Want to see ELPC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
(NYSE:ELPC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(35.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
The score is driven mainly by solid profitability and constructive earnings-call updates (strong YoY EBITDA/net income growth, larger tariff-related remuneration base, and reaffirmed shareholder payout policy). These positives are tempered by weaker/volatile cash-flow trends and rising leverage, while technicals are supportive but somewhat overextended; valuation is reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and ~3.7% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Expanded regulated remuneration base
The larger remuneration base strengthens the scale and resilience of Copel’s regulated distribution business. It can support higher allowed earnings and investment capacity over multiple tariff periods, while reinforcing the company’s position in a core concession area.
Negative Factors
Volatile and weakening cash conversion
Although free cash flow remains positive, the sharp decline in operating cash flow and uneven historical conversion make internally generated funding less predictable. This can constrain flexibility during heavy investment periods and increase reliance on debt or other financing sources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Expanded regulated remuneration base
The larger remuneration base strengthens the scale and resilience of Copel’s regulated distribution business. It can support higher allowed earnings and investment capacity over multiple tariff periods, while reinforcing the company’s position in a core concession area.
Read all positive factors
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR (ELPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.50B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)580.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth26.97%
EPS Growth11.70%
CountryUS
Employees4,287
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.32
Shares Outstanding745,702,640
10 Day Avg. Volume813,868
30 Day Avg. Volume580,459
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)0.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio3.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.77
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.72B
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) is a Brazilian enterprise primarily engaged in the generation, transformation, distribution, and sale of electrical power. The company serves a diverse clientele, including industrial, residential, commercia...
How the Company Makes Money
Copel’s earnings are primarily driven by regulated and contracted electricity business lines. It generally makes money through: (1) Electricity distribution: selling electricity to end customers within its distribution concession area, earning reg...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial quarter: robust EBITDA (+21%) and recurring net income (+42.6%), a materially larger remuneration base after tariff review, sizable CapEx underway for high-return expansion projects, a clear shareholder-remuneration policy (75% minimum payout) and a resourced balance sheet (net debt BRL 19.6bn, 5.2-year duration). Notable headwinds include higher curtailment impacts, increased financial expenses reducing recurring financial income, some cost pressures and market/regulatory uncertainties (auction dynamics, potential rebidding, and investor questions about the leverage convergence timeline). On balance, the positives — scale expansion, strong earnings, disciplined capital allocation and low commercial delinquency — outweigh the operational and market risks highlighted during the call.Positive Updates
Tariff Review and Material Remuneration Base Expansion
Completion of Copel Distribution tariff review resulted in a remuneration base close to BRL 20 billion (more than double the 2021 base), recognized as technically sound and increasing the company's scale, resilience and investment capacity.
Negative Updates
Higher Curtailment and Reduced Modulation Revenue
Curtailment imposed by ONS rose from 15.7% to 23.7% during the quarter, producing a BRL 34.8 million negative impact; reduced modulation also drove a BRL 35.2 million decline in revenue versus prior period.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tariff Review and Material Remuneration Base Expansion
Completion of Copel Distribution tariff review resulted in a remuneration base close to BRL 20 billion (more than double the 2021 base), recognized as technically sound and increasing the company's scale, resilience and investment capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that following a tariff review Copel Distribution’s remuneration base rose to close to BRL 20 billion (more than double 2021), and management reaffirmed disciplined capital allocation while updating its optimal capital structure to a 2.9x net debt/EBITDA target with convergence “up to” 48 months; consolidated recurring EBITDA was BRL 1.6 billion (+21% YoY) (DisCo EBITDA BRL 765.6 million, +34.5%; Jet EBITDA BRL 838 million, +10.1%), recurring net income was BRL 645.1 million (+42.6%), adjusted net debt ended June at BRL 19.6 billion (leverage 2.9x), average nominal cost of debt 12.92% p.a. (≈91.33% of CDI), debt duration 5.2 years, 65.7% of debt indexed to CDI and 31% to IPCA; Q2 CapEx was BRL 957.2 million (≈BRL 318 million to start Foz do Areia and Segredo) within a planned ~BRL 5 billion expansion for those plants, and the company declared BRL 706 million in interest on equity (to be paid Sep‑2026) after paying BRL 1–1.35 billion in dividends in June, while preserving a minimum payout policy of 75% with at least two annual payments; operational metrics/guidance include capturing ~BRL 75 million in market opportunities in Q2 (BRL 52m hydro modulation, BRL 23m submarkets), a 7.2% build‑market growth for DisCo, average GSF ~99.6%, hydropower availability maintained at 20% through 2026 with >40% uncontracted from 2028 to preserve commercial optionality, PMSO at BRL 701.9 million with continued focus on efficiency, and contingency/operational readiness for an NOAA‑flagged 81% probability of strong/very strong El Niño (Aug–Q1 2027) with ample crews, inventories and monitoring to capture short‑term price spikes.Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.96B | 25.60B | 22.65B | 21.48B | 20.54B | -13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 7.58B | 5.44B | 4.89B | 4.90B | 4.93B | -30.03B |
