Trex Company (TREX1) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
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MX:TREX1 Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 10.21
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 8.89
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 1.32
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 9.46
MX:TREX1 Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 6.67B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 5.84B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 828.51M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +25.99%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 11/04/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026
MX:TREX1 Upcoming Earnings
Trex Company's next earnings date is estimated for March 1, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:TREX1 Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Trex reported record third-quarter revenue, above-market underlying growth, broad-based product and channel gains, successful distribution-transition execution, strong free cash flow, and a raised full-year outlook. These strengths outweighed lower gross margin, elevated freight and depreciation costs, startup costs at Little Rock, and the still-early PVC and manufacturing-ramp initiatives.
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year guidance to net sales of approximately $1.296 billion-$1.306 billion, up 11% annually at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $355 million-$360 million, adjusted gross margin of 37.5%-38% of sales, adjusted SG&A of roughly 17%, and capital expenditures of approximately $100 million; fourth-quarter net sales are expected at approximately $175 million-$185 million, with implied gross margin in the 34%-35% zone. Little Rock is expected to have half of the facility's decking capacity operational by year-end, or 50% capacity utilization by the end of the year, and production is expected to increase double-digit growth in output across the network versus Q4 2025; management said it is not giving guidance on 2027, but expects improvement in margin next year if healthy demand continues, with benefits from Little Rock really to start hitting home in the back half of 2027, and starting in 2028, about every $100 million of sales should generate about 100 basis points in gross margin improvement. The company’s ambition remains to reach $2 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
- Record Third-Quarter Revenue and Above-Market GrowthThird-quarter net sales increased 26% to approximately $360 million, with growth driven primarily by volume. Approximately $30 million, or 11 percentage points, came from the initial distribution load-in, while underlying demand growth was approximately 15%. Trex's underlying growth was more than double the estimated 6% growth of the overall decking category and exceeded approximately 9% composite decking growth.
- Market Share Gains and Strong Wood ConversionManagement said Trex is taking share from wood and tertiary brands. Adjusted trailing 12-month sell-in and sell-out growth were estimated at approximately 8% and 9%, respectively, while quarterly sell-in and sell-out growth, adjusted for load-ins and discounting, were both in the teens. Management also said wood-to-composite conversion was higher in 2026 than the historical 80-100 basis-point annual average.
- Successful Distribution TransitionThe company completed initial inventory placements with new distribution partners with minimal disruption. The transition remained on schedule, quarter-end channel inventory was comparable with the prior year, and management reported no meaningful service interruptions for major dealer and home-center accounts. The company recorded approximately $30 million of load-in revenue in the third quarter and expects $5 million in the fourth quarter, which management said would complete the year's load-in.
- Broad-Based Product Portfolio GrowthDecking grew across premium, mid-tier, and entry-level products, with double-digit growth across the 'good, better, best' categories. Railing delivered significant double-digit growth, while fasteners and accessories also contributed. Attachment rates increased from the mid-20% range to almost 30% by the end of the third quarter, rising approximately 500 basis points from the beginning of the year.
- Strength Across Channels and AccountsGrowth was reported in both professional and home-center channels, across multiple products and customers. National accounts continued to expand, and regional distributors began converting dealers and tertiary-brand programs to Trex, with some dealers increasing purchases from bundles to half-truckloads.
- Little Rock Facility Progressing Ahead of ScheduleProduction at the Little Rock, Arkansas facility began more than six months ahead of the original schedule. The company is training its workforce, increasing production, and improving throughput and efficiency. Management remains on track to have 50% of the facility's decking capacity operational by year-end.
- Manufacturing Capacity Supports Long-Term ExpansionManagement said Little Rock will place production closer to attractive Sunbelt markets, where wood represents a significant portion of the decking opportunity. The facility is expected to provide flexibility to add production lines and capacity as demand grows and support the company's wood-conversion strategy.
- Adjusted EBITDA and Gross Profit Dollars IncreasedAdjusted EBITDA increased 10% to approximately $100 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.7%. Despite lower adjusted gross margin, adjusted gross profit dollars increased 13% year over year.
- Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital ReturnsTrex generated approximately $135 million of free cash flow during the quarter, used $83 million to pay down its revolving credit facility, and returned $55 million to shareholders through share repurchases. Through October 31, the company had repurchased $97 million of the $150 million targeted for the second half of 2026, including approximately $42 million in October.
- Raised Full-Year OutlookThe company raised its full-year outlook to net sales of approximately $1.296 billion-$1.306 billion, up 11% annually at the midpoint, and adjusted EBITDA of $355 million-$360 million. It expects adjusted gross margin of 37.5%-38% of sales, adjusted SG&A of roughly 17%, and capital expenditures of approximately $100 million. Fourth-quarter net sales are expected to be approximately $175 million-$185 million.
- Demand Supported by Repair and Remodeling ActivityA proprietary survey of approximately 2,000 homeowners found that some homeowners are staying in their current homes because of higher rates and home prices and are investing in deferred projects, with outdoor living identified as one of the first areas they are choosing to improve.
- Continued Investment in Brand, Marketing, and InnovationManagement plans to continue increasing investment in marketing and digital and technology capabilities, emphasizing Trex's performance positioning across heat mitigation, marine, and fire categories. The company also plans to continue innovation efforts, including pursuing longer-term game-changing innovation and serving consumers across all income levels and budgets.
- PVC and Outdoor-Living Expansion OpportunitiesManagement identified PVC decking, which represents 20% of the total market, as a significant opportunity. Trex introduced a grooved PVC profile in 2026 and plans to expand its PVC offering with additional grooved and fascia profiles in 2027. The company also sees opportunities to increase participation in railing, fasteners, lighting, fencing, and other coordinated outdoor-living solutions.
- Tertiary-Brand Conversion OpportunityManagement cited a $100 million opportunity over two years from converting tertiary-brand business to Trex and said some conversions began appearing in the third quarter and continued into the fourth quarter.
- Expected Production and Margin BenefitsFor the fourth quarter, management expects double-digit growth in output across the network versus the fourth quarter of 2025, which should increase fixed-cost absorption. Management also said a more decking-weighted mix would provide a fourth-quarter tailwind and that, if healthy demand continues and Little Rock reaches network efficiency levels, gross margin should improve year over year.
- Long-Term Revenue and Margin AmbitionsTrex reaffirmed its ambition to reach $2 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Management said that, starting in 2028 and excluding 2027 because of the Little Rock startup, approximately every $100 million of sales should generate about 100 basis points of gross-margin improvement under the current footprint and production and sales mix.
MX:TREX1 Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 01, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 1.80- | 0.74 | ― | ― |
| Nov 04, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 8.8910.21 | 9.46 | 7.84% (+0.74) | |
| Aug 04, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 11.7511.50 | 13.55 | -15.07% (-2.04) | |
| May 07, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 9.4310.95 | 11.13 | -1.67% (-0.19) | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | -0.280.74 | 1.67 | -55.56% (-0.93) | |
| Nov 04, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 10.549.46 | 6.87 | 37.84% (+2.60) | |
| Aug 04, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 13.1713.55 | 14.84 | -8.75% (-1.30) | |
| May 08, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 11.0211.13 | 15.22 | -26.83% (-4.08) | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 0.801.67 | 3.71 | -55.00% (-2.04) | |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 5.946.87 | 10.58 | -35.09% (-3.71) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed
