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Pampa Energia SA (PAMPN) AI Stock Analysis

MX:PAMPN

Pampa Energia SA

(BMV:PAMPN)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strong profitability and revenue growthRecent revenue expansion and materially higher net income indicate strong operating performance across the business. Healthy gross and net margins provide internal funding capacity, support resilience through market changes, and create a solid earnings base for continued investment over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flowPersistent negative free cash flow means accounting earnings are not currently translating into sufficient discretionary cash after investment needs. Continued cash shortfalls can increase reliance on external funding, reduce flexibility during operating volatility, and constrain the ability to pursue growth without added balance-sheet pressure.

Pampa Energia SA (PAMPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%MX:PAMPN-6.62%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
MXN 3.89B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
680
Price to Earnings (P/E)
7.3
Beta (1Y)
-1.26
Revenue Growth
17.30%
EPS Growth
12.58%
Country
Mexico
Employees
11,598
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Regulated Electric

Pampa Energia SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pampa Energía SA engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. It operates through the following segments: Electricity Generation, Distribution of Energy, Oil and Gas, Petrochemicals, and Holding and Others. The Electricit...

Pampa Energia SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026(Q1-2026)|% Change Since:-6.62%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 01, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized strong operational momentum (record production, rapid Rincon de Aranda ramp-up, significant YoY EBITDA growth, improved drilling/completion efficiency, and strategic capacity wins) while also highlighting near-term cash and working capital pressures (negative free cash flow, hedge collateral, prepayments for pipeline capacity), some operational outages and mark-to-market volatility from hedges. Management communicated credible plans to sustain ramp-up, access financing (recent bond issuance) and gradually deleverage as EBITDA grows, while noting several near-term cash commitments and hedge effects.

Positive Updates

Record Production and Rincon de Aranda Ramp-Up
Total production exceeded 100,000 boe/d (new quarterly all-time high). Rincon de Aranda averaged 18,200 bbl/d in Q1 (up 7% QoQ) and is producing approximately 25,000 bbl/d as of the call. Rincon de Aranda contributed ~17% of quarter EBITDA and 54% of Oil & Gas segment EBITDA (up from 15% a year ago). Exit rate exceeded 21,000 bbl/d; target 28,000 bbl/d by mid-2026 and a 45,000 bbl/d plateau once central processing and pipeline are online.

Negative Updates

Negative Free Cash Flow and Cash Drawdown
Free cash flow was negative $404 million in Q1, driven by hedge collateral requirements, intensive CapEx at Rincon de Aranda, and payments related to prior-year CapEx. Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $677 million, down $414 million vs Q4.

Company Guidance

Management guided that Q1 momentum should continue, with upstream and power synergies driving growth: production already topped 100,000 boe/d (Q1), Rincon de Aranda is ~25,000 bpd today (avg Q1 18,200 bpd, exit >21,000 bpd) with a target of 28,000 bpd by mid‑2026 and a 45,000 bpd plateau (full‑field development ~$4.5bn) after CPF and pipeline, and plans to tie in ~20 more wells this year; they expect gas production ~14 mcm/d (Q1), exports 1.5 mcm/d, ~40% of gas to self‑supply power, and secured 3.2 mcm/d (27% of Perito Moreno expansion) with a ~$330m prepayment (35‑year contract) and operations targeted winter 2027; financials: Q1 adjusted EBITDA $325m (+48% YoY, +41% QoQ) with Oil & Gas EBITDA $104m (2.5x YoY) and Power EBITDA $144m (+11% YoY, +30% QoQ), CapEx $242m (+36% YoY, $163m to Rincon de Aranda), lifting costs $6.1/boe (down 11% YoY), gas lifting $0.90/mmbtu, realized oil $58/bbl (hedged; without hedge >$69/bbl), free cash flow negative $404m in Q1, cash $677m, gross debt ~$1.9bn, net debt $1.2bn (net leverage 1.5x LTM EBITDA); management expects an incremental ~ $100m EBITDA for power and ~€50–60m for E&P from additional pipeline‑enabled dispatch, plans to reduce hedge ratios from ~100% during ramp‑up toward ~50%, and to keep net leverage around 1.5x this year while deleveraging as Rincon ramps.

Pampa Energia SA Risk Analysis

Pampa Energia SA disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pampa Energia SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Provisions of our bylaws and of Argentine securities laws could deter takeover attempts and have an adverse impact on the price of our shares and the ADSsQ4, 2019
2.Our shareholders may be subject to liability for certain votes of their securitiesQ4, 2019
3.Holders of ADSs may be unable to exercise voting rights with respect to the common shares underlying the ADSs at our shareholders' meetingsQ4, 2019

Pampa Energia SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

MX:PAMPN against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CIGCIG73Outperform$6.42B10.2215.93%10.41%12.93%-24.59%
ELPCELPC71Outperform$7.82B13.7712.91%4.93%26.97%11.70%
CEPUCEPU67Neutral$1.71B5.4718.17%10.14%50.81%107.08%
EDNEDN66Neutral$772.52M4.5710.46%―1.93%-35.13%
ENICENIC64Neutral$5.59B9.7310.78%4.67%16.18%742.80%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%-25%0%25%50%MX:PAMPNCIGEDNENICCEPUELPCDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MX:PAMPN and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:PAMPNPampa Energia1400.59-99.31-6.62%
CIGCompanhia Energetica Minas Gerais1.83-0.12-6.11%
EDNEdenor SA Class B15.63-19.62-55.66%
ENICEnel Chile4.130.3810.07%
CEPUCentral Puerto10.61-4.46-29.60%
ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR10.551.2113.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.