portfolio and consistent operational execution.
- Copper Cost ImprovementCopper all-in costs were negative $200 per tonne, improving by $1,200 per tonne year-on-year. The result was supported by strong byproduct revenues and lower unit expenses, and Vale expects copper all-in costs to finish 2026 near the lower end of its guidance range.
- Hedging Benefits and Risk ManagementCurrency and oil hedges generated more than $700 million in cash benefits in 2026 so far, including $456 million from currency hedge settlements. Vale has hedged 67% of expected 2027 bunker fuel consumption at an average price of $78 per barrel on a Brent-equivalent basis and entered 2027 with a currency hedge position at an average exchange rate of BRL 5.72.
- Solid Free Cash Flow and Balance SheetThird-quarter free cash flow totaled $2.2 billion despite lower EBITDA, supported by working capital release and hedging benefits. Capital expenditures were $1.25 billion, and full-year CapEx is expected toward the lower end of the $5.4 billion to $5.7 billion guidance range. Expanded net debt declined by approximately $200 million to $16.4 billion, remaining within the $10 billion to $20 billion target range even after $1.7 billion of dividends and interest on capital paid in September.
- Thompson Transaction Preserved Nickel ExposureVale completed the Thompson transaction, retaining an 18.9% interest and securing a multiyear offtake agreement for nickel concentrate, preserving strategic exposure and access to nickel units for downstream assets.
- Capital Allocation and Potential BuybacksManagement said Vale's shares look inexpensive and buybacks are attractive. The company has an open buyback program and expects future additional capital generation to be balanced more between buybacks and dividends, while continuing to evaluate strategic M&A opportunities.
- Third-Party Ore FlexibilityVale said all third-party volumes commercialized are contribution-margin positive, with flexibility to stop those volumes if margins become negative. Short-term contracts, owned ports, special railway rates and long-term time-charter contracts support the economics of these volumes.
MX:VALEN Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 8.28- | -16.91 | ― | ― |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 7.215.45 | 11.84 | -53.97% (-6.39) | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 8.686.01 | 9.39 | -36.00% (-3.38) | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 9.818.27 | 6.2 | 33.33% (+2.07) | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 11.05-16.91 | -3.01 | -462.50% (-13.90) | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 9.5111.84 | 10.52 | 12.50% (+1.32) | |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 6.679.39 | 12.21 | -23.08% (-2.82) | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 6.936.20 | 7.33 | -15.38% (-1.13) | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 8.68-3.01 | 10.52 | -128.57% (-13.53) | |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 8.1710.52 | 12.4 | -15.15% (-1.88) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
