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Core Natural Resources (CNR) AI Stock Analysis

MX:CNR

Core Natural Resources

(BMV:CNR)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Revenue and earnings recoveryThe sharp TTM revenue rebound and return to positive net income show meaningful recovery from the 2025 downturn. If sustained, improved scale and profitability can strengthen operating resilience and provide a better foundation for reinvestment and shareholder returns over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin and cyclical profitabilityThe recovery has not yet restored broad-based profitability, because gross and operating margins remain near breakeven or negative. The sharp decline after the strong 2022–2024 period demonstrates earnings cyclicality, making durable margin expansion uncertain over the next several quarters.

Core Natural Resources (CNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%MX:CNR0.00%SPY+12.58%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
MXN 4.31B
Dividend Yield
0.39%
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
42.3
Beta (1Y)
0.15
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
―
Country
Mexico
Employees
4,850
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Coal

Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Core Natural Resources, Inc., which rebranded from CONSOL Energy Inc. in January 2025, specializes in the global production and sale of bituminous coal. The company's business is primarily organized into two key segments. The Pennsylvania Mining Comp...

Core Natural Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026(Q1-2026)|% Change Since:0.00%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial turnaround: the company returned to profitability, delivered a sizable sequential adjusted EBITDA increase (~+75%), strengthened contracting and liquidity, executed significant shareholder returns, and progressed merger synergies and diversification into aerospace. Offsetting risks include short-term cost pressures (power and diesel), some operational disruptions (PMC sand/rock intrusions, West Elk rail/inventory constraints, PRB dragline downtime), market volatility in met and thermal export markets, and working capital timing impacts on free cash flow. Management maintained guidance and conveyed confidence that many Q1 headwinds will normalize, but outcomes depend on fuel prices, rail/logistics improvements and timing of insurance recoveries.

Positive Updates

Return to Profitability and Strong Adjusted EBITDA
Reported net income of $21 million ($0.41 per diluted share) in Q1 2026, a swing from a net loss of $79 million in Q4 2025. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $180 million in Q1 2026 from $103 million in Q4 2025 (≈+75%).

Negative Updates

Elevated High CV Cash Costs in Q1
High CV cash costs increased to $42.56/ton in Q1 from $41.42/ton in Q4 2025 (≈+2.8%), driven by an Arctic winter surge in power prices and several weeks of difficult mining conditions (sand/rock intrusions) at the Pennsylvania Mining Complex.

Company Guidance

Management said it is generally maintaining 2026 guidance while materially increasing sold positions: High CV Thermal added 5.6 million tons to 29.1 million tons contracted (≈94% contracted at the midpoint; committed/collar average coal revenue $57.85/ton), Metallurgical added 1.6 million tons to 8.3 million coking tons contracted for 2026 (≈3.8 million tons priced at an expected $122.40/ton), and PRB contracted position is roughly 48 million tons at an expected average coal revenue of $14.20/ton; they reiterated cash SG&A will phase down as residual integration costs abate, expect cost improvements as longwalls exit tough conditions and power prices normalize, but warned elevated diesel could weigh on PRB margins. In 1Q26 the company reported adjusted EBITDA $180M (Met segment adj. EBITDA $58M; CMT $16M), net income $21M ($0.41/sh), cash costs and realizations by segment (e.g., High CV realized $58.86/ton with cash cost $42.56/ton; Met realized $122.11/ton, cash cost $92.35/ton; PRB realized $14.39/ton, cash cost $13.64/ton), spent $73M capex, generated $56M free cash flow, ended the quarter with $935M liquidity ($413M cash) and expect to collect roughly $100M more of insurance proceeds; they reaffirm a capital return target of ~75% of free cash flow (returned $47M in Q1, 85% of FCF, including $42M in buybacks and $5M dividends).

Core Natural Resources Risk Analysis

Core Natural Resources disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Core Natural Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

  • Finance & Corporate18
  • Tech & Innovation2
  • Legal & Regulatory10
  • Production13
  • Ability to Sell5
  • Macro & Political5
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

MX:CNR against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ARLPARLP82Outperform$3.44B10.9517.21%9.13%-1.92%26.98%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
HCCHCC61Neutral$4.54B19.7710.02%0.39%37.47%439.91%
AMRAMR53Neutral$2.02B-42.96-2.99%―-12.92%-25.84%
METCMETC49Neutral$415.71M-5.58-13.54%―-17.65%-157.95%
BTUBTU47Neutral$2.70B-14.00-5.29%1.42%-0.68%-233.93%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%MX:CNRARLPAMRMETCHCCBTUDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MX:CNR and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.1440.000.000.00%
ARLPAlliance Resource Partners26.293.9517.69%
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.154.22-16.60-9.72%
METCRamaco Resources6.59-20.00-75.22%
HCCWarrior Met Coal82.2317.6527.33%
BTUPeabody Energy (BTU)21.05-8.03-27.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.