Geo Group (GEO1) AI Stock Analysis
Geo Group
(BMV:GEO1)
No summary available
Geo Group (GEO1) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- MXN 3.75B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 19
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 13.3
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.74
- Revenue Growth
- 4.94%
- EPS Growth
- 204.40%
- Country
- Mexico
- Employees
- 18,000
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. The company's opera...
Geo Group Earnings Call Summary
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: solid top-line growth (+15% revenue), outsized net income and EPS gains (63% and 71%), improved adjusted EBITDA (+20%), raised full-year guidance, meaningful new ICE contracts that add significant bed capacity and future revenue, and active share repurchases. Key risks and challenges cited include timing delays for several managed contracts (Florida facilities), a temporary lapse in skip-tracing revenue due to funding disruptions, modest near-term ISAP headcount growth despite favorable device/case mix, higher operating expenses from activations, and uncertainty around potential asset sales to ICE. On balance, positive execution and upgraded guidance substantially outweigh the operational and timing risks described on the call.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
GEO raised 2026 guidance and provided quarterly outlooks: full‑year GAAP net income of $168–175M ($1.27–1.32/sh) on revenues of $2.95–3.05B with adjusted EBITDA of $550–560M and an effective tax rate of ~30% (incl. known discretes); total unreimbursed CapEx of $135–145M for 2026 (expected to drop below $100M in 2027). Quarterly targets are Q3 GAAP net income $45–48M ($0.35–0.37/sh) on revenues $755–805M with adjusted EBITDA $140–145M, and Q4 GAAP net income $37–41M ($0.28–0.31/sh) on revenues $758–808M with adjusted EBITDA $137–142M. Balance sheet and capital return metrics at Q2: $55M cash, $1.54B total debt, ~ $1.5B net debt, net leverage <3x adjusted EBITDA, ~ $300M total available liquidity, repurchased ~1.6M shares for ~$37M in Q2 (10.1M shares/$177M repurchased since Aug‑2025), ~130M shares outstanding and ~$323M remaining under a $500M buyback authorization. Guidance excludes earnings from the new Bighorn and Rivers activations and from the rescheduled Graceville (1.88k beds) and Bay (985 beds) managed contracts (≈$100M combined) and assumes more moderate H2 labor cost savings.
Geo Group Risk Analysis
Geo Group disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geo Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksGeo Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ALLE82Outperform
ADT78Outperform
CXW69Neutral
BCO64Neutral
SPCB62Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE | 82Outperform | $15.72B | 23.10 | 32.68% | 1.16% | 10.33% | 8.70% |
| ADT | 78Outperform | $7.20B | 12.80 | 16.83% | 2.23% | 2.10% | 6.68% |
| CXW | 69Neutral | $3.05B | 25.11 | 8.96% | ― | 24.35% | 32.67% |
| BCO | 64Neutral | $4.23B | 23.56 | 64.68% | 0.99% | 8.12% | 16.12% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| SPCB | 62Neutral | $63.18M | 62.88 | 1.94% | ― | 7.23% | -50.82% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MX:GEO1 | Geo Group Inc | 512.00 | 206.00 | 67.32% | |
| BCO | Brink's | 102.71 | -7.16 | -6.51% | |
| CXW | CoreCivic | 30.88 | 12.03 | 63.82% | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 186.44 | 24.14 | 14.88% | |
| SPCB | SuperCom Ltd. | 10.06 | -0.31 | -2.99% | |
| ADT | Adt, Inc. | 9.86 | 1.34 | 15.74% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.