Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

Ulta Beauty

(BMV:ULTA)

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Positive Factors

Strong profitability and cash generationUlta combines strong specialty-retail profitability with substantial operating and free cash flow. This supports store, technology and customer investments while preserving financial flexibility, allowing the company to fund growth initiatives and shareholder returns through the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Moderating underlying growthSlower revenue growth and lower profitability than prior peaks suggest the post-2022 acceleration has faded. A more moderate trajectory can constrain operating leverage and reduce the cushion available to absorb higher investments, competitive pressure or weaker demand in selected categories.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 27.38B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 67
Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
Beta (1Y): 0.23
Revenue Growth: 0.13%
EPS Growth: -5.64%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 65,000
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Specialty Retail

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and profes...

Ulta Beauty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:29.31%|Next Earnings Date:Dec 02, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a predominantly positive picture: strong top‑line growth (+8.9%), double‑digit EPS expansion (+13.3%), raised full‑year guidance, robust e‑commerce/omni‑channel momentum, loyalty expansion and successful category initiatives (fragrance, K‑Beauty, wellness). Headwinds were present but largely modest — category pockets of softness (mass makeup, some skin/body), a slight gross‑margin impact from Space NK, higher SG&A tied to investments and an uptick in promotional intensity. Management signaled prudent assumptions for the back half and continued focus on productivity, margin management and capital returns.

Positive Updates

Strong Top-Line, Profit and EPS Growth

Net sales increased 8.9% to $3.0B (vs $2.8B LY); comparable sales +3.8%. Operating profit rose 10.1% to $380M and operating margin was 12.5% (vs 12.4% LY). Net income increased 8.1% to $282M and diluted EPS grew 13.3% to $6.55.

Negative Updates

Pressure in Mass Makeup and Certain Skin/Body Categories

Makeup comps were roughly flat overall; mass makeup declined in the low single‑digit range (stalled by lapping last year’s newness). Total skin care and body care experienced modest declines (body care lapped meaningful expansions from last year).

Company Guidance

Ulta raised fiscal 2026 guidance, now forecasting net sales growth of 6.7%–7.2% (comp sales +3.2%–3.7%), operating profit growth of 8.3%–9.3%, and diluted EPS of $28.70–$29.00 (implying EPS growth of 11.9%–13.1%), assuming ~43 million weighted average shares and a ~24.5% tax rate; management expects gross margin roughly flat for the year with up to a 20 basis‑point improvement in operating margin, SG&A to grow less than revenues, and interest expense of $14M–$16M. For the second half they project net sales +4%–5% (comps +2%–3%), a second‑half 2‑year stacked comp >8%, operating profit +6%–8%, and EPS growth of 9%–12% (with normal seasonality—less EPS growth in Q3 vs Q4). Capital allocation targets include $1.8 billion of share repurchases in FY26 (about $1.0 billion remaining under the current authorization) and continued disciplined reinvestment to support market‑share gains.

Ulta Beauty Risk Analysis

Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ulta Beauty reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.

Ability to Sell - Risks related to the company’s ability to sell goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MX:ULTA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SBH	81Outperform	$1.70B	9.12	23.11%	―	1.08%	3.88%
AMZN	74Outperform	$2.59T	19.17	26.71%	―	15.35%	73.92%
RVLV	70Outperform	$1.59B	21.99	14.05%	―	10.80%	59.70%
BBWI	66Neutral	$4.59B	6.07	-61.76%	3.51%	-2.18%	14.77%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MNSO	58Neutral	$3.07B	17.13	14.11%	6.51%	30.43%	-44.33%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:ULTA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MX:ULTA	Ulta Beauty	12000.00	2351.29	24.37%
AMZN	Amazon.Com, Inc.	240.35	-13.65	-5.37%
BBWI	Bath & Body Works, Inc.	22.77	-0.45	-1.95%
SBH	Sally Beauty Holdings	18.15	3.87	27.10%
RVLV	Revolve Group	22.43	1.13	5.31%
MNSO	Miniso Group Holding Ltd.	10.23	-10.60	-50.89%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Ulta Beauty AI Stock Analysis