| EBITDA | 7.12B | 7.14B | 4.45B | 3.96B | 2.27B | 5.64B |
| Net Income | 3.19B | 2.64B | 2.81B | 2.26B | 1.11B | 4.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.65B | 60.41B | 57.38B | 55.82B | 49.70B | 49.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.41B | 3.53B | 4.38B | 5.65B | 2.87B | 3.87B |
| Total Debt | 23.57B | 20.31B | 17.57B | 15.23B | 12.73B | 12.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.50B | 37.32B | 31.75B | 31.63B | 28.57B | 27.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.13B | 23.13B | 25.67B | 23.89B | 20.82B | 21.84B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.09B | 2.81B | 603.96M | 663.41M | 681.71M | 564.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 2.97B | 629.49M | 704.42M | 755.67M | 627.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 201.47M | -1.72B | -1.06B | -627.66M | -537.32M | 5.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -341.78M | -2.26B | 149.11M | 539.87M | -372.16M | -534.53M |
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis
Positive
11.42
Price Trends
12.00
Positive
11.80
Positive
11.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Negative
76.52
Negative
82.75
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.81, below the 50-day MA of 12.00, and below the 200-day MA of 11.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELPC.
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Risk Analysis
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $10.50B | 17.00 | 12.91% | 3.67% | 26.97% | 11.70% | |
70 Outperform | $4.58B | 7.84 | 15.56% | 0.66% | 28.77% | 25.20% | |
67 Neutral | $8.16B | 11.39 | 15.93% | 7.94% | 12.93% | -24.59% | |
67 Neutral | $6.09B | 10.83 | 10.70% | 4.31% | 9.54% | 294.77% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $2.01B | 6.37 | 18.17% | 8.51% | 50.81% | 107.08% | |
58 Neutral | $972.03M | 5.71 | 10.46% | ― | 1.93% | -35.13% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
14.19
6.14
76.36%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.40
0.63
35.21%
EDN
Edenor SA
20.22
0.19
0.95%
PAM
Pampa Energia SA
80.34
12.46
18.36%
ENIC
Enel Chile SA
4.48
0.83
22.84%
CEPU
Central Puerto SA
12.64
3.90
44.69%
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Corporate Events
Copel Board Approves R$706 Million Interest on Equity and 2025 Form 20-F Filing
Aug 13, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Copel’s board of directors approved a proposal to distribute R$706 million in interest on equity, based on retained earnings, to shareholders of record as of April 29, 2026. The company’s common shares will trade ex-...
Copel Board Approves Q2 2026 Results and BNDES-Backed R$4 Billion Financing Plan
Aug 11, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Copel’s Board of Directors met in Curitiba and approved the consolidated interim financial statements for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, following review by the Statutory Audit Committee, an expected unqualified report f...
Copel Finalizes R$150 Million Sale of Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Stake to Gerdau
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Copel announced it had completed the sale of its 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A., the company that operates the Dona Francisca hydroelectric power plant, to Gerdau S.A. after securing all necessary corporate ...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Files August 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Issuer
Aug 6, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia – Copel, the Brazilian electric utility headquartered in Curitiba, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of August 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The report confi...
Copel Posts Strong 2Q26 Earnings, Boosts Investments and Shareholder Payouts
Aug 6, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Copel delivered strong operational and financial performance, with recurring EBITDA rising 20.8% year on year to R$ 1.61 billion and recurring net income up 42.6% to R$ 645.1 million. These results were supported by ...
Copel Updates Dividend Policy to Tighten Payout Rules and Leverage Targets
Jul 17, 2026
On July 15, 2026, Copel approved an updated dividend policy that defines how it will distribute dividends and interest on equity, aiming to make shareholder payouts more transparent and predictable. The policy reinforces principles of sustainabili...
Copel reports 7.2% rise in grid market billing in 2Q26
Jul 17, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel) is a Brazilian integrated electric utility based in Curitiba, Paraná, operating in power distribution, generation, trading and wind farms. Its primary business is supplying electricity to residential, c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.