Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis
Gevo
(BMV:GEVO)
No summary available
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- MXN 309.05M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 283
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -1.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.14
- Revenue Growth
- 100.11%
- EPS Growth
- -221.60%
- Country
- Mexico
- Employees
- 151
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Chemicals - Specialty
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. is a company focused on the development and commercialization of renewable fuels. Its operations are organized into four distinct segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company's primary objective is to offer...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
The call presented meaningful operational and commercial progress: revenue growth, a ~70% increase in six-month gross profit, CFR pathway approval in Canada, an upgraded 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to >$60M (double prior guidance), and clear near-term debottlenecking and expansion plans. These positives are tempered by a large one-time $176M impairment that produced a GAAP loss, higher non-impairment operating expenses, dependency on timely monetization of 45Z tax credits, and outstanding financing/offtake execution risks for larger expansion and ATJ projects. On balance, management demonstrated execution progress and improved cash/EBITDA trajectories, while acknowledging a set of execution and timing risks that remain to be addressed.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to materially stronger 2026 results: Q2 revenue was $47M (+7% YoY) and H1 revenue $89M (+23% YoY), Q2 gross profit $20M (43% margin) and H1 gross profit $36M vs $21M a year ago, Q2 adjusted EBITDA $11M, GAAP net loss $177M ($0.75/sh) and adjusted net loss $1M ($0.01/sh); cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $58M (plus ~$16M of 45Z proceeds collected post-quarter). Key forward metrics include expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of >$60M (vs prior $30M outlook), monetization of >$70M of 45Z tax credits in 2026 (vs $52M in 2025) with $20M already closed and ~ $50M remaining, a carbon business run rate of >$30M/year (ex‑banked CFR sales), sale of ~17M retroactive Canadian CFR credits to be recognized in Q3, a debottleneck to raise Gevo North Dakota capacity to ~75M gal/yr (≈10–15% uplift) by year‑end (debottleneck CapEx ~ $24M and fully funded), a targeted Stage 2 expansion to ~150M gal/yr with financing on track in H2 2026 and completion in 2028, FEL‑3 ATJ‑30 capex estimate of $600M for a 30M gal/yr project with FID targeted by year‑end, and a one‑time non‑cash impairment of $176M related to prior South Dakota work; management expects full‑year operating cash flow to be neutral to positive and meaningful positive cash flow in H2.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksGevo Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ALTO63Neutral
CLMT60Neutral
FF53Neutral
RYAM48Neutral
AMTX44Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | 63Neutral | $283.13M | 5.34 | 21.15% | ― | 1.09% | ― |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| CLMT | 60Neutral | $4.36B | -32.03 | 15.16% | ― | 12.80% | 70.13% |
| FF | 53Neutral | $248.71M | -8.10 | -19.75% | 2.47% | -7.63% | -15.10% |
| RYAM | 48Neutral | $447.13M | -3.18 | -52.28% | ― | -3.56% | 68.49% |
| AMTX | 44Neutral | $90.21M | -1.37 | 19.17% | ― | 2.95% | 43.31% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MX:GEVO | Gevo Inc | 21.97 | -21.03 | -48.91% | |
| CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products | 49.65 | 29.56 | 147.14% | |
| FF | Futurefuel | 5.67 | 1.94 | 51.89% | |
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients, Inc. | 3.65 | 2.61 | 250.96% | |
| RYAM | Rayonier Advanced Materials | 6.61 | -0.09 | -1.34% | |
| AMTX | Aemetis Inc | 1.25 | -0.83 | -39.90% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